Local Epochs as Optimal Stopping: Theory and Evidence in Federated Learning
Organizations: School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow
Abstract
How long should each client train before communicating? Federated learning usually answers with a fixed, hand-tuned number of local epochs, yet an extra epoch helps only while the loss it removes outweighs the client drift it adds. We cast local training as finite-horizon optimal stopping: a client trains while the next epoch's expected loss reduction exceeds its priced squared drift. We prove that this one-stage look-ahead threshold is optimal whenever stopping decisions are nested, derive closed forms for geometric and power-law returns, and show that an estimated rule loses utility only through wrong-signed decisions. Epoch-level evidence supports the model's structure (geometric diminishing returns and additive drift) and reveals a simple regularity: the stage of training, not the client, sets the budget. The resulting rule, FedStop, is never more than one point below tuned FedAvg in mean accuracy. Where its budgets vary, it raises worst-decile accuracy by 4-8 points over tuned FedAvg and an adaptive-interval baseline, and every one of these gains remains significant after a Holm correction. Against the client-side stopping rules ALT and FLASH, it has the highest CIFAR-10 worst decile on every seed and is level elsewhere. It stays stable where per-client early stopping collapses, and each stopping decision takes constant time.
Figures & tables
| Setting | Partition | Model | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFAR-10 | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 2 |
| CIFAR-10 | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 1 |
| CIFAR-10 † | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 1 |
| CIFAR-10 † | two-class shards | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 2 |
| CIFAR-100 | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 500 | 2 |
| FEMNIST | natural writers | LEAF CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 2 |
| Geometric | Power-law | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting | Int. | Var | Int. | Var | ||
| CIFAR-10, | 0.98 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.31 | 1.3 | 0.20 |
| CIFAR-10, | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.0 | 0.03 |
| CIFAR-100 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 |
| FEMNIST | 0.94 | 5.4 | 8.17 | 0.85 | 2.9 | 3.05 |
| Shakespeare | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.4 | 1.28 |
| Model element | Used in | Evidence (CIFAR-10, FEMNIST) |
|---|---|---|
| Geometric returns (P1) | Cor. 1 | preferred for 63–79% of clients |
| Additive drift, stationary or slowly declining (P2) | ( 7 ), Cor. 1 , 3 | ratio – , stationary on CIFAR-10, in of FEMNIST epochs |
| Budgets fall in training, and annealing matters (P3) | ( 12 ) | and epochs, and fixing budgets per client costs tail points |
| Round, not client, sets the budget (P3) | ( 12 ) | random swaps match FedStop (Table 6 ) |
| Over-pricing is safe | Cor. 1 | no failure at the two largest |
| One-stage rule loses little to correlation | Prop. 2 | exact AR(1) rule, same scale: points, |
| CIFAR-10 | CIFAR-10 | CIFAR-100 | |||
| Method | FEMNIST | Shakespeare | |||
| FedAvg, | 60.7 1.3 | 67.8 1.0 | 29.0 1.1 | 81.7 1.9 | 50.0 0.4 |
| FedAvg, | 60.5 0.7 | 51.2 23.1 | 14.2 12.0 | 81.3 1.3 | 47.5 0.4 |
| FedAvg, tuned | 60.2 4.0 | 67.8 1.0 | 30.4 1.8 | 81.8 1.4 | 50.0 0.4 |
| Wang et al. (2019) | 62.0 1.1 | 67.8 1.2 | 30.1 1.8 | 82.0 1.5 | 50.0 0.4 |
| FedNova ( Wang et al., 2020 ) | 63.1 2.2 | 68.3 0.6 | 30.7 0.9 | 82.1 1.3 | 50.1 0.5 |
| CIFAR-10 | FEMNIST | Shakespeare | |||
| Method | Cross-fit. | Shared | Cross-fit. | Shared | |
| FedAvg, | 28.7 3.7 | 67.6 6.3 | 75.1 3.1 | 49.4 1.7 | 50.7 0.5 |
| FedAvg, | 35.6 4.1 | 69.6 5.8 | 76.3 2.6 | 47.2 1.6 | 47.9 0.8 |
| FedAvg, tuned | 30.7 2.0 | 68.3 5.3 | 75.5 3.9 | 49.4 1.7 | 50.7 0.5 |
| Wang et al. (2019) | 32.7 3.0 | 68.8 5.8 | 75.2 3.9 | 50.0 1.4 | 50.5 0.6 |
| FedNova | 34.8 3.4 | 71.6 6.3 | 77.0 3.7 | 50.4 1.9 | 50.7 0.5 |
