Kepler: Auditable World Models for ARC-AGI-3

We evaluate an initial coding-agent system for ARC-AGI-3 in which the agent maintains an executable Python world model, verifies it against previous observations, refactors it toward simpler abstractions as a practical proxy for an MDL-like simplicity bias, and plans through the model before acting. The system is intentionally direct: it uses a scripted controller, predefined world-model interfaces, verifier programs, and a plan executor, but no hand-coded game-specific logic. The agent-facing prompts, workspace, and controller contain no game-specific code, game-specific prompts, hand-coded heuristics, hidden solutions, or other game-specific information; the same agent and prompts are used across games. Because the coding agent has broad system access, we audit unintended information channels, describe earlier vulnerable harnesses, and explain how the current harness closes observed leakage channels while reducing benchmark-specific information exposure. We report results on the 25 public ARC-AGI-3 games. Each playthrough starts from a fresh agent instance and clean workspace, with no access to files or conversation state from earlier playthroughs. With GPT-5.5 high reasoning effort, the agent fully solved 15 games and achieved a mean per-game RHAE of 58.12%. With GPT-5.4 high reasoning effort, it fully solved 8 games and achieved a mean per-game RHAE of 41.29%. Performance on the private validation set, which is not yet available to us, remains to be tested. Overall, the results provide preliminary evidence that verifier-driven executable world models are a promising approach for ARC-AGI-3 agents. Full run artifacts are released with the code at https://github.com/astroseger/arc-3-agents-baseline1.

ARC-AGI-3 turns abstraction into an interactive problem of skill acquisition. A player must infer an unfamiliar game's rules, hidden state, and goal while maintaining action efficiency because every move counts. We formalize these environments as parameterized rendered deterministic Moore machines and introduce Tycho, a coding-agent system that constructs and uses game-specific models during interaction. Tycho separates actionable observations from intermediate animation, level-completion, and game-over frames. From this structured history, an agent can model, test, plan with, repair, or bypass a free-form executable hypothesis. In one matched public-set run per policy, we compare four orchestration policies on all 25 public games using Claude Opus 4.8 under matched inference budgets. Actor-requested delegation to a model builder obtains the highest observed mean Relative Human Action Efficiency (RHAE), 88.49. With this selected policy, GPT-5.6 Sol and Opus 5 both reach 100.00 RHAE and complete all 183 levels. Their game-balanced first-run human-replay midranks are 98.5 and 100.0. Opus 5 uses 61% fewer scored actions than the aggregate official human baselines. Automatic repair after verification failures produces models that reproduce observed transitions much more accurately, yet reaches only 83.07 RHAE. Transition match indicates whether a simulator reproduces observed dynamics, not whether it has identified the objective or improves the next action. Strong play also requires deciding when to construct, repair, use, or bypass a model. We call this joint problem active abstraction: generating a testable model from costly interaction and deciding when acquiring or using it is worth its cost.

We systematically investigate all 25 public ARC-AGI-3 games and find that every one is reachable through non-intelligent strategies: 10 in a single blind step, 5 after one probing action, 1 via repeated ACTION1 presses, 1 via diverse exploration, and 8 via single repeated actions with sufficient budget (50-200 steps). A library-level null-coordinate vulnerability additionally bypasses 18 games in 1 step. This benchmark critique implies the public evaluation set cannot discriminate intelligent exploration from trivial heuristics - the private 55-game evaluation is the only genuine intelligence test. Against this backdrop, we present AERA (Adaptive Epistemic Reasoning Agent), a three-phase (EXPLORE / VERIFY / PLAN) agent achieving RHAE=0.2116 (4/25 solved) on these 25 games with Qwen2.5-0.5B, while random and no-explore baselines score 0.0000. We formalise AERA through a Speed--Depth trade-off framework: under a convexity assumption (proved for a class of environments in the Appendix), RHAE's quadratic form emerges as a second-order penalty for deviating from the Pareto frontier between action efficiency and information gain. Contributions: (i) a benchmark validity analysis showing that current interactive reasoning benchmarks fail to measure the exploration they claim to require, and (ii) the EXPLORE-before-PLAN framework and model-capability x exploration interaction. The linked code track entry achieves RHAE=0.30 on the full 55-game private evaluation. Code: CC0.