Model Calibration

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Overview

For classifiers and language models, calibration asks whether confidence matches empirical correctness and develops post-hoc methods such as temperature scaling, isotonic regression, and local corrections, alongside training-time objectives. Online and multicalibration methods extend reliability to changing data, subgroups, and selective prediction, while conformal methods provide coverage guarantees for prediction sets or intervals. A related line calibrates mechanistic models and simulators to measurements using Bayesian inference, evolutionary optimization, differentiable surrogates, and data assimilation in areas such as climate, traffic, medicine, and engineering. Across settings from CIFAR and ImageNet to language-model question answering and clinical data, a central challenge is that aggregate calibration may fail for particular groups or under distribution shift, while flexible corrections require representative validation data and may affect accuracy or decisions.

Latest papers

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218 papers39 papers in the last four weeks, up 39% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. Simulated petrological labels enable probabilistic mineralogy prediction from whole-rock geochemistry

    Oct 27, 2026Matthew J. Liu, Aaron D. Kaplan, Michael L. Whittaker +1Earth ScienceSynthetic-to-Real Domain Adaptation

    Materials Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA · Energy Geosciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA

  2. MedJev: Evaluating Zero-Shot System-One Decision Making in Medicine

    Oct 26, 2026Simon A. Lee, Jiahang Sha, Moonseong Jeong +2Clinical Language Model EvaluationZero-Shot Learning

    UCLA Computational Medicine · UCLA Neurosurgery

  3. Temporal-Difference Calibration of Black-Box Simulators

    Oct 26, 2026Min Zeng, Xin Wen, Xi Chen +2Model CalibrationTemporal-Difference Learning

    College of Computing, City University of Hong Kong · Stern School of Business, New York University · Daniels School of Business, Purdue University +1

  4. From Single Spins to Ensembles: A Calibrated Symbolic Regression Pipeline for NV Spectroscopy

    Oct 26, 2026Evan Zhang, Zhenghang Zhi, Zewei Wang +1Magnetic Resonance SpectroscopyModel Calibration

    School of Physics, UNSW, Sydney, Australia · School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW · Cryo-X Tech Co., Shanghai, China +1

  5. Whether or Where? Tail Calibration Signals Finite-Budget Reward Hacking in Best-of-N Selection

    Oct 25, 2026Cheng Gui, Yihua Shao, Lei Li +2Best-of-N SamplingReward Over-Optimization

    City University of Hong Kong · University of Science and Technology Beijing · University of Washington +1

  6. SRA: Selective Residual Adaptation for LLM Reasoning Enhancement

    Oct 25, 2026Zhenxing Dou, Kun He, Mingyang Yi +1Language Model DistillationSelective Knowledge Distillation

    Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China · School of Information, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China

  7. Error-Subspace Calibration for Multi-Task Model Merging

    Oct 24, 2026Yeseul Cho, Hanseul Cho, Chulhee YunModel MergingModel Calibration

    Kim Jaechul Graduate School of AI, KAIST

  8. PAFS: Perturbation-Aware Firing Scaffolds for Robust Event-Based SNNs

    Oct 23, 2026Ning Liu, Jun Sun, Hao Guo +6Spiking Neural NetworksNeural Network Robustness

    The University of Western Australia, Australia · Nanjing University, China · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China +2

  9. Hyperreduction accelerates finite element model updating for the discovery of neural materials

    Oct 22, 2026Hagen Holthusen, Matthias Knipper, Kevin LinkaFinite Element MethodReduced-Order Modeling

    Computational Mechanics in Medicine, Institute of Applied Medical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Pauwelsstraße 20, 52074 Aachen, Germany

  10. Prediction Uncertainty Controlled Computer Model Calibration

    Oct 22, 2026Ryan Heejoon Byun, Dayeon Yoon, Won ChangModel CalibrationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Statistics, Seoul National University · Institute for Data Innovation in Science, Seoul National University

  11. Residual Calibration via Local Feature-Space Refinement

    Oct 22, 2026Xihao Wang, Chengyao Yu, Ruixing MingModel CalibrationPost-Hoc Calibration

    School of Statistics and Data Science, Zhejiang Gongshang University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology

  12. Estimating Performance for Safe Deployment of Machine Learning Models

    Oct 21, 2026Zeju Li, Konstantinos Kamnitsas, Mobarakol Islam +4Distribution ShiftModel Calibration

    College of Biomedical Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · Oxford Centre for Integrative Neuroimaging, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK · Department of Engineering Scienc, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK +4

  13. BCT: Bayes-Consistent Tempering for Flow Language Models

    Oct 20, 2026Daisuke Oba, Hiroki Furuta, Naoaki OkazakiLanguage ModelingFlow-Based Generative Modeling

    Institute of Science Tokyo · AIST · NII LLMC

  14. Teacher Supervision, Fixed Representations and Calibration: Exact Risk Calculations for Candidate-Scoring Decision Models

