What Will Post-Training Fix? Per-Problem Gains Are Shared Across Independent RL Runs, and Existing Checkpoints Predict Them Better Than A Priori Signals

Post-training is central to mathematical reasoning in modern large language models (LLMs), but endpoint pass@1 alone underidentifies what has changed. Gains may reflect newly reachable solutions, cheaper sampling of latent solutions, surface robustness, or memorisation. We compare three post-training paths under a common diagnostic readout: our sufficiently trained off-policy distillation trajectories, released Qwen3 off-policy-plus-on-policy distillation endpoints, and a released DeepSeek-Math endpoint trained with Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO). Our probe uses cross-surface pass@K over verbatim prompts, paraphrases, numerical isomorphisms, and translations, plus consistency, distribution-shape, and verified supervised-fine-tuning (SFT) membership analyses. We find two regimes. On easier AMC problems, large-K ceilings are near saturation, so post-training mainly compresses sample cost. On harder AIME problems, post-training expands the large-K ceiling over the base model: sufficient off-policy distillation already raises this ceiling, Qwen3 released endpoints raise it further, and DeepSeek-Math GRPO does not dominate sufficient off-policy distillation at large K. English-dominant distillation improves non-English reasoning but preserves language-tier gaps. A controlled-overfit audit finds limited sensitivity in current SFT-membership probes. Compression is one regime of post-training, not a universal explanation.

Post-training large language models usually applies a single training recipe to all samples, even though the model's own rollouts reveal different sample-level learning states. We propose Self-Routing, a behavior-conditioned post-training framework that uses rollout correctness and confidence to decide how each sample should be optimized. Depending on its behavior state, a sample is routed to GRPO, on-policy self-distillation, regularization, or skipping, allowing training to adapt without external teachers, extra annotations, or additional sampling. Experiments on mathematical reasoning across Qwen3 and Qwen3.5 backbones show that Self-Routing consistently improves over uniform GRPO, uniform OPSD, fixed mixtures, and simpler routing baselines. Further analyses show that the routing distribution changes over training and reduces unnecessary updates on low-signal or already stable samples.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) substantially improves mathematical reasoning, but what it adds to the base model remains unclear. We investigate this through a sequence of generation-time interventions on Qwen3-4B-Base, measuring how much of its RL-trained counterpart's gain each intervention recovers on 120 AIME problems. Power sampling with the same 8,192-token output limit brings no gain beyond greedy decoding. Yet borrowing the RL model's token only where the two models' greedy choices differ, roughly 4% of generated positions, recovers 90.5% of the pass@1 gain, with similar recovery across three model pairs on MATH-500. We find that even a single opening token has a substantial effect: forcing the base model to begin with "Alright" recovers 35% of the RL gain. The opening alone is insufficient, however. Later replacements after the same opening add another 5.2 percentage points to pass@1, and the fixed rules we test for inserting reflective words such as "Wait" do not reproduce this benefit. Sparse replacement also retains much of the base model's diversity while staying close to the RL model at pass@1. At k=256, it solves 67.5% of the problems, significantly more than the RL model (61.4%) and a mixture of whole responses matched in pass@1 (61.45%). The comparison is at equal attempt counts rather than equal compute, since rl-replace consults both models at every decoding step. These results show that the opening can recover a meaningful part of the RL gain, but a larger contribution comes from later choices, which can be borrowed while retaining much of the base model's diversity. Code is available at https://github.com/CyrusZhang04/WhatRLBrings.