MT-CC: Multi-Group Temperature Scaling for Asymmetric Calibration Behavior in Class-Incremental Learning

Deep neural networks often produce poorly calibrated confidence estimates, overstating their certainty even when predictions are incorrect. Temperature Scaling remains the most widely used posthoc calibration method due to its simplicity and effectiveness, yet its global, uniform rescaling of logits fails to correct the highly heterogeneous structure of miscalibration observed across the confidence spectrum. In particular, the largest correctness confidence discrepancies arise in different quantile regions depending on the setting, low confidence predictions, where uncertainty matters most, tend to exhibit the largest correctness confidence discrepancies, which standard TS leaves largely unaddressed. We introduce Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling (QaTS), a simple and efficient post hoc calibration method that adapts the temperature as a function of a predictions empirical confidence quantile. By mapping confidences into the quantile space, QaTS normalizes the calibration problem, makes the structure of miscalibration explicit and enables a monotone temperature function that adapts across quantiles while leaving well calibrated high confidence predictions largely unchanged. preserving high confidence behavior. This quantile aware formulation aligns naturally with a reparameterized Expected Calibration Error (ECE) objective and yields a sample wise temperature that is robust across a variety of challenging scenarios, such as class imbalance and distributional shifts. Across a broad range of datasets, architectures, evaluation scenarios and diverse tasks, QaTS consistently, and substantially, outperforms state of the art post hoc calibration methods, delivering more reliable and trustworthy confidence estimates without modifying model predictions.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is commonly evaluated under predefined schedules with fixed or nearly equal class increments, leaving irregular class-arrival scenarios underexplored. However, practical CIL systems may need to update whenever new categories emerge, without forcing them into balanced task partitions. We formalize this setting as Free-Flow Class-Incremental Learning (FFCIL), where the number of newly arriving classes can vary substantially across learning stages. We show that variable class arrivals alter the class composition of incremental training, the reliability of new-class classifier statistics, and the consistency of representations learned across increments, causing clear performance degradation in both conventional and pre-trained model (PTM)-based CIL methods. To improve robustness under FFCIL, we introduce a general framework consisting of Class-Wise Mean (CWM), which replaces instance-wise loss aggregation with class-wise averaging; Dynamic Intervention Weight Alignment (DIWA), which adjusts new-class weight calibration according to the current increment size; and Head-Agnostic Alignment (HA), which performs feature-level correction for PTM-based methods using current and previous-class feature supervision. Extensive experiments across diverse methods, datasets, and class-arrival schedules demonstrate the general impact of FFCIL and the consistent effectiveness of our framework.

With the widespread adoption of deep learning in visual tasks, Class-Incremental Learning (CIL) has become an important paradigm for handling dynamically evolving data distributions. However, CIL faces the core challenge of catastrophic forgetting, often manifested as a prediction bias toward new classes. Existing methods mainly attribute this bias to intra-task class imbalance and focus on corrections at the classifier head. In this paper, we highlight an overlooked factor -- temporal imbalance -- as a key cause of this bias. Earlier classes receive stronger negative supervision toward the end of training, leading to asymmetric precision and recall. We establish a temporal supervision model, formally define temporal imbalance, and propose Temporal-Adjusted Loss (TAL), which uses a temporal decay kernel to construct a supervision strength vector and dynamically reweight the negative supervision in cross-entropy loss. Theoretical analysis shows that TAL degenerates to standard cross-entropy under balanced conditions and effectively mitigates prediction bias under imbalance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TAL significantly reduces forgetting and improves performance on multiple CIL benchmarks, underscoring the importance of temporal modeling for stable long-term learning.