ArchitectureIQ: On the Measure of Training Intuition
Organizations: MetaCircle (元环智能) · Tsinghua University · Peking University · University of California, Berkeley · Fudan University · University of Science and Technology of China · Shanghai Qizhi Institute
Abstract
Top researchers have good intuition, but do language models have as good intuition about model training as top AI researchers? To measure model intuition of LLMs and humans, we introduce the ArchitectureIQ benchmark. Each question presents a synthetic dataset and several training recipes, and the test-taker is asked to predict the recipe yielding the best test metric. Overall, we find that LLMs' model intuition is good but has four limitations: (1) The intuition is imperfect, or even sub-human in some cases. Frontier models achieve around 76% accuracy (random choice 33%) vs best human researcher (66.0%), yet remain far from perfect. For architecture-only questions, best human achieves 65% while GPT-6 Astra only has 38%. (2) The intuition is empirical, not structured, supported by the fact that more CoT compute does not lead to substantial improvement. Unlike math, we still lack a "Science of AI" language that enables structured reasoning on AI. (3) The intuition is not maximally condensed, and can be further compressed into a knoledge base. Our constructed knowledge base with only 20 items yields large gains for weak models: GPT-4o equipped with the accumulated knowledge almost matches the performance of Claude Opus 5. (4) The intuition is insensitive to dataset properties, but the best model should in general depend on data properties. This suggests that data is the real "dark matter" in AI -- LLMs (so do human researchers) understand too little about data, even less than model architectures.
Figures & tables
| Model | Zero-shot | 10-shot |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 64.0% | 60.0% |
| DeepSeek V4 Flash | 62.0% | 65.0% |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 62.0% | 60.0% |
Appendix figures & tables13 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Family | Questions | Input / output | Generating structure | Train / test | Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univariate regression | 100 | Scalar / scalar | Sampled symbolic function | 256 / 256 | MSE |
| Multivariate regression | 100 | -vector / scalar | Multivariate symbolic function | 256 / 256 | MSE |
| Bigram language modeling | 100 | Token sequence / next tokens | First-order Markov chain | 800 / 200 | CE |
| General tabular classification | 100 | -vector / binary label | Additive, interaction, or piecewise rule | 1,024 / 2,048 | CE |
| XOR classification | 50 | -vector / binary label | Sign interaction of two coordinates | 1,024 / 2,048 | CE |
| Spiral classification | 50 | Two-dimensional point / binary label | Two interleaved spiral arms | 1,024 / 2,048 | CE |
| Question type | Varying components | Additional fixed components | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Architecture-only | Model configuration | Complete optimizer configuration | 170 |
| Optimizer-only | Optimizer configuration | Complete model configuration | 168 |
| Mixed | Model and optimizer configurations | None beyond the shared controls | 162 |
| Model | Overall | Architecture | Optimizer | Mixed |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 76.4 | 58 | 87 | 85 |
| Claude Opus 5 | 76.0 | 61 | 86 | 81 |
| Claude Fable 5 | 72.2 | 48 | 87 | 83 |
| DeepSeek V4 Flash | 70.6 | 48 | 85 | 80 |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 68.4 | 44 | 83 | 79 |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 67.8 | 42 | 85 | 77 |
| Metric | Claude Opus 5 | GPT-5.6 Sol | GPT-5.6 Luna | DeepSeek V4 Flash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pairs | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 |
| Side A accuracy | 0.538 | 0.519 | 0.635 | 0.615 |
| Side B accuracy | 0.423 | 0.404 | 0.365 | 0.327 |
| Combined accuracy | 0.481 | 0.462 | 0.500 | 0.471 |
| Answer-change rate | 0.231 | 0.058 | 0.096 | 0.059 |
| Model | Acc. | Arch. | Opt. | Mixed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Astra (max) | 52.0 | 0.280 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Claude Fable 5 | 48.0 | 0.220 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 46.9 |
| Claude Opus 5 | 48.0 | 0.220 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 46.9 |
| DeepSeek V4 Flash | 48.0 | 0.220 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 46.9 |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 48.0 | 0.220 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 46.9 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro (high) | 48.0 | 0.220 | 60.0 | 37.5 | 46.9 |
| Model | Same pick (%) | Both right (%) | Exactly one (%) | Neither (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Astra (max) | 84.0 | 12.0 | 80.0 | 8.0 |
| Claude Fable 5 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 4.0 |
| Claude Opus 5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 4.0 |
| DeepSeek V4 Flash | 88.0 | 4.0 | 88.0 | 8.0 |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 84.0 | 8.0 | 80.0 | 12.0 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro (high) | 76.0 | 12.0 | 72.0 | 16.0 |
| Model | Low | Medium | High | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Astra | 44.0 | 44.9 ‡ | 48.0 | 52.0 |
| Claude Opus 5 | 46.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 42.0 | 44.0 | 40.0 | 48.0 |
| GPT-5.6 Sol † | 48.0 | 32.0 | 44.0 | 46.0 |