Local Epochs as Optimal Stopping: Theory and Evidence in Federated Learning
Organizations: School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow
Abstract
How long should each client train before communicating? Federated learning usually answers with a fixed, hand-tuned number of local epochs, yet an extra epoch helps only while the loss it removes outweighs the client drift it adds. We cast local training as finite-horizon optimal stopping: a client trains while the next epoch's expected loss reduction exceeds its priced squared drift. We prove that this one-stage look-ahead threshold is optimal whenever stopping decisions are nested, derive closed forms for geometric and power-law returns, and show that an estimated rule loses utility only through wrong-signed decisions. Epoch-level evidence supports the model's structure (geometric diminishing returns and additive drift) and reveals a simple regularity: the stage of training, not the client, sets the budget. The resulting rule, FedStop, is never more than one point below tuned FedAvg in mean accuracy. Where its budgets vary, it raises worst-decile accuracy by 4-8 points over tuned FedAvg and an adaptive-interval baseline, and every one of these gains remains significant after a Holm correction. Against the client-side stopping rules ALT and FLASH, it has the highest CIFAR-10 worst decile on every seed and is level elsewhere. It stays stable where per-client early stopping collapses, and each stopping decision takes constant time.
Figures & tables
| Setting | Partition | Model | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFAR-10 | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 2 |
| CIFAR-10 | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 1 |
| CIFAR-10 † | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 1 |
| CIFAR-10 † | two-class shards | CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 2 |
| CIFAR-100 | Dirichlet | CNN | 0.03 | 500 | 2 |
| FEMNIST | natural writers | LEAF CNN | 0.03 | 1000 | 2 |
| Geometric | Power-law | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting | Int. | Var | Int. | Var | ||
| CIFAR-10, | 0.98 | 2.5 | 0.57 | 0.31 | 1.3 | 0.20 |
| CIFAR-10, | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.0 | 0.03 |
| CIFAR-100 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 |
| FEMNIST | 0.94 | 5.4 | 8.17 | 0.85 | 2.9 | 3.05 |
| Shakespeare | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.4 | 1.28 |
| Model element | Used in | Evidence (CIFAR-10, FEMNIST) |
|---|---|---|
| Geometric returns (P1) | Cor. 1 | preferred for 63–79% of clients |
| Additive drift, stationary or slowly declining (P2) | ( 7 ), Cor. 1 , 3 | ratio – , stationary on CIFAR-10, in of FEMNIST epochs |
| Budgets fall in training, and annealing matters (P3) | ( 12 ) | and epochs, and fixing budgets per client costs tail points |
| Round, not client, sets the budget (P3) | ( 12 ) | random swaps match FedStop (Table 6 ) |
| Over-pricing is safe | Cor. 1 | no failure at the two largest |
| One-stage rule loses little to correlation | Prop. 2 | exact AR(1) rule, same scale: points, |
| CIFAR-10 | CIFAR-10 | CIFAR-100 | |||
| Method | FEMNIST | Shakespeare | |||
| FedAvg, | 60.7 1.3 | 67.8 1.0 | 29.0 1.1 | 81.7 1.9 | 50.0 0.4 |
| FedAvg, | 60.5 0.7 | 51.2 23.1 | 14.2 12.0 | 81.3 1.3 | 47.5 0.4 |
| FedAvg, tuned | 60.2 4.0 | 67.8 1.0 | 30.4 1.8 | 81.8 1.4 | 50.0 0.4 |
| Wang et al. (2019) | 62.0 1.1 | 67.8 1.2 | 30.1 1.8 | 82.0 1.5 | 50.0 0.4 |
| FedNova ( Wang et al., 2020 ) | 63.1 2.2 | 68.3 0.6 | 30.7 0.9 | 82.1 1.3 | 50.1 0.5 |
| CIFAR-10 | FEMNIST | Shakespeare | |||
| Method | Cross-fit. | Shared | Cross-fit. | Shared | |
