Logarithmic Regret via Passive Change Detection in Piecewise-Stationary Self-Tuning Regulation

We propose a self-adaptive online learning for control method for tracking unknown target dynamics. The target dynamics can exhibit switching behavior, particularly, a mixture of structured, random, and/or adversarial motion. Such challenging target tracking scenarios arise in applications of dynamic mapping, traffic control, and pursuit evasion, where robots need to track, pursue, or avoid collision with moving landmarks, objects, humans, etc., whose dynamics are unknown. Our method simultaneously learns multiple predictors from scratch, via self-supervised, one-shot, and computationally efficient learning, and adaptively selects the best one to match the observed target behavior. The method enjoys finite-time near-optimality guarantees in expectation, characterized as a function of the learning error of the target dynamics and the frequency that the target dynamics switch. In the absence of both error and switching, the method asymptotically matches the optimal non-causal control policy that knows a priori the target dynamics, i.e., the method enjoys no regret in expectation. In the presence of learning errors and switching, the method degrades gracefully, \eg when there are errors and no switching, the average regret is proportional to the average learning error and switching times. To prove these guarantees, a novel technical approach is required compared to the existing works that employ RFF-based online learning. We validate our method in Crazyflie simulations and hardware experiments, across target trajectories that vary from structured to random to adversarial, in comparison to non-stochastic, kernel-based, and neural-network-based methods for online learning.

We study online prediction for marginally stable, partially observed linear dynamical systems under nonstochastic disturbances. Our objective is to minimize the cumulative squared prediction loss and compete with the best-in-hindsight Luenberger predictor. Standard online learning methods typically rely on bounded domains/gradients, and thus their guarantees may fail to deal with potentially unbounded trajectories in marginally stable systems. In this paper, we introduce an unconstrained online least squares method that stabilizes the learning process via tailored predictive hints. With model knowledge, we prove that hints constructed from any stabilizing Luenberger predictor render the hint residuals uniformly bounded, achieving logarithmic regret despite unbounded trajectory growth. We also discuss model-free prediction and introduce a simple universal hint for symmetric systems, under which logarithmic regret is maintained without model knowledge. Our results provide an adaptive, instance-wise optimal online predictor compared to classical fixed-gain observers under nonstochastic disturbances.

We study the problem of adaptive control of the stochastic linear quadratic regulator (LQR) with constraints that must be satisfied at every time step. Prior work on the multidimensional problem has shown $\tilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret and satisfaction of robust constraints, leaving open the question of whether $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret can be attained in the constrained LQR setting. We contribute to this problem by showing $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret and satisfaction of chance constraints. This type of constraints allow us to handle unbounded noise and also enable analytical techniques not directly applicable to robust constraints. Our proposed algorithm for this problem uses an SDP to select an optimistic policy, and then "scales back" this policy until it is verifiably-safe. Our theoretical analysis establishes regret and constraint guarantees via a key lemma that bounds the system covariance in terms of the chosen policy. This covariance-based analysis is in contrast with the cost-to-go based analysis that is typically used in adaptive LQR.