| Top-1 accuracy | Worst-decile accuracy | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profile | Setting | Control | FedStop | Control | FedStop | Control | ||
| Geometric | CIFAR-10, | Random swap | 63.5 | 63.6 | [ , ] | 39.0 | 39.6 | [ , ] |
| Geometric | CIFAR-10, | Equal split | 63.5 | 63.5 | [ , ] | 39.0 | 39.3 | [ , ] |
| Geometric | FEMNIST | Random swap | 81.1 | 81.5 | [ , ] | 73.1 | 76.5 | [ , ] |
| Geometric | FEMNIST | Equal split | 81.1 | 81.7 | [ , ] | 73.1 | 74.4 | [ , ] |
| Power-law | CIFAR-10, | Random swap | 62.8 | 63.9 | [ , ] | 33.8 | 36.3 | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-10, | FEMNIST | Shakespeare | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Method | Top-1 | Worst decile | Top-1 | Cross-fit. | Shared | Top-1 | Cross-fit. | Shared |
| ALT ( Shenaj et al., 2025 ) | 61.4 2.1 | 30.0 7.2 | 81.6 1.2 | 73.2 3.2 | 78.8 3.0 | 50.0 0.5 | 49.7 1.0 | 50.4 0.5 |
| FLASH ( Panchal et al., 2023 ) | 63.2 1.4 | 35.3 3.2 | 81.8 1.7 | 71.5 4.2 | 78.1 3.4 | 50.0 0.5 | 49.9 1.1 | 50.5 0.5 |
| FedStop (geometric) | 63.5 0.7 | 39.0 2.3 | 81.1 1.9 | 73.1 5.2 | 77.0 3.6 | 50.1 0.4 | 49.5 1.4 | 50.8 0.7 |
Appendix figures & tables13 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Setting | Accuracy | Tail | Collapsed | Per-seed accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFAR-10, | 10.0 0.0 | 10.0 0.0 | 5/5 | 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0 |
| FEMNIST | 17.6 35.7 | 15.0 30.0 | 4/5 | 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 81.4 |
| Shakespeare | 54.9 0.5 | 52.2 1.3 | 0/5 | 55.1, 54.6, 55.4, 54.3, 55.3 |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FedNova, | 61.4 2.3 | 30.4 6.3 | 10.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 63.1 2.2 | 34.8 3.4 | 20.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 62.7 0.6 | 38.9 2.8 | 50.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 60.9 0.9 | 39.0 3.0 | 100.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 59.2 1.1 | 38.9 3.3 | 200.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Wang et al. (A) | 62.0 1.1 | 32.7 3.0 | 20.5 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR(1) rule | 62.5 2.1 | 33.5 2.3 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Sequential probability ratio test | 10.0 0.0 | 6.0 5.5 | 130.2 | 5 | – | – |
| Upper-confidence-bound rule | 10.4 0.8 | 8.0 4.5 | 48.9 | 4 | – | – |
| Linear multi-step look-ahead | 61.2 2.6 | 29.9 6.8 | 10.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Minimum of two epochs | 63.3 1.2 | 35.6 2.4 | 20.1 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Shrunk loss scale | 62.5 1.8 | 33.4 3.6 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Random swap within round | 63.9 1.5 | 36.3 2.7 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Random swap within size strata | 62.8 1.4 | 32.7 5.6 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Permuted across rounds | 63.3 0.9 | 32.2 8.5 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| De-annealed | 61.8 2.4 | 29.9 4.7 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Hindsight oracle (ref.) | 60.6 2.3 | 29.8 6.0 | 200.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Round-wise validation oracle (ref.) | 64.0 0.5 | 37.8 6.5 | 200.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEMNIST: Minimum of two epochs | 81.6 1.6 | 72.4 5.1 | 35.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FEMNIST: Drift price transferred from CIFAR-10, | 81.8 1.7 | 71.2 4.9 | 10.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Shakespeare: Minimum of two epochs | 48.4 0.4 | 47.5 1.3 | 10.6 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Shakespeare: Drift price transferred from CIFAR-10, | 50.1 0.5 | 50.4 1.9 | 5.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Setting, profile | Shape at prior | ||||
| CIFAR-10 ( ), geometric | 0.302 | 0.160 | 0.118 | 0.029 | 5.3% |
| CIFAR-10 ( ), power-law | 2.426 | 0.561 | 0.118 | 1.39 | 69.1% |
| CIFAR-10 ( ), geometric | 0.302 | 0.160 | 0.118 | – | |
| CIFAR-10 ( ), power-law | 2.426 | 0.561 | 0.118 | 1.39 | – |
| CIFAR-100 ( ), geometric | 0.221 | 0.116 | 1.52 | 798 | – |
| CIFAR-100 ( ), power-law | 2.742 | 0.616 | 1.52 | 1.34 | – |