| FedAvg, | 28.7 3.7 | 67.6 6.3 | 75.1 3.1 | 49.4 1.7 | 50.7 0.5 |
| FedAvg, | 35.6 4.1 | 69.6 5.8 | 76.3 2.6 | 47.2 1.6 | 47.9 0.8 |
| FedAvg, tuned | 30.7 2.0 | 68.3 5.3 | 75.5 3.9 | 49.4 1.7 | 50.7 0.5 |
| Wang et al. (2019) | 32.7 3.0 | 68.8 5.8 | 75.2 3.9 | 50.0 1.4 | 50.5 0.6 |
| FedNova | 34.8 3.4 | 71.6 6.3 | 77.0 3.7 | 50.4 1.9 | 50.7 0.5 |
| Top-1 accuracy | Worst-decile accuracy | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profile | Setting | Control | FedStop | Control | FedStop | Control | ||
| Geometric | CIFAR-10, | Random swap | 63.5 | 63.6 | [ , ] | 39.0 | 39.6 | [ , ] |
| Geometric | CIFAR-10, | Equal split | 63.5 | 63.5 | [ , ] | 39.0 | 39.3 | [ , ] |
| Geometric | FEMNIST | Random swap | 81.1 | 81.5 | [ , ] | 73.1 | 76.5 | [ , ] |
| Geometric | FEMNIST | Equal split | 81.1 | 81.7 | [ , ] | 73.1 | 74.4 | [ , ] |
| Power-law | CIFAR-10, | Random swap | 62.8 | 63.9 | [ , ] | 33.8 | 36.3 | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-10, | FEMNIST | Shakespeare | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Method | Top-1 | Worst decile | Top-1 | Cross-fit. | Shared | Top-1 | Cross-fit. | Shared |
| ALT ( Shenaj et al., 2025 ) | 61.4 2.1 | 30.0 7.2 | 81.6 1.2 | 73.2 3.2 | 78.8 3.0 | 50.0 0.5 | 49.7 1.0 | 50.4 0.5 |
| FLASH ( Panchal et al., 2023 ) | 63.2 1.4 | 35.3 3.2 | 81.8 1.7 | 71.5 4.2 | 78.1 3.4 | 50.0 0.5 | 49.9 1.1 | 50.5 0.5 |
| FedStop (geometric) | 63.5 0.7 | 39.0 2.3 | 81.1 1.9 | 73.1 5.2 | 77.0 3.6 | 50.1 0.4 | 49.5 1.4 | 50.8 0.7 |
Appendix figures & tables13 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Setting | Accuracy | Tail | Collapsed | Per-seed accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFAR-10, | 10.0 0.0 | 10.0 0.0 | 5/5 | 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0 |
| FEMNIST | 17.6 35.7 | 15.0 30.0 | 4/5 | 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 81.4 |
| Shakespeare | 54.9 0.5 | 52.2 1.3 | 0/5 | 55.1, 54.6, 55.4, 54.3, 55.3 |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FedNova, | 61.4 2.3 | 30.4 6.3 | 10.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 63.1 2.2 | 34.8 3.4 | 20.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 62.7 0.6 | 38.9 2.8 | 50.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 60.9 0.9 | 39.0 3.0 | 100.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FedNova, | 59.2 1.1 | 38.9 3.3 | 200.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Wang et al. (A) | 62.0 1.1 | 32.7 3.0 | 20.5 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR(1) rule | 62.5 2.1 | 33.5 2.3 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Sequential probability ratio test | 10.0 0.0 | 6.0 5.5 | 130.2 | 5 | – | – |
| Upper-confidence-bound rule | 10.4 0.8 | 8.0 4.5 | 48.9 | 4 | – | – |
| Linear multi-step look-ahead | 61.2 2.6 | 29.9 6.8 | 10.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Minimum of two epochs | 63.3 1.2 | 35.6 2.4 | 20.1 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Shrunk loss scale | 62.5 1.8 | 33.4 3.6 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Random swap within round | 63.9 1.5 | 36.3 2.7 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Random swap within size strata | 62.8 1.4 | 32.7 5.6 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Permuted across rounds | 63.3 0.9 | 32.2 8.5 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| De-annealed | 61.8 2.4 | 29.9 4.7 | 13.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Hindsight oracle (ref.) | 60.6 2.3 | 29.8 6.0 | 200.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Round-wise validation oracle (ref.) | 64.0 0.5 | 37.8 6.5 | 200.