When Does Longer Reasoning Help? Predicting Mathematical Reasoning Through Discovery and Execution

Reasoning language models increasingly use test-time compute to improve performance, but existing evaluations typically study this compute one question at a time. Yet when multiple problems share an end-to-end cost or latency constraint, models must decide how to divide limited inference compute among them. We introduce an exam-style evaluation framework for studying this setting, in which a model must distribute one shared token budget across questions with different difficulty and point values to maximize its total score. Across several open and frontier reasoning models, we find that models fail to allocate a shared budget strategically across questions of varying difficulties and values. Models behave largely as greedy sequential solvers: they prioritize questions by presentation order, front-load effort on early questions, and remain insensitive to value, with these tendencies becoming more pronounced as the number of questions grows. Explicit planning prompts spread compute more evenly but do not produce value- or difficulty-aware prioritization. The same behavioral pattern extends from mathematical to code reasoning. These findings establish global budget allocation as a distinct capability that is not captured by conventional per-question evaluation and remains a challenge for current reasoning models.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) improve performance by allocating additional inference-time compute to generate extended chain-of-thought reasoning. However, recent studies reveal that sequential test-time scaling often yields diminishing or even negative returns, as longer traces exhibit increased uncertainty, error compounding, and drift from the original problem. We propose ThinkRetrieve, a test-time scaling framework that augments the reasoning traces of LRMs with dynamically retrieved solved examples at each reasoning step. Given an external corpus of problems paired with step-by-step solutions, ThinkRetrieve retrieves relevant exemplars at each intermediate step and injects them directly into the thinking trace, providing the model with guidance on how to reason rather than merely what facts are relevant. Experiments across five reasoning models (1.5B--8B parameters) on GSM-8K, MATH-500, AIME 2025, and SciQ demonstrate that ThinkRetrieve consistently improves accuracy over standard test-time scaling, with relative gains of up to $60\%$ on AIME 2025.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve strong performance on mathematical reasoning tasks but remain unreliable on challenging instances. Existing test-time scaling methods, such as repeated sampling, self-correction, and tree search, improve performance at the cost of increased computation, yet often exhibit diminishing returns on hard problems. We observe that output disagreement is strongly correlated with instance difficulty and prediction correctness, providing a useful signal for guiding instance-level strategy selection at test time. Based on this insight, we propose a training-free framework that formulates test-time scaling as an instance-level routing problem, rather than allocating more computation within a single strategy, dynamically selecting among different scaling strategies based on output disagreement. The framework applies lightweight resolution for consistent cases, majority voting for moderate disagreement, and rewriting-based reformulation for highly ambiguous instances. Experiments on seven mathematical benchmarks and three models show that our method improves accuracy by 3% - 7% while reducing sampling cost compared to existing approaches.