From Scientific Observations to Mechanisms: Benchmarking Hypothesis Generation by AI Scientists

Scientific discovery requires not only recovering mathematical laws that describe observable behavior, but also identifying the mechanisms that generate them. Existing benchmarks for symbolic regression and scientific agents primarily evaluate phenomenal-law recovery, leaving mechanism discovery largely untested. We introduce MechBench, a benchmark that explicitly separates these two capabilities. Each task is defined by a mechanistic model, a structured set of scientifically meaningful relations whose joint consequences entail an observable phenomenal law, while agents receive only observational data and scientific context. We evaluate mechanism recovery through mechanism probes, which query internal scientific consequences that cannot be inferred from the phenomenal law alone. To reduce reliance on memorized textbook mechanisms, we construct unfamiliar variants through controlled, scientifically interpretable mutations of canonical mechanisms, and screen for mechanistic indistinguishability to exclude ambiguous instances admitting comparable competing mechanisms. Experiments across representative scientific agents reveal a substantial phenomenal--mechanism recovery gap: for Codex with GPT-5.6-sol, phenomenal-law accuracy reaches 35.00% on the Core-set while mechanism accuracy is only 13.75%, with mechanism recovery failing in 64.29% of cases where the phenomenal law is correctly recovered. The gap widens as mechanisms become increasingly mutated, and even providing the correct phenomenal law leaves mechanism recovery below 50%. These results reveal a substantial generalization gap in mechanistic reasoning and establish mechanism discovery as a distinct challenge beyond recovering observable scientific laws.

When Isaac Newton discovered the law of gravitation, he did so through an iterative process of analyzing observed data such as planetary patterns, finding the underlying mechanisms by describing patterns in mathematical equations, and refining his theory against the Moon's orbit, revealing the startling insight that the same force governs both falling apples and orbiting planets. Would it be possible for AI agents to make similar discoveries? To measure this ability, we introduce EurekaBench, a cross-domain benchmark that tests AI agents' ability to conduct long-horizon experiments and discover mechanisms that explain observations. We evaluate these mechanisms by the scientific insights that can be derived from them. EurekaBench contains an expert-verified set of 26 long-horizon tasks across neuroscience, computer science, chemistry, astrophysics, geophysics, and plasma physics, with a total of 306 scientific insights that the discovered mechanisms are expected to support. Our evaluation framework tests three axes of scientific discovery: agents' ability to follow known scientific constraints, the predictive accuracy of the discovered mechanisms, and whether these mechanisms yield scientific insights or inform future research. Our results show that current AI agents often overly fixate on predictive accuracy optimization, surpassing human scientists, while falling substantially short in deriving scientific insights.

Reliable automated research requires agents to vet data, verify analyses, and generate hypotheses grounded in trustworthy evidence, potentially reducing routine scientific workload while allowing scientists to focus on interpretation and discovery. Existing benchmarks often only assess analytical task completion or hypothesis generation separately rather than testing whether reliable evidence supports valid and novel claims. We introduce DISCERN (Data Integrity and Scientific Capability: Evidence, Reasoning, and Novelty), a controlled benchmark on real, publicly available datasets that evaluates three key levels of an automated research workflow. The first two levels test data integrity and analysis verification under confounds and tool traps, while the third tests hypothesis generation and revision under adversarial review, including counterfactual cases in which evidence consistent with real data and documented scientific phenomena conflicts with established expectations, motivating alternative explanations and testable hypotheses. Across 203 tasks, eight life-science tracks, and eight models, DISCERN shows that strong aggregate performance can mask level-specific weaknesses. Agents earn perfect scores in only 60.8% of Level 1, 34.2% of Level 2, and 0.6% of Level 3 evaluations, with penalties attributed to rejection of sound data, failure to carry recognized limitations into conclusions, and wide variation in hypothesis production. Cross-track rankings by token and code use are substantially more stable than rankings by evidence judgment, suggesting greater consistency in computational effort than in evidence-based reasoning. These profiles identify opportunities for supervised scientific assistance, but current agents do not yet demonstrate reliable autonomous analysis or discovery. Code and data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/discern-bench-anon/discern-benchmark