VeriPIE: Checkable Query Plans and Evidence-Guided Selection for Text-to-SQL

Evaluating uncertainty in AI-generated SQL queries requires estimating whether a query is correct, where correct means it executes to the same result as a human-written reference. We study which signals predict correctness on hard multi-table text-to-SQL, using AUROC to measure how well each ranks correct queries above incorrect ones. On BIRD and Spider, black-box signals such as string, structural, and execution self-consistency, a schema-relevance score, and query executability all fall between about 0.61 and 0.68 AUROC, with string self-consistency strongest at 0.675; white-box log-probability is similar (0.67). The signals that move past this ceiling are verification-based: an LLM judge scores from 0.72 (GPT-4o-mini) to 0.78 (Claude). Judges from different providers make different errors, so a two-provider ensemble reaches 0.82 AUROC with a well-calibrated probability (expected calibration error 0.03) and supports useful abstention frontiers (for example, answering 27% of questions at 24% selective risk) where self-consistency offers no valid low-risk subset. The pattern holds across two benchmarks, two generators, and two judge providers. We also ask whether a verifier can be trained. Fine-tuned verifiers, both encoder and generative, reach about 0.77 to 0.79 AUROC in-distribution but fall to about 0.66 on unseen schemas; scaling to 7B, adding schema diversity, distilling a strong judge's rationales, and cross-benchmark training all fail to close that gap. Cross-schema transfer appears to track model scale and reasoning rather than fine-tuning. In practice, correctness uncertainty for text-to-SQL lives in reasoning-based signals: a fine-tuned verifier is a good in-domain tool, but a verifier that generalizes across schemas currently means a large frozen reasoning model.

Major cloud data platforms now expose large language model capabilities as native SQL functions, enabling analysts to perform classification, filtering, sentiment analysis, extraction, similarity search, and aggregation within ordinary SQL queries. Yet existing text-to-SQL benchmarks evaluate only conventional SQL and provide no signal on whether models can generate such AI-native SQL. We introduce Spider 2.0-AIFunc, a benchmark of 465 verified instances across 125 real-world databases covering six types of AI functions on the Snowflake platform. Starting from an existing enterprise text-to-SQL benchmark, we construct Spider 2.0-AIFunc through an agent-based pipeline that rewrites source tasks into AI-native form, simultaneously transforming target queries and refining natural language instructions to make the intended AI-native solution explicit and reduce ambiguity. All instances pass a multi-round repeated execution protocol across temporally separated windows to confirm result stability before release. Evaluating ten state-of-the-art language models, we find that the strongest proprietary models reach 67-70% execution accuracy while the best open-source model achieves 58.1%, a gap driven primarily by errors in predicate specification, schema grounding, and AI function parameterization. Agent frameworks designed for traditional text-to-SQL challenges, such as schema retrieval and relevant table selection, do not transfer effectively to AI-native SQL: a minimal agent setup consistently matches or outperforms more elaborate alternatives, suggesting that the strategies these frameworks employ are less critical in this setting. Data are available at https://github.com/Leolty/Spider2-AIFunc .

We present SpotIt+, an open-source tool for evaluating Text-to-SQL systems via bounded equivalence verification. Given a generated SQL query and the ground truth, SpotIt+ actively searches for database instances that differentiate the two queries. To ensure that the generated counterexamples reflect practically relevant discrepancies, we introduce a best-effort constraint-mining pipeline that combines rule-based specification mining with LLM-based validation over example databases. Experimental results on the BIRD dataset show that the mined constraints enable SpotIt+ to generate more realistic differentiating databases, while preserving its ability to efficiently uncover numerous discrepancies between generated and gold SQL queries that are missed by standard test-based evaluation.