| ALT | FLASH | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting | Ext. | At edge | Ext. | At edge | ||
| CIFAR-10 | 0.9889 | 2 | yes | 0.160 | 1 | no |
| FEMNIST | 0.8928 | 0 | no | 0.645 | 1 | no |
| Shakespeare | 0.9947 | 2 | yes | 0.331 | 2 | yes |
| Setting | Rule | top-1 | worst decile | Holm | fixed cohort | Epochs | Work ( ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFAR-10 | ALT | [ , ] | [ , ] | 0.151 | – | 1.19 | 14.1 |
| CIFAR-10 | FLASH | [ , ] | [ , ] | 0.055 | – | 2.06 | 21.3 |
| FEMNIST | ALT | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 19.07 | 214.0 |
| FEMNIST | FLASH | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 1.06 | 10.9 |
| Shakespeare | ALT | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 1.00 | 5.36 |
| Shakespeare | FLASH | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 1.01 | 5.32 |
| Work to reach target | Work over full horizon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting, profile | Full | Subset | (points) | Full | Subset | (points) | top-1 | worst decile |
| CIFAR-10, geometric | 161.3 | 148.6 | [ , ] | 157.1 | 140.8 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-10, power-law | 98.5 | 89.2 | [ , ] | 88.3 | 77.3 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-100, geometric | 111.6 | 91.0 | [ , ] | 67.7 | 55.2 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FEMNIST, geometric | 222.4 | 203.3 | [ , ] | 307.2 | 298.2 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-10, geometric, same- repeat | 161.3 | 138.1 | [ , ] | 157.1 | 140.9 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Method | Accuracy | Worst decile | Epochs | Compute |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FedAvg, | 57.0 1.4 | 34.6 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| FLASH client rule | 61.5 2.3 | 41.4 9.4 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| ALT | 59.4 1.1 | 41.1 3.7 | 18.2 | 29.1 |
| FedStop (geometric) | 60.4 1.2 | 39.7 4.4 | 3.8 | 6.4 |
| Equal split (control) | 61.4 1.2 | 40.8 6.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Quantity | CIFAR-10 | FEMNIST |
| First-decision drift price / later realised drift rate (median) | 16.2 | 6.9 |
| Client-rounds stopped after one epoch | 2.1% | 5.1% |
| Fitted : median [IQR] | 0.05 [0.05, 0.12] | 0.18 [0.08, 0.36] |
| at a search bound | 65.1% | 15.1% |
| Pooled lag-one correlation of progress surprises | ||
| Client-rounds ( epochs) meeting the margin of Corollary 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Federated Learning
Federated learning trains shared models across data holders without requiring them to pool their raw data.
See all 961 papersRethinking the Personalized Relaxed Initialization in the Federated Learning: Consistency and Generalization
client-drift'' problem, which is caused by the inconsistent optimum across local clients. However, till now it still lacks solid theoretical analysis to explain the impact of this local inconsistency. To alleviate the negative impact of client drift'' and explore its substance in FL, in this paper, we first propose an efficient FL algorithm FedInit, which allows employing the personalized relaxed initialization state at the beginning of each local training stage. Specifically, FedInit initializes the local state by moving away from the current global state towards the reverse direction of the latest local state. Moreover, to further understand how inconsistency disrupts performance in FL, we introduce the excess risk analysis and study the divergence term to investigate the test error in FL. Our studies show that optimization error is not sensitive to this local inconsistency, while it mainly affects the generalization error bound. Extensive experiments are conducted to validate its efficiency. The proposed FedInit method could achieve comparable results compared to several advanced benchmarks without any additional training or communication costs. Meanwhile, the stage-wise personalized relaxed initialization could also be incorporated into several current advanced algorithms to achieve higher generalization performance in the FL paradigm.