CryptoFlowBench: Benchmarking Multi-Hop Reasoning on Blockchains for Cryptocurrency Fund Tracing

Technological advancements in cryptocurrency markets have increased accessibility for investors, but concurrently exposed them to the risks of market manipulations. Existing fraud detection mechanisms typically rely on machine learning methods that treat each financial asset (i.e., token) and its related transactions independently. However, market manipulation strategies are rarely isolated events, but are rather characterized by coordination, repetition, and frequent transfers among related assets. This suggests that relational structure constitutes an integral component of the signal and can be effectively represented through graphical means. In this paper, we propose three graph construction methods that rely on aggregated hourly market data. The proposed graphs are processed by a unified spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that combines attention-based spatial aggregation with temporal Transformer encoding. We evaluate our methodology on a real-world dataset comprised of pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets, spanning a period of over three years. Our comparative results showcase that our graph-based models achieve significant improvements over standard machine learning baselines in detecting anomalous events. Our work highlights that learned market connectivity provides substantial gains for detecting coordinated market manipulation schemes.

Blockchain forensics inherently involves dynamic and iterative investigations, while many existing approaches primarily model it through static inference pipelines. We propose a paradigm shift towards Agentic Blockchain Forensics (ABF), modeling forensic investigation as a sequential decision-making process. To instantiate this paradigm, we introduce LOCARD, the first agentic framework for blockchain forensics. LOCARD operationalizes this perspective through a Tri-Core Cognitive Architecture that decouples strategic planning, operational execution, and evaluative validation. Unlike generic LLM-based agents, it incorporates a Structured Belief State mechanism to enforce forensic rigor and guide exploration under explicit state constraints. To demonstrate the efficacy of the ABF paradigm, we apply LOCARD to the inherently complex domain of cross-chain transaction tracing. We introduce Thor25, a benchmark dataset comprising over 151k real-world cross-chain forensic records, and evaluate LOCARD on the Group-Transfer Tracing task for dismantling Sybil clusters. Validated against representative laundering sub-flows from the Bybit hack, LOCARD achieves high-fidelity tracing results, providing empirical evidence that modeling blockchain forensics as an autonomous agentic task is both viable and effective. These results establish a concrete foundation for future agentic approaches to large-scale blockchain forensic analysis. Code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/xhyumiracle/locard and https://github.com/xhyumiracle/thorchain-crosschain-data.

Cryptocurrencies are widely used, yet current methods for analyzing transactions often rely on opaque, black-box models. While these models may achieve high performance, their outputs are usually difficult to interpret and adapt, making it challenging to capture nuanced behavioral patterns. Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to address these gaps, but their capabilities in this area remain largely unexplored, particularly in cybercrime detection. In this paper, we test this hypothesis by applying LLMs to real-world cryptocurrency transaction graphs, with a focus on Bitcoin, one of the most studied and widely adopted blockchain networks. We introduce a three-tiered framework to assess LLM capabilities: foundational metrics, characteristic overview, and contextual interpretation. This includes a new, human-readable graph representation format, LLM4TG, and a connectivity-enhanced transaction graph sampling algorithm, CETraS. Together, they significantly reduce token requirements, transforming the analysis of multiple moderately large-scale transaction graphs with LLMs from nearly impossible to feasible under strict token limits. Experimental results demonstrate that LLMs have outstanding performance on foundational metrics and characteristic overview, where the accuracy of recognizing most basic information at the node level exceeds 98.50% and the proportion of obtaining meaningful characteristics reaches 95.00%. Regarding contextual interpretation, LLMs also demonstrate strong performance in classification tasks, even with very limited labeled data, where top-3 accuracy reaches 72.43% with explanations. While the explanations are not always fully accurate, they highlight the strong potential of LLMs in this domain. At the same time, several limitations persist, which we discuss along with directions for future research.