ISBO: Scalable Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Optimization with Log Gaussian Cox Process Models via the INLA-SPDE Approach
Organizations: KAUST · University of Oxford
Abstract
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a popular method for efficiently optimizing expensive black-box objectives. However, BO utilizing standard Gaussian Processes is ill-suited for doubly stochastic Cox Processes that are often used in spatio-temporal problem spaces. We introduce INLA-SPDE Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Optimization (ISBO): the first scalable BO framework for spatio-temporal data, that models the log-intensity with a Log-Gaussian Cox Process(LGCP) and performs inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (INLA-SPDE) approach. Using a Matern field on meshes yields a sparse Gaussian Markov Random Field, where INLA provides fast and accurate posterior inference throughout sequential optimization. ISBO stably locates high-intensity regions and the peak of the latent intensity with minimal evaluations. A time-varying Upper Confidence Bound acquisition with masking avoids revisits, while penalized-complexity priors regularize early rounds. Experiments on synthetic and real-world spatio-temporal datasets show accurate peak discovery, intensity recovery, and substantial speedups over an RKHS-based baseline, positioning ISBO as a practical choice for BO with point-process data.
Figures & tables
Appendix figures & tables12 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Algorithm 2 1D Temporal ISBO Implementation | |
|---|---|
| Input | Event times ; candidate grid ; initial centres ; query radius ; budget ; . |
| Initialise | Construct the 1D SPDE domain and integration meshes, define the Matérn LGCP surrogate, reveal events around , and fit the initial posterior. |
| for do | |
| 1 | Predict and on . |
| 2 | Compute and |
| 3 | Mask previously revealed regions and select |
| Algorithm 3 2D Spatial ISBO Implementation | |
|---|---|
| Input | Spatial events ; spatial domain ; candidate grid ; initial centres ; query radius ; budget ; . |
| Initialise | Project event locations to a metric coordinate system and retain events inside . Construct the triangular SPDE mesh, define the Matérn LGCP surrogate, and generate the common spatial candidate grid from the prediction pixels. |
| Sample the initial centres , reveal all events within radius of these centres, and fit the initial spatial LGCP posterior. Use the full-data fitted intensity as the reference surface for regret evaluation. | |
| for do | |
| 1 | Fit and predict: fit the spatial LGCP to the currently revealed events and obtain posterior mean and uncertainty over . |
| 2 | Update exploration: compute and construct the spatial UCB acquisition. |