Back to the Future: Reverse-Consequence Modeling for Long-Horizon Particle Dynamics

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

Action-conditioned robot world models generate future video frames of the manipulated scene given a robot action sequence, offering a promising alternative for simulating tasks that are difficult to model with traditional physics engines. However, these models are optimized for short-term prediction and break down when deployed autoregressively: each predicted clip feeds back as context for the next, causing errors to compound and visual quality to rapidly degrade. We address this through the following contributions. First, we introduce a reinforcement learning (RL) post-training scheme that trains the world model on its own autoregressive rollouts rather than on ground-truth histories. We achieve this by adapting a recent contrastive RL objective for diffusion models to our setting and show that its convergence guarantees carry over exactly. Second, we design a training protocol that generates and compares multiple candidate variable-length futures from the same rollout state, reinforcing higher-fidelity predictions over lower-fidelity ones. Third, we develop efficient, multi-view visual fidelity rewards that combine complementary perceptual metrics across camera views and are aggregated at the clip level for dense, low-variance training signal. Fourth, we show that our approach establishes a new state-of-the-art for rollout fidelity on the DROID dataset, outperforming the strongest baseline on all metrics (e.g., LPIPS reduced by 14% on external cameras, SSIM improved by 9.1% on the wrist camera), winning 98% of paired comparisons, and achieving an 80% preference rate in a blind human study.

We propose Diffusion ReRoll, a diffusion-based framework for robotic sequential prediction that enables revisable denoising over horizons. Existing diffusion-based sequence predictors typically perform a single monotonic denoising process. In contrast, Diffusion ReRoll selectively re-noises regions that reach a predefined noise threshold while the remaining regions continue denoising, so the re-noised regions can be refined again using context from the rest of the horizon. This structured re-noising enables iterative cross-horizon revision, allowing earlier and later segments to revise one another, while maintaining local consistency. We evaluate Diffusion ReRoll against full-sequence diffusion and causal denoising based on Diffusion Forcing across long-horizon planning, policy learning, unified video-action modeling, and real-world navigation. On OGBench PointMaze and AntMaze, Diffusion ReRoll achieves relative gains in average success rate of 21% over Diffusion Forcing in matched guidance-based planning and 23% over Diffuser in goal-inpainting. In diffusion-policy-style action prediction, Diffusion ReRoll improves average success by 56.5% relative to Diffusion Policy across different prediction horizons and history lengths on LIBERO-10 under the official reset protocol. In unified video-action prediction, Diffusion ReRoll improves policy and inverse dynamics performance, especially under out-of-distribution evaluation, and achieves the best action-video consistency. Real-world navigation further demonstrates improved success under visual distribution shifts with onboard inference. These results show that structured re-noising enables cross-horizon revision and improves performance across robotic sequential prediction tasks.