eess.IVOct 9, 2026

Beyond Discrimination: Evaluating Probability Calibration in Radiomics-Image Fusion for Renal Cell Carcinoma Classification

Authors: Yuan Liang, Morgan May, Abraham Campbell, Sourav Bhattacharjee, Simon Caton, Pierpaolo Dondio

Organizations: Research Ireland Centre for Research Training in Machine Learning, ML-Labs, Dublin, Ireland · School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland · School of Computer Science, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland · School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland · School of Computing, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland

Abstract

Reliable probability estimates are important for the clinical interpretation of machine-learning classifiers, yet radiomics--image fusion models for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) are commonly evaluated primarily by discrimination. Using 396 patients from the KiTS23 dataset, we evaluated whether adding radiomics to four image-model families improved probabilistic performance in addition to discrimination. Seventeen individual models and four probability-average ensembles were assessed using discrimination, probability calibration, and proper scoring measures. Across 12 matched image-only versus fusion comparisons, AUC and AP improved in all 12, while Brier score and negative log likelihood (NLL) improved in 11 of 12 and expected calibration error (ECE) in eight of 12. The 3D MedVAE gated-fusion model achieved the strongest overall individual-model profile. Probability averaging across concatenation, cross-attention, and gated fusion produced favourable point estimates across all five primary metrics relative to image-only models in all four families, although paired-bootstrap support was stronger for Brier score and NLL than for ECE. These findings show that radiomics--image fusion can improve probabilistic prediction quality beyond discrimination, while calibration behaviour varies across image architectures and fusion strategies. We show that our proposed probability-average ensemble models improve discrimination and calibration simultaneously across all architectures in the study.

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