    Oct 19, 2026Agus Sudjianto, Denis BurakovModel CalibrationProbability Calibration

  15. Wet-Biased Data Pipelines Mislead the Training and Evaluation of Generative Precipitation Nowcasting

    Oct 19, 2026Christoph Metzl, Stefan Kapsreiter, Kianusch Vahid Yousefnia +4Precipitation NowcastingGenerative AI Evaluation

    Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany · Wismar University of Applied Sciences, Wismar, Germany · Arpae Emilia-Romagna, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service (SIMC), Bologna, Italy +1

  16. Typed Decision Models under Prevalence Shift: Decision Training, Calibration, and Implicit Priors

    Oct 19, 2026Abdul Rahman Iqbal, Muhammad Fawad Nasim, Amir SaleemLanguage Model CalibrationModel Calibration

    Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, The Superior University, Lahore, Pakistan · Independent Researcher

  17. UniJev: Separating Accuracy from Calibration in Trimodal System One Decision Models

    Oct 19, 2026Jianing Wang, Youwen Jian, Derong Wang +5Model CalibrationVLM Calibration

    Fudan University · Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences

  18. MT-CC: Multi-Group Temperature Scaling for Asymmetric Calibration Behavior in Class-Incremental Learning

    Oct 19, 2026Sungjun Yun, Yonghee Choi, Dong-Jun HanModel CalibrationPost-Hoc Calibration

    Yonsei University

  19. LLM Agents as Suppliers of Physical System Models: Calibration and Acceptance in Modelica

    Oct 18, 2026Jörg Frochte, Herbert SchmidtModel CalibrationLLM Agent Evaluation

    Bochum University of Applied Sciences

  20. Machine-learning-based neutrino-event generation constrained by experimental measurements

    Oct 14, 2026Jose Luis Bonilla, Krzysztof M. Graczyk, Rwik Dharmapal Banerjee +3High-Energy PhysicsConstrained Generative Modeling

    Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Wrocław, plac Maxa Borna 9, 50-204, Wrocław, Poland

  21. Noisy-Label Calibration with Multiple Unreliable Labels

    Oct 14, 2026Keisuke Hanada, Futoshi FutamiModel CalibrationProbability Calibration

    Department of Biostatistics, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, Japan · RIKEN AIP, Tokyo, Japan · Graduate School of Engineering Science, The University of Osaka, Osaka, Japan +1

  22. Delegating Earth science model calibration to knowledge-guided LLM agents

    Oct 13, 2026Zhanliang Zhu, Ziwei Li, Liujun Zhu +3Model CalibrationLLM Agent Harnesses

    State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China. · Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China. · Meta Platforms Inc., Menlo Park, California, USA. +1

  23. CALM-5G: Event-Level Conformal Risk Control for Predictive Service-Assurance Alarms

    Oct 13, 2026Ömer Faruk İşcanlı, Yağmur Sabucu SandalOnline CalibrationConformal Risk Control

    Siemens A.¸S., Istanbul, Türkiye

  24. Instance-Adaptive Online Multiclass Multicalibration

    Oct 11, 2026Zhiming Huang, Jamie Morgenstern, Aaron Roth +1MulticalibrationModel Calibration

    Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Washington · Amazon · Department of Computer and Information Sciences, University of Pennsylvania

  25. Calibration in One Go: Jointly Learning Accurate and Calibrated Neural Networks

    Oct 9, 2026Nektarios Kalampalikis, Pablo M. Olmos, Isabel ValeraModel CalibrationPost-Hoc Calibration

    Dept. of Computer Science Saarland University, Germany

  26. Fear Is Not Always Fear: Variation in Emotion Label Equivalence Across Datasets

    Oct 9, 2026Emily Öhman, Anna KoufakouEmotion RecognitionPsychometric Validation

    Waseda University, Japan · Florida Gulf Coast University, USA

  27. Do Not Train Away Uncertainty: Early Uncertainty Anchored Calibration

    Oct 8, 2026Yutong Xie, Jiawei Tang, Zhenglin Hua +6Model CalibrationUncertainty Calibration

    School of Software Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, China · School of Computing Information Sciences, Saint Francis University, Hong Kong, China +2

  28. Learning to Orchestrate Evolutionary Search: Progression-Aware Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic DE-CMA-ES Coordination in Optimization and Structural Model Updating

    Oct 8, 2026Lechen Li, Rongye Shi, Wanhuan ZhouEvolutionary OptimizationModel Calibration

    State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau 519000, China · College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China · School of Artificial Intelligence, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

  29. Align Before You Combine: Reference Space Calibration for Supervision Without Ground Truth

    Oct 7, 2026Jackson Eshbaugh, Jorge SilveyraModel Calibration

    Department of Computer Science Lafayette College Easton, PA, USA

  30. Adjoint-Based Calibration and Optimal Control of Stochastic Multiscale Bioprocess Digital Twins

    Oct 7, 2026Keilung Choy, Wei XieActive Experimental DesignDigital Twins

    Northeastern University