Model Calibration

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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 91% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Align Before You Combine: Reference Space Calibration for Supervision Without Ground Truth

    Oct 7, 2026Jackson Eshbaugh, Jorge SilveyraModel Calibration

    Department of Computer Science Lafayette College Easton, PA, USA

  2. Adjoint-Based Calibration and Optimal Control of Stochastic Multiscale Bioprocess Digital Twins

    Oct 7, 2026Keilung Choy, Wei XieDigital TwinsModel Calibration

    Northeastern University

  3. Careful Judge: Safe and Efficient Human-AI Collaborative Decision Making

    Oct 6, 2026Chenyu Zhang, Rachel Luo, Boyi Li +3Human-AI Decision MakingHuman-in-the-Loop AI

    MIT · NVIDIA · NVIDIA, Stanford University

  4. Neighborhood Smoothing for Calibration

    Oct 6, 2026Idan Horowitz, Avigdor GalModel Calibration

    Faculty of Data and Decision Sciences Technion Haifa, 3200003, IL

  5. High-dimensional online calibration from harmonic weights

    Oct 6, 2026Maxwell Fishelson, Mehryar MohriProbability CalibrationModel Calibration

    Institute for Advanced Study. · Google Research and Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York.

  6. Sharp Integrality Gaps in Calibration Distance

    Oct 5, 2026Zinan Wang, Xinhao YangProbability CalibrationModel Calibration

    University of Manchester · University of Southern California

  7. Auditing Routing Entropy as an Uncertainty Signal in Attention-Residual Transformers

    Oct 1, 2026Wenhao Liang, Lin Yue, Wei Emma Zhang +3Uncertainty QuantificationModel Calibration

    Adelaide University, Adelaide, Australia

  8. Calibration-risk routing for controlled world-model adaptation

    Oct 1, 2026Yifan Zhang, Liang ZhengWorld Models for RoboticsWorld Models

    Central South University

  9. Benchmarking EMlog Calibration for Autonomous Surface Vehicles

    Sep 30, 2026Samuel Cohen-Salmon, Itzik KleinModel CalibrationRobot State Estimation

    The Hatter Department of Marine Technologies Charney School of Marine Sciences, University of Haifa Haifa, Israel

  10. Signal-Routed Temperature Scaling: Low-Capacity Risk-Conditioned Calibration for Small Validation Budgets

    Sep 30, 2026Wenhao Liang, Liangwei Nathan Zheng, Lin Yue +4Post-Hoc CalibrationModel Calibration

    Adelaide University, Adelaide, Australia

  11. How Much Can Reliability Drift Under a Fixed Confidence Distribution?

    Sep 30, 2026Wenhao Liang, Lin Yue, Wei Emma Zhang +3Distribution Shift RobustnessProbability Calibration

    Adelaide University

  12. SCALE: Synthetic Calibration via Agreement Labeling in Embedding Space

    Sep 30, 2026Wenjun Liu, Saeed HassanpourComputational PathologyPathology Foundation Models

    Department of Computer Science Dartmouth College Hanover, NH, USA · Departments of Biomedical Data Science, Computer Science, and Epidemiology Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA

  13. StatD2GAN: When Calibration Masks Generator Quality in Held-Out Evaluation of Synthetic Weather Sequences

    Sep 27, 2026Mustafa Ozaytac, Ozge Karadag AtasTime Series GenerationModel Calibration

    Department of Statistics, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Hacettepe University, Ankara, 06800, Turkey · Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, Ankara, 06800, Turkey

  14. Improving Calibration of Black-Box Radiology AI Using Test-Time Augmentation

    Sep 24, 2026Nathan Le, Magdalini Paschali, Arogya Koirala +5Post-Hoc Calibration3D Medical Imaging

    Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA · Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA · Department of Anesthesia, Intensive Care Medicine, and Pain Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Spitalgasse 23, 1090 Vienna, Austria

  15. Few-Shot Calibration for Sim-to-Real Single-Channel Speaker Distance Estimation

    Sep 24, 2026Michael Neri, Archontis Politis, Tuomas VirtanenSim-to-Real TransferSpeech Processing

    Faculty of Information Technology and Communication Sciences, Tampere University, Finland

  16. CORE-STACK+: Meta-Learning for Deep Stacked Generalization

    Sep 22, 2026Noor Islam S. MohammadEnsemble LearningMeta-Learning

    Department of Computer Science Istanbul Technical University Maslak, Istanbul 34469, TR

  17. How to Estimate Whether You Have Found Several Needles in a Haystack: Measuring Calibration in Multi-Label Text Classification

    Sep 22, 2026Sophie Henning, Georg Hofmann, Alexander Schulte +2Multi-Label ClassificationLanguage Model Calibration

