Completion-Aware Cross-Fidelity Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Line Bus Holding

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) offers a path to policy improvement from logged data alone, using historical returns or other measurable outcomes as world feedback. A key difficulty is improving observed behavior without extrapolating beyond what the offline data supports. We propose \emph{counterfactual transport flows}, a source-conditioned trajectory refinement framework for offline decision-making guided by world feedback. Given a low-feedback candidate trajectory, we construct local preference pairs from offline data by retrieving nearby trajectories in latent trajectory space with higher task-specific feedback, and use them as weak supervision for conservative refinement. The framework learns instance-specific refinement directions: at inference time, a refinement strength parameter controls how far the candidate trajectory is transported, enabling a trade-off between preserving the original behavior and applying stronger improvement. Experiments on D4RL benchmarks, including AntMaze and MuJoCo tasks, show that our method improves behavior from historical returns as world feedback, while providing interpretable trajectory-level refinement paths.

Background: Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables effective policies to be trained from large, previously collected datasets and subsequently improved through limited online interaction. This offline-to-online RL (O2O-RL) paradigm is particularly promising in nonstationary domains where interaction is costly or potentially hazardous. Standard O2O-RL pipelines train multiple candidate policies offline, evaluate them using off-policy or online evaluation, and then deploy and fine-tune the policy with the highest estimated value. However, as in offline pretraining, fine-tuning performance is highly sensitive to the choice of algorithm and hyperparameters, making it risky to commit to a single policy. Objectives: We study active policy selection for fine-tuning under a limited interaction budget in O2O-RL settings. To our knowledge, this is the first work to address this problem. Methods: We formulate the problem by identifying a fundamental trade-off between allocating online interactions to policy evaluation, which helps identify high-performing policies, and allocating them to fine-tuning, which improves policy performance. We then propose an approach that balances this trade-off by actively selecting policies for fine-tuning based on upper-confidence bounds on their future performance. These bounds are derived from locally linear performance forecasts fitted to observations obtained through online evaluation. Results: Across a diverse range of experiments, the proposed approach consistently outperforms existing O2O-RL baselines. Conclusions: Actively selecting and fine-tuning policies uses limited online interaction budgets more effectively than either committing to a single policy or dividing the budget equally among all policies. Our framework also advances offline RL toward practical deployment in real-world systems where online interaction is costly or risky.

Offline RL (ORL) promises safe and sample-efficient deployment but existing methods rely on undocumented online interactions for hyperparameter tuning and lack reliable fully offline estimates of initial online performance. We introduce SOReL, a fully offline Bayesian model-based RL method that learns a posterior over dynamics, estimates policy value via predictive uncertainty, and enables complete offline hyperparameter selection. We further propose TOReL, which extends this tuning framework to arbitrary model-free and model-based ORL algorithms. We provide a regret analysis showing that Bayesian offline RL achieves the minimax-optimal parametric rate under standard regularity conditions. Together, our methods establish a practical and theoretically grounded framework for fully offline RL.