Grounding Time-Series Foundation Models in Digital Twin Topology for Predictive Maintenance

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is essential for industrial predictive maintenance, yet many learning-based approaches rely on extensive feature engineering or large labeled datasets to train task-specific sequence models. In this work, we introduce a lightweight learning approach, in which we leverage a frozen pretrained time-series foundation model (TSFM) and combine it with a small regression head for RUL estimation from multivariate sensor streams. More specifically, we use Chronos-2 as a frozen backbone to extract context window features and train a lightweight regression neural network for RUL prediction. Experiments on real-world industrial sensor data from two device types show that Chronos-2 features consistently improve over recurrent, convolutional, Transformer-based, and gradient-boosting baselines under the same preprocessing and evaluation protocol. We further analyze the impact of context length and find that performance improves significantly with longer histories, indicating that TSFM representation offer a practical and data-efficient alternative for RUL estimation in industrial settings.

Engineering Digital Twins and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems rely on robust perception modules to extract actionable information from heterogeneous and non-stationary time-series data. However, most existing approaches remain task-specific, data-hungry, and difficult to integrate into scalable monitoring and decision-making pipelines. Moreover, purely data-driven models often lack robustness and transferability across varying operating conditions. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a modular foundation model for time-series perception based on a collection of pretrained representation encoders. The framework leverages self-supervised learning on heterogeneous datasets to learn transferable and task-agnostic representations, which can be reused across multiple PHM tasks. A gating mechanism is introduced to dynamically select relevant encoders for a given target dataset, enabling conditional computation and adaptive model composition. The selected representations are projected into a shared latent space and aggregated using a Transformer-based self-attention module that explicitly models cross-encoder interactions. The resulting architecture supports multiple downstream tasks, including imputation, long-term forecasting, and few-shot learning, through lightweight task-specific heads, while keeping pretrained encoders frozen during adaptation. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the complementary roles of self-supervised pretraining, encoder selection, representation alignment, and adaptive aggregation. Experimental results on the ETT benchmark show competitive performance across tasks, while a real-world industrial case study on virtual sensing for hydro-generator rotor temperature highlights the practical relevance of the approach.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) leverage extensive pretraining to accurately predict unseen time series during inference, without the need for task-specific fine-tuning. Through large-scale evaluations on standard benchmarks, we find that leading transformer-based TSFMs exhibit redundant components in their intermediate layers. We introduce a set of tools for mechanistic interpretability of TSFMs, including ablations of specific components and direct logit attribution on the residual stream. Our findings are consistent across several leading TSFMs with diverse architectures, and across a diverse set of real-world and synthetic time-series datasets. We discover that all models in our study are robust to ablations of entire layers. Furthermore, we develop a theoretical framework framing transformers as kernel regressors, motivating a purely intrinsic strategy for ablating heads based on the stable rank of the per-head projection matrices. Using this approach, we uncover the specific heads responsible for degenerate phenomena widely observed in TSFMs, such as parroting of motifs from the context and seasonality bias. Our study sheds light on the universal properties of this emerging class of architectures for continuous-time sequence modeling.