    TU Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · LMU Munich +3

  18. A Practical Guide on Graphical Model Validation

    Sep 22, 2026Mario V. WüthrichProbability CalibrationModel Calibration

    Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich

  19. PICPIs: Prediction-Interval-Conditional Prediction Intervals

    Sep 21, 2026Xuelin Yang, Baihe Huang, Yilong Hou +2Probability CalibrationConformal Prediction

    University of California, Berkeley · Stanford University · Inria Paris

  20. Testing, not presuming, adequacy: calibrating generative social simulators against emergent network structure

    Sep 21, 2026Tengfei Shao, Chao Li, Xu Wang +1Simulation-Based InferenceComputational Social Science

    Global Education Center, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan · Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan · School of Informatics, Gunma University, Gunma, Japan

  21. Calibrated RF-Fingerprinting Under Interference With Heterogeneous Transmission Protocols

    Sep 17, 2026Tariq Abdul-Quddoos, Xiangfang Li, Lijun QianWireless CommunicationsModel Calibration

    CREDIT Center and Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Prairie View A&M University, Texas A&M University System Prairie View, TX 77446, USA

  22. Bridging the Confidence Gap: Temperature Scaling for Calibrating Test-Time Prompt Tuning

    Sep 15, 2026Yuwei Liang, Jian Liang, Dapeng Hu +2Post-Hoc CalibrationTest-Time Adaptation of VLMs

    School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · NLPR & MAIS, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · Independent Researcher

  23. Beyond Noise: Understanding and Overcoming Temperature Effects in Analog DNN Inference

    Sep 14, 2026Niklas Summ, Xiao Wang, Hendrik Borras +2Neural Network RobustnessModel Calibration

    Hardware and Artificial Intelligence Lab, Institute of Computer Engineering, Heidelberg University, Germany

  24. A Ranking Approach for Measuring Calibration

    Sep 14, 2026Anirban Chatterjee, Rina Foygel BarberProbability CalibrationModel Calibration

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics Boston University · Department of Statistics University of Chicago

  25. Agentic TCAD Calibration Workflow for Oxide Semiconductor Transistors

    Sep 10, 2026Gyujun Jeong, Junmo Lee, Sungwon Cho +11Agentic WorkflowsModel Calibration

    School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

  26. Reliability-Aware Hybrid-K Ensemble Selection for Cervical Cytology Classification: Integrating Discrimination, Calibration, and Selective Prediction

    Sep 10, 2026Nisreen Albzour, Sarah S. LamComputational PathologyEnsemble Learning

    School of Systems Science and Industrial Engineering, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY 13902, USA

  27. Geometry-Aware Bayesian Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning on the Stiefel Manifold via Stein Variational Gradient Descent

    Sep 8, 2026Quang-Duy Tran, Trung Le, Bao Duong +2Stiefel Manifold OptimizationUncertainty Quantification

    Deakin Applied Artificial Intelligence Initiative, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia · Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland · Department of Data Science & AI, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

  28. Contact-Constrained Lower-Limb Joint-Offset Calibration for Humanoid Robots

    Sep 2, 2026Kaixiang Lu, Haiyu Lan, Chunxiao Qiao +5Model CalibrationHumanoid Robotics

    AGIBOT

  29. Integrated Laser Scanning and Image-Based Topology Optimization Techniques for Detection and Quantification of Visible and Subsurface Structural Defects

    Sep 1, 2026Mehrdad Shafiei Dizaji, Devin HarrisPoint Cloud Anomaly DetectionModel Calibration

    Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA

  30. Let Confidence Change, Not the Prediction: Prediction-Preserving Repair for Post-hoc Calibration

    Sep 1, 2026Daehwan Kim, Haejun Chung, Ikbeom JangPost-Hoc CalibrationProbability Calibration

    Hanyang University, Seoul, Republic of Korea · Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin, Republic of Korea

  31. DreamLedger: Where to Refuse World-Model Imagination Using Execution-Settled Credit

    Aug 24, 2026Xianyao Li, Ruitong Tian, Rui Min +2Selective PredictionRobotics

    Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA · Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

  32. Conditional Validity for Adaptive Modality Acquisition: When the Policy Chooses Its Own Calibration Group

    Aug 16, 2026Melika BaghiEfficient Multimodal InferenceSelective Prediction

    Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA

  33. Exponential Convex Calibration Dimension for the Multi-Label Jaccard Measure

    Aug 13, 2026Mingyuan ZhangMulti-Label ClassificationModel Calibration

    Independent Researcher

  34. Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

    Aug 12, 2026Coby PensoUnsupervised Domain AdaptationConformal Prediction

    The Faculty of Engineering, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel

  35. Transferable Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) Estimation Model from Multi-Sensor Data with