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Configuration | Accuracy | Tail | Epochs ( ) | Coll. | accuracy | tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEMNIST: Minimum of two epochs | 81.6 1.6 | 72.4 5.1 | 35.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FEMNIST: Drift price transferred from CIFAR-10, | 81.8 1.7 | 71.2 4.9 | 10.3 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Shakespeare: Minimum of two epochs | 48.4 0.4 | 47.5 1.3 | 10.6 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Shakespeare: Drift price transferred from CIFAR-10, | 50.1 0.5 | 50.4 1.9 | 5.0 | 0 | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Setting, profile | Shape at prior | ||||
| CIFAR-10 ( ), geometric | 0.302 | 0.160 | 0.118 | 0.029 | 5.3% |
| CIFAR-10 ( ), power-law | 2.426 | 0.561 | 0.118 | 1.39 | 69.1% |
| CIFAR-10 ( ), geometric | 0.302 | 0.160 | 0.118 | – | |
| CIFAR-10 ( ), power-law | 2.426 | 0.561 | 0.118 | 1.39 | – |
| CIFAR-100 ( ), geometric | 0.221 | 0.116 | 1.52 | 798 | – |
| CIFAR-100 ( ), power-law | 2.742 | 0.616 | 1.52 | 1.34 | – |
| ALT | FLASH | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting | Ext. | At edge | Ext. | At edge | ||
| CIFAR-10 | 0.9889 | 2 | yes | 0.160 | 1 | no |
| FEMNIST | 0.8928 | 0 | no | 0.645 | 1 | no |
| Shakespeare | 0.9947 | 2 | yes | 0.331 | 2 | yes |
| Setting | Rule | top-1 | worst decile | Holm | fixed cohort | Epochs | Work ( ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFAR-10 | ALT | [ , ] | [ , ] | 0.151 | – | 1.19 | 14.1 |
| CIFAR-10 | FLASH | [ , ] | [ , ] | 0.055 | – | 2.06 | 21.3 |
| FEMNIST | ALT | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 19.07 | 214.0 |
| FEMNIST | FLASH | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 1.06 | 10.9 |
| Shakespeare | ALT | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 1.00 | 5.36 |
| Shakespeare | FLASH | [ , ] | [ , ] | 1.000 | [ , ] | 1.01 | 5.32 |
| Work to reach target | Work over full horizon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting, profile | Full | Subset | (points) | Full | Subset | (points) | top-1 | worst decile |
| CIFAR-10, geometric | 161.3 | 148.6 | [ , ] | 157.1 | 140.8 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-10, power-law | 98.5 | 89.2 | [ , ] | 88.3 | 77.3 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-100, geometric | 111.6 | 91.0 | [ , ] | 67.7 | 55.2 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| FEMNIST, geometric | 222.4 | 203.3 | [ , ] | 307.2 | 298.2 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| CIFAR-10, geometric, same- repeat | 161.3 | 138.1 | [ , ] | 157.1 | 140.9 | [ , ] | [ , ] | [ , ] |
| Method | Accuracy | Worst decile | Epochs | Compute |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FedAvg, | 57.0 1.4 | 34.6 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| FLASH client rule | 61.5 2.3 | 41.4 9.4 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| ALT | 59.4 1.1 | 41.1 3.7 | 18.2 | 29.1 |
| FedStop (geometric) | 60.4 1.2 | 39.7 4.4 | 3.8 | 6.4 |
| Equal split (control) | 61.4 1.2 | 40.8 6.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Quantity | CIFAR-10 | FEMNIST |
| First-decision drift price / later realised drift rate (median) | 16.2 | 6.9 |
| Client-rounds stopped after one epoch | 2.1% | 5.1% |
| Fitted : median [IQR] | 0.05 [0.05, 0.12] | 0.18 [0.08, 0.36] |
| at a search bound | 65.1% | 15.1% |
| Pooled lag-one correlation of progress surprises | ||
| Client-rounds ( epochs) meeting the margin of Corollary 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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