Towards Robust Numerical Claim Verification

Automated verification of numerical claims is a challenging problem, as it requires both language understanding and quantitative reasoning. This paper describes our system for CLEF 2026 CheckThat! Task 2, which focuses on ranking reasoning traces generated by large language models (LLMs) and predicting a final verdict for numerical claims in English and Arabic. We explore two approaches. The first approach fine-tunes an LLM-based verifier using LoRA to score each reasoning trace independently as a binary classification problem, and selects the final verdict using Best-of-N selection. We further experiment with adaptive sub-claim decomposition to break complex claims into simpler parts before verification. The second approach uses a lightweight TF-IDF reward model with handcrafted numeric and temporal overlap features to score traces, and aggregates scores by verdict group to determine the final prediction. For Arabic, we compare a general multilingual model against AraBERT, a language-specific model pretrained on Arabic text. Our results show that the LLM-based approach outperforms the lightweight reward model on most metrics, particularly Recall@5, while the reward-based approach shows stronger performance on the Conflicting class. Sub-claim decomposition did not improve performance, suggesting that claim splitting introduces noise rather than aiding reasoning. For Arabic, AraBERT outperforms the multilingual baseline across most metrics.

Large language models achieve strong performance on arithmetic reasoning benchmarks, and one common response to arithmetic brittleness is to delegate computation to code. Yet models are still often used in settings where they must reason directly from natural language, and trustworthy models should solve small-number arithmetic word problems without external tools. Prior work shows that LLMs are sensitive to numerical variation: a model may solve an original problem but fail on structurally similar variants requiring the same reasoning procedure with different numbers. We ask whether this fragility persists under a stricter setting involving small, schema-preserving numeric changes that retain the original reasoning program and avoid large-number stress tests. We introduce an automatic algorithm for generating numeric-remapping attacks on arithmetic word problems. Unlike template-based perturbation methods requiring manual schemas or constraints, our approach derives problem-specific symbolic representations, generates constrained numeric remappings, recomputes gold answers, and realizes transformed questions through deterministic edits guided by LLM-generated edit plans. Stage-wise validation and a high-confidence audit retain reliable attacks, making the pipeline scalable with limited human intervention. We evaluate DeepSeek-R1 (70B), Gemma4 (31B), and GPT-OSS (120B) on GSM8K, MAWPS, and MultiArith. On GSM8K, completed runs show conditional accuracy drops of 12.16 to 25.82 percentage points. MAWPS and MultiArith are far more stable, with most attacked accuracies near or above 98%. These results show that numeric-remapping robustness depends strongly on dataset structure: GSM8K remains sensitive even when reasoning programs are preserved and answers are recomputed, while shorter, more regular datasets are more robust.

Large Language Models such as GPT-4o and GPT-5 achieve strong zero-shot performance on biomedical claim verification, but cost and opacity limit scalable use. We fine-tune three small LLMs: Phi-3-mini (3.8B), Qwen2.5-3B, and Mistral-7B, via QLoRA on SciFact and HealthVer, providing the first study of QLoRA models against GPT-4o and fine-tuned BioLinkBERT encoders. Mistral-7B QLoRA surpasses both GPT-4o and GPT-5 (up to 12% F1 gain) at a fractional cost using just 1,008 training examples. We conduct extensive in-domain and cross-domain evaluation: models trained on SciFact tested on HealthVer and vice versa, at matched sizes to isolate dataset structure from data quantity. We identify a previously unreported structural artifact in SciFact that inflates in-domain scores, and show through bidirectional out-of-domain evaluation that training on structurally sound data enables robust cross-domain transfer. We plan to release all code and adapter checkpoints.