Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction

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21 papers4 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

FlowMoP: Stochastic Multi-Person Motion Prediction
Nov 6, 2026Aadya Agrawal, Ho Kei Cheng, Alexander SchwingHuman Motion Prediction Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Neural Stochastic Forecasting for Lateral Molecular Diffusion Simulations
Nov 4, 2026Jacob Ede Levine, Mario Hidalgo-Soria, Chen Yun Wen +2Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Neural Surrogate Modeling
Department of Computer Science, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, 91768, California, USA. · Department of Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Western University of Health Sciences, Pomona, 91766, California, USA.
Spectral and Conformal: Neural Network Methods for Calibrated Trajectory Prediction and Control-Point Intervals
Oct 30, 2026Jasmine Ratchford, Raffaele RomagnoliTrajectory Inference Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction
CMU Software Engineering Institute (former affiliation) · Duquesne University
Quantum-JEPA: Quantum Born Priors for Latent-Action JEPA World Models
Oct 20, 2026Zhiyuan Liu, Sicheng Liu, Haiyu WuQuantum Circuit Born Machines Action-Conditioned World Models
Qinous Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing, China · Tsinghua University, Beijing, China · University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion
Oct 8, 2026Zhiwei Xue, Jia Yue Kam, Jinhang Qiu +5Uncertainty Calibration Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction
National University of Singapore. · LAAS-CNRS. · Smart Systems Institute, NUS.
Uncertainty-Aware Optimization for Physics-Aware Highway Trajectory Prediction
Oct 8, 2026Aanchal Rajesh Chugh, Sebastian DornProbabilistic Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction
Technische Hochschule Augsburg TTZ Landsberg am Lech
Kernel-Based Metrics Learning for Uncertain Opponent Vehicle Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Racing
Sep 15, 2026Hojin Lee, Youngim Nam, Sanghun Lee +1Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Deep Kernel Learning
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, 44919, Republic of Korea
FlowATC: Aircraft Trajectory Prediction via Flow Matching
Sep 15, 2026Mathurin Petit, Emir Torun, Louis Brusset +2Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Flow Matching
École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, 91128, France · Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, 10623, Germany · Mines Paris–PSL University, Paris, 75006, France +2
Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Forecasting from Imperfect Tracking
Aug 31, 2026Stephane Da Silva Martins, Victor Petrovic, Emanuel Aldea +1Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting
SATIE – CNRS UMR 8029, Université Paris-Saclay, France · ENS Paris-Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay, France
Non-Parametric Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction via State-Conditioned Transition Sampling
Aug 14, 2026Michael Fore, Akshay Jain, Justin Downes +2Trajectory Generation Vessel Trajectory Prediction
Amazon Web Services
Towards Metric-Agnostic Trajectory Forecasting
Jul 1, 2026Markus Knoche, Daan de Geus, Bastian LeibeAutonomous Driving Benchmarks Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction
RWTH Aachen University, Germany · Eindhoven University of Technology, Netherlands
AeroCast: Probabilistic 3D Trajectory Prediction for Non-Cooperative Aerial Obstacles via Transformer-MDN Architecture
Jun 23, 2026Syed Izzat Ullah, Jose BacaProbabilistic Trajectory Prediction Aerial Robotics
Department of Engineering, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412 USA
Driving, Fast or Slow? Neuro-Symbolic Guidance for Motion Prediction in Multi-Modal Ground Mobility
Jun 13, 2026Simon Kohaut, Felix Divo, Julius Hahnewald +4Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Autonomous Driving
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Lab, TU Darmstadt · Honda Research Institute · Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI) +3
First-Order Trajectory Matching: Fast Ensemble Predictions of Chaotic, Turbulent, Stochastic Systems
Jun 9, 2026Shreya Jha, Timo Schorlepp, Nicholas Geissler +2Dynamical Systems Surrogate Modeling
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
Agent-Centric Social Trajectory Prediction: A Free Energy Principle Perspective
May 25, 2026Yanping Wu, Ji Zhang, Hao Chen +2Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting
University of Glasgow Glasgow, UK · Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu, China
Envisioning the Future, One Step at a Time
Apr 10, 2026Stefan Andreas Baumann, Jannik Wiese, Tommaso Martorella +2Trajectory Prediction Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction
Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · Netflix
RankFormer: A Propose-then-Select Transformer for Multi-Agent Multimodal Trajectory Prediction
Apr 8, 2026Diyi Liu, Zihan Niu, Tu Xu +2Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Multimodal Trajectory Prediction
College of Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China · Zhejiang Police College, Zhejiang, China
Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Prediction: A Unified Framework Harnessing Positional and Semantic Uncertainties
Mar 31, 2026Jintao Sun, Hu Zhang, Gangyi Ding +1Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction
School of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, China 100081. · CSIRO DATA61, Australia. · Faculty of Science and Technology and Institute of Collaborative Innovation, University of Macau, China 999078.
Evaluating randomized smoothing as a defense against adversarial attacks in trajectory prediction
Mar 11, 2026Julian F. Schumann, Eduardo Figueiredo, Frederik Baymler Mathiesen +3Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Adversarial Robustness
Department of Cognitive Robotics, TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands · Delft Center for Systems and Control, TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands
Fast Confidence-Aware Human Prediction via Hardware-accelerated Bayesian Inference for Safe Robot Navigation
Mar 1, 2026Michael Lu, Minh Bui, Xubo Lyu +1Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Human Motion Prediction
School of Computing Science, Simon Fraser University, Canada
Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion Model for Multimodal Highway Trajectory Prediction via DDIM Sampling
Feb 24, 2026Marion Neumeier, Niklas Roßberg, Michael Botsch +1Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Multimodal Trajectory Prediction
Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany · Technische Universität München, 80333 München, Germany

Nov 6, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

FlowMoP: Stochastic Multi-Person Motion Prediction

Aadya Agrawal, Ho Kei Cheng, Alexander Schwing

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Human Motion Prediction Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction Conditional Flow Matching

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Predicting the future motion of multiple people is inherently stochastic: the same observed history admits many plausible continuations depending on intent, coordination, and social context. Yet the dominant paradigm in multi-person 3D motion prediction remains deterministic, with existing methods producing a fixed number of outputs per agent. In contrast, we present a conditional flow matching framework that jointly generates diverse future motions for multiple agents, modeling both global trajectories and root-relative poses. A B-spline reparameterization compresses the generative state space while enforcing temporal smoothness, and a dual-stream transformer conditions each agent's predictions on observed neighbor motion for interaction-aware forecasting. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on CMU-Mocap (UMPM) and 3DPW, outperforming deterministic baselines on joint position error, pose error, and final displacement error despite producing a full predictive distribution. We additionally establish the first motion prediction baseline on WorldPose, a large-scale professional soccer dataset, where social conditioning demonstrably concentrates predictive uncertainty along interaction-constrained directions.