Cross-cohort TB classification using clinical data gathered in Uganda and South Africa
Authors: Joshua M. Jansen van Vüren, Devendra S. Parihar, Daphne Naidoo, Marisa Klopper, Frank Cobelens, Lutz Kolbe, Kimsey Zajac, Willy Ssengooba, +3 more
Organizations: Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa · South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research (CTR) Division of Molecular Biology and Human Genetics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa · Department of Global and Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany · Department of Medical Microbiology, College of Health Sciences Makerere University, Biomedical Research Center (MAKBRC), Kampala, Uganda
We present a first evaluation of machine learning applied to patient clinical and demographic data gathered in two different countries for the purpose of tuberculosis (TB) screening to identify people who would benefit from expensive molecular testing. Experiments are based on the recently-compiled CAGE-TB dataset, which includes sub-cohorts of people with presumptive TB presenting at community health care centres in South Africa and Uganda. Three neural network architectures (logistic regression (LR), multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and convolutional neural networks (CNN)) are considered in conjunction with greedy feature selection. For the convolutional neural network, a strategy that jointly optimises feature selection and feature ordering is proposed and shown to lead to consistent development and test set improvements. For all three models, development set area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve is improved by 2-7% using feature selection. LR after feature selection achieves an AUROC of 0.8 [0.75,0.86] (95% CI) and 0.84 [0.78,0.9] when testing on the held-out Ugandan and South African data respectively. Although outperforming LR on the development cohort, the deeper networks (MLP, CNN) show inconsistent trends on the held-out cohorts, while LR achieves performance within 1-2% of the best achieved in terms of AUROC. LR narrowly misses the WHO minimum requirements by 4-9% in sensitivity even though the network is being evaluated on a completely held-out cohort. The development of neural-network based classifiers for TB screening therefore appears viable.
Figures & tables
Feature
Type
Age
Quantitative (years)
Sex
Binary ( female, male )
Dyspnea
Binary ( yes, no )
Chest pain
Binary ( yes, no )
Previous TB
Binary ( yes, no )
Night sweats
Binary ( yes, no )
TABLE I : Clinical and demographic data gathered for each participant in the data used for experimentation.
Country
Fold
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total
SA
# Pos
5
6
8
6
7
8
6
7
9
7
69
# Neg
29
27
33
29
25
27
31
28
24
25
278
UG
# Pos
10
8
8
10
9
9
8
9
10
13
94
# Neg
31
29
22
32
31
30
24
25
25
31
280
Total
# Pos
15
14
16
16
16
17
14
16
19
20
163
# Neg
60
56
55
61
56
57
55
53
49
56
558
TABLE II : TB positive and negative participants per cross validation fold for the South African (SA) and the Ugandan (UG) sub-cohorts used for experimentation.
#
Layer type
Kernel dim
Num ( C )
Stride ( s )
Activation
1
Conv
(3×1)
20
1
ReLU
2
Max pool
(2×1)
-
1
-
3
Conv
(3×1)
50
1
ReLU
4
Max pool
(2×1)
-
1
-
5
Dense
-
-
-
Sigmoid
TABLE III : One-dimensional CNN structure reproduced from [ 15 ] . The output dimensions of all but the last layer depend on the input dimension.
Classifier
Hyperparameter
Range
SA
UG
LR
Learning rate
0.01, 0.001
0.01
0.001
LR
Batch size
8, 16, 32
8
32
LR
Epochs
1, … ,128
2
66
MLP
Activation
ReLU, Tanh
Sigmoid
Sigmoid
Sigmoid
MLP
Hidden layer
[16], [64]
TABLE IV : Hyperparameters and the ranges considered during optimisation. Optimal hyperparameters for LR and the MLP are presented for the subset of features identified during SFS. Optimal parameters for the CNN are presented after the joint optimisation of the order and chosen features of the input vector. SA: Optimal hyperparameters for South Africa, UG: Optimal hyperparameters for Uganda.
Fig. 1 : Illustration of ten-fold cross-cohort cross validation. In the cross validation loop, each of the ten folds is held out in turn as a development set for hyperparameter optimisation, while the entire held-out cohort is used as a test set.
Model
South Africa Dev AUROC
Uganda Test
AUROC
Spec @ Sens
LR
0.84 ± 0.08
0.77 [0.72,0.82]
0.23 @ 0.97
LR (SFS)
0.87 ± 0.05
0.80 [0.75,0.86]
0.62 @ 0.81
CNN
0.84 ± 0.06
0.72 [0.66,0.79]
0.55 @ 0.78
CNN (SFS)
0.91 ± 0.03
0.76 [0.71,0.82]
0.61 @ 0.80
MLP
0.88 ± 0.04
0.82 [0.77,0.87]
0.36 @ 0.94
TABLE V : Classifier average development ( ± stddev) and test (95% CI DeLong [ 24 ] ) performance. Spec @ Sens: Test set specificity and sensitivity from threshold determined to achieve 90% sensitivity on average over the development set. Development set values are presented as mean and standard deviation over cross validation folds.
