Encoded but Disconnected: Decomposing Vision-Language Model Failures under a Patching Null

Vision-language models (VLMs) perform well on visual question answering with high-quality images but struggle when questions require knowledge beyond what is clearly and directly visible. In such settings, uncertainty quantification should not only indicate whether the model is likely to fail but also diagnose why it is uncertain, across dimensions such as perception, entity recognition, and knowledge retrieval. While prior work has focused on individual failure modes in isolation or treated incorrect answers as monolithic failures, we propose a unified framework for disentangling these failure modes and investigate whether pre-generation signals can predict these failure sources. Across a range of datasets and model families, we find a consistent pattern in VLM errors: some failures arise from visual or recognition bottlenecks, while others persist after the relevant entity is identified. Our main finding is that these failure sources can be predicted before decoding: recognition-related failures are best captured by visual-token representations, while failures that remain after recognition are better captured by prompt-conditioned hidden states. This pre-generation signal enables efficient failure-source prediction before the model produces an answer, allowing uncertain cases to be routed to targeted interventions such as image repair, entity recognition support, or external retrieval.

When a Vision-Language Model (VLM) sees a blue banana and answers "yellow", is the problem of perception or arbitration? We explore the question in ten VLMs with various sizes and reveal an Encoding-Grounding Dissociation: models that fail to report what they see (and thus provide a wrong answer) still encode the visual evidence as strongly as models that provide the correct answer. Using Multimodal Arbitration Crossover (MAC) analysis with layer-by-layer Logit Lens probing, we track the competition between visual and prior signals across every layer of each model. We show that visual attributes can be linearly decodable from early layers (AUC > 0.86). The accuracy remains nearly identical for both successful and failed samples. However, the gap in the final-layer logit - not the strength of encoding - better predicts grounding outcomes with a correlation of $ρ=$ 0.847. After having studied when VLMs base their answers on image clues rather than prior knowledge, we want to understand the causal relationships. We establish causality through full-sequence activation patching. The standard last-token interventions in LLM interpretability do not affect VLMs. In contrast, replacing the full token sequence at layers identified by MAC alters 60 to 84% of outputs. Partial-token decomposition shows that image tokens carry almost all of the causal impact, while text tokens have none. Scaling addresses the remaining architectural differences to achieve perfect retention. Moving from diagnosis to intervention, we show that training-free activation steering - both linear and sparse autoencoder-guided - in early layers can improve visual grounding by up to +3.8% with degrading performance in some setups. Overall, these findings lead to a clear conclusion: VLMs already see well, but the challenge is acting on what they see. Targeted interventions can help to bridge this gap.

Vision-language models can describe an image with remarkable accuracy, yet a more fundamental question remains unanswered: what visual information actually drives their answers? In this work, we investigate this question through causal tracing, and we observe that highly causal vision tokens often lie outside the target region. Extending the analysis to larger vision-language models reveals a similar pattern across models and corruption settings, suggesting that strong multimodal performance does not necessarily imply spatially localized causal representations. We further investigate: can these models preserve visual structure when appearance cues are removed? and find that visual cues are exploited to understand visual structures. Together, our experiments expose a gap between seeing, using, and reasoning over visual structure, and provide a causal framework for studying how visual information is transformed, preserved, and ultimately used by modern vision-language models.