Confidence-Ordering Reversal under Contextual Priors in Neural Decoding

In non-invasive neural language decoding, results can be inflated by sources that are not stimulus-evoked neural evidence: decoder priors, embedding-based metrics, and non-neural structural nuisances such as signal duration. The methodological challenge is therefore attribution: a reported gain is more informative when it can be traced to a specific source. We recast stimulus-locked MEG-to-audio retrieval as an auditing framework that separates apparent performance into three sources - structural shortcuts, window-level stimulus-locked evidence, and cross-window contextual aggregation - and provides a diagnostic for each. Signal-blind Gaussian noise reaches 66.3% Rank@1 (R@1) under variable-length decoding but collapses to near chance once fixed-duration windows and stimulus-identity splits are enforced, isolating structural leakage. Under these controls, fixed-window retrieval recovers measurable MEG-audio discriminability, while an oracle sentence-bucket diagnostic shows that 95.7% of Top-1 errors select the wrong sentence, localising the residual bottleneck to sentence-level competition. We audit this contextual source with Group Context Bias (GCB), an inference-time additive logit bias that pools sentence-consistent evidence across windows while leaving the base retrieval scores and candidate pool fixed. Used as a score-space intervention, GCB makes the contextual source measurable: R@1 shifts from 44% to 52% on Gwilliams and from 22% to 29% on MOUS under the same fixed setting. GCB is auditable under this design: its effect collapses under random-grouping perturbations and vanishes when local evidence is attenuated in MEG or is near chance in EEG, supporting its use as a controlled source-attribution intervention. These results suggest that brain-to-language performance should be source-attributed, not merely reported.

Order-agnostic language models (OALMs), including discrete diffusion language models (dLLMs), are trained to predict masked tokens under arbitrary conditioning sets, allowing sequences to be generated or scored under arbitrary reveal orders at inference time. In LLaDA-2.1, we report three findings. First, the learned conditionals are not exact factorizations of a coherent joint distribution: changing only the reveal order shifts target log-likelihood by up to 0.49 nats/token, so likelihood alone mixes content difficulty with path-dependent artifacts. Second, although confidence-first (CF) decoding is order-agnostic, its reveal orders are close to left-to-right (L2R) on content tokens. Third, we propose a complementary diagnostic based on the shape of the confidence trace. A uniform-spreading theorem shows that, at fixed total likelihood, target recoverability is maximized when per-step confidence is spread uniformly; the resulting deviation motivates $\mathrm{Var}(\log q_t)$ as a diagnostic for comparing decoding paths. Across C4 and four downstream benchmarks, low variance separates structured paths from random ordering, and variance is consistently associated with downstream correctness. These results support reporting mean confidence and confidence variance jointly when comparing OALM decoding paths.

Long-context evaluations often test whether a model can recover distant evidence, but recoverability does not guarantee behavioral influence. We test the prediction that a distant discourse anchor can remain explicitly recoverable yet fail to change the locally preferred reading of a familiar multiword expression; such failures should concentrate when the model's no-anchor default conflicts with the anchor, while prior-correct decisions remain largely preserved. We introduce Multiword Expression Effective Context Length (MWE-ECL), a bilingual diagnostic whose matched anchor-retrieval, no-anchor prior, and interpretation prompts measure explicit recoverability, model-observed defaults, and anchor-conditioned decisions, respectively. Across eight English deployment panels on a shared 0-128K grid, retrieval-control accuracy on prior-conflict items is 0.989-1.000, prior-conflict override spans 0.806-1.000 (0.809-1.000 after conditioning on correct retrieval), and preservation of prior-correct decisions remains 0.977-1.000. A same-call control querying retrieval and interpretation in one prompt reproduces the gap for DeepSeek V4 Pro (1.000 retrieval versus 0.900-0.920 interpretation), showing that separate invocations are not its sole explanation; smaller or absent gaps in the other two models bound its generality. For DeepSeek V4 Flash, separate prompt-fit tests retain perfect retrieval with lower interpretation at 512K and 1M, while foil-consistent cues shift the no-anchor prior far more than retrieval; cross-model cue effects are heterogeneous. A separately reported 10-family Chinese subset shows similar descriptive gaps, but imperfect retrieval for some models prevents an integration-only attribution. MWE-ECL therefore evaluates whether explicitly recoverable distant context changes a competing local semantic decision.