Fig. 2 : Average development set AUROC for each of the three considered architectures (LR: Logistic regression, MLP: Multi-layer perceptron, CNN: Convolutional neural network) during sequential feature selection (SFS) for the South African cohort (top) and Ugandan cohort (bottom). Horizontal axis denotes the dimensionality of the feature vector.
Fig. 3 : Average development set AUROC over 250 CNN retraining runs, each using a different random ordering of the full input vector. Bins widths are 0.5%.
Fig. 4 : Average development set AUROC after including each variable during sequential feature selection for either the South Africa (a) or Ugandan (b) cohorts.
Fig. 5 : Neural network cross-cohort performance. Models are trained and thresholds determined on one cohort and tested on the held-out cohort. Stars ( ⋆ ) and crosses ( × ) represent classifier operating points with and without SFS respectively after optimising the threshold on the development set to obtain 90% sensitivity. Plus ( + ) represents the minimum WHO requirements for a screening test. OP: Operating point.
We consider the fusion of lung ultrasound images with routinely-collected clinical and demographic data for the purpose of automated tuberculosis (TB) screening using deep-learning. Such deep-learning based screening tools for TB could meaningfully support the health care system in Africa, where the burden of disease is severe and resources are constrained. Beginning with an established ResNet baseline for classification of lung ultrasound images, which achieves an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.91 [0.86,0.96] (95% CI), we consider the incorporation of the clinical and demographic data using three fusion approaches. We find that a simple average-based fusion of the output scores of separately-trained image and clinical data classifiers consistently matches or outperforms a more complex approach where the data is fused earlier and a combined classifier is trained. Fusing the image and the clinical classifiers in this way leads to a classifier with an overall AUROC of 0.95 [0.91,0.99] (specificity of 0.76 at sensitivity 0.93) which is an improvement of 4% absolute over the image-only baseline. We also find that greedy feature selection can be used to reduce the number of clinical and demographic inputs without sacrificing classification performance. Finally, when we differentiate between clinical and demographic data that are self-reported, that require some basic measurement or calculation, and that require a point-of-care (POC) test, we find the inclusion of the POC tests included in this study to be of minimal benefit to classification performance. We conclude that the incorporation of routinely-collected clinical and demographic data is a promising way to improve the performance of lung ultrasound based automatic classification.
Joshua M. Jansen van Vüren, Christiaan M. Geldenhuys, Devendra S. Parihar +7
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa · Laboratory for intelligent Global Health and Humanitarian Response Technologies (LiGHT) Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland · National Teaching Hospital for Tuberculosis and Pulmonary Diseases (CNHU-PPC), Cotonou, Benin +1
Cough acoustics are promising for non-invasive tuberculosis (TB) screening, yet whether machine learning (ML) models capture disease-related acoustics or artifacts of data collection remains unresolved. We evaluated the cross-dataset generalizability of classical ML and deep learning (DL) cough-based TB classifiers across three independent datasets. Despite moderate within-dataset performance (ROC-AUC up to 0.755±0.056), both pipelines fail to generalize, with external performance frequently below 0.6, indicating a possible limitation of the data. We further observed audio representations are organized by recording device and dataset rather than TB status, predicted TB probability tracks country-level prevalence in CODA, and device mismatch degrades transfer while device-diverse training improves it. Additionally, a clinical-variable baseline generalizes more consistently (ROC-AUC 0.655−0.711), indicating acquisition-specific variability is a stronger driver of poor generalizability than population shift. High within-dataset performance is not enough. External validation is essential before cough-based TB models are clinically ready.
Wensi Zhang, Tomas Teijeiro, Jérôme Thevenot +1
Embedded Systems Laboratory, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland. · Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Spain. · University of the Basque Country (EHU), Leioa, Spain.
The automatic identification of cough segments in audio through the determination of start and end points is pivotal to building scalable screening tools in health technologies for pulmonary related diseases. We propose the application of two current pre-trained architectures to the task of cough activity detection. A dataset of recordings containing cough from patients symptomatic for tuberculosis (TB) who self-present at community-level care centres in South Africa and Uganda is employed. When automatic start and end points are determined using XLS-R, an average precision of 0.96 and an area under the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.99 are achieved for the test set. We show that best average precision is achieved by utilising only the first three layers of the network, which has the dual benefits of reduced computational and memory requirements, pivotal for smartphone-based applications. This XLS-R configuration is shown to outperform an audio spectrogram transformer (AST) as well as a logistic regression baseline by 9% and 27% absolute in test set average precision respectively. Furthermore, a downstream TB classification model trained using the coughs automatically isolated by XLS-R comfortably outperforms a model trained on the coughs isolated by AST, and is only narrowly outperformed by a classifier trained on the ground truth coughs. We conclude that the application of large pre-trained transformer models is an effective approach to identifying cough end-points and that the integration of such a model into a screening tool is feasible.
Joshua Jansen van Vüren, Devendra Singh Parihar, Daphne Naidoo +4
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa · DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Division of Molecular Biology and Human Genetics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa · Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany +1