Belief-space planners with separately designed or off-the-shelf estimators may have access to state-relevant information the estimator does not observe. Consequently, even an estimator that minimizes mean-squared error under its own information can have a nonzero error mean when conditioned on planner information. When future corrections are intermittent and stochastic, differences between accepted and rejected error means introduce additional uncertainty terms to correction events that zero-mean assumptions ignore. In this paper, we propose a belief-space planning approach that predicts, propagates, and penalizes planner-conditioned estimator error along evaluated trajectories. A planner-conditioned estimator-error model combines affine error dynamics with a moment recursion that preserves stochastically-induced correction uncertainty. We describe a method by which to predict estimator error dynamics within specified operating regimes and incorporate predicted error moments into a task-weighted quadratic risk objective. We evaluate the approach in simulation for a tilt-rotor VTOL landing on a ship deck using receding-horizon planning. We find that conditioning on planner information reduced error-prediction loss for a command-blind EKF by 13.4% relative to a planner-ignorant model, with strongly regime and horizon-dependent forecasting abilities. In a small set of 16 paired closed-loop trials, the planner lowered the median terminal task gauge from 1.60 to 0.99, and predicted estimator error beyond 2s within a factor of 1.3, versus a 5.7-fold underprediction by covariance-only planning.
World models are typically trained and evaluated by prediction error, assuming that more accurate predictions lead to better decisions. We show that this assumption can fail because models with similar total error can differ substantially in planning performance when their errors occur on different state dimensions. We introduce Decision-Relevant Prediction Error (DRPE), which measures prediction error on the state dimensions that affect decisions. We also develop an iso-error evaluation protocol that varies error allocation while keeping total error fixed. In a factored gridworld with known state relevance and a standardized planner, we evaluate 55 controlled and learned models across different error levels and allocations. Total prediction error is weakly related to planning success (Spearman ρ=−0.25), whereas DRPE is strongly predictive (ρ=−0.84; −0.98 within the controlled family). Models with only a 1% difference in total error can differ by 60 percentage points in planning success (97% vs 37%). The relevant error also depends on the task, with model rankings reversing across tasks at the same total error. Deeper imagination further amplifies decision-relevant errors, while learned models exhibit systematic bias on rare but decision-critical events. We formalize sufficient conditions under which DRPE correctly ranks models and total prediction error cannot.
In many real-world robotic tasks, robots must generate dynamically feasible motions that reliably reach desired goals even under uncertainty. Yet existing sampling-based kinodynamic planners typically optimize accumulated trajectory costs and treat goal reaching as a feasibility check, rather than explicitly optimizing terminal-state quality, such as goal preference or goal-reaching reliability. In this work, we introduce a terminal-cost formulation for kinodynamic planning that allows terminal-state quality to be optimized alongside accumulated trajectory cost. We prove that AO-RRT, an asymptotically optimal kinodynamic planner, preserves its asymptotic optimality under this augmented objective. We further extend the formulation to belief space and prove that minimizing the Wasserstein distance between the terminal belief and the goal improves a lower bound on the probability of reaching the goal region. The resulting planner, KiTe, uses this terminal-cost objective to encode goal preferences and improve reliability under uncertainty. To support systems without analytical uncertainty models, we learn dynamics and process uncertainty directly from data and integrate the learned belief dynamics into planning. Experiments on Flappy Bird, Car Parking, and Planar Pushing show that KiTe consistently improves goal-reaching success under uncertainty. Real-world Planar Pushing experiments further demonstrate that KiTe can plan effectively with learned dynamics and uncertainty. Source code is available at https://github.com/elpis-lab/KiTe.
We present Informed Belief Localization Trees* (Informed BLT*), a sampling-based belief space planning (BSP) algorithm that scales to large outdoor digital twins with point-cloud observations. We adapt RRT* and Informed RRT* to belief space using the 2-Wasserstein (W2) metric. Assuming isotropic Gaussian beliefs, sampled belief states can be connected efficiently while accounting for available information and probabilistic collision constraints. This enables steering and rewiring without repeatedly propagating observations, and allows previously computed measurement information to be reused. We present a framework to generate semantically labelled digital twins for planning in real-world environments with point-cloud-based localization. Experiments in simulated environments and digital twins show faster initial solution discovery in most maps with competitive cost convergence.
Elliot Preston-Krebs, Abhishek Goudar, Timothy D. Barfoot
University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies (UTIAS), 4925 Dufferin St, Ontario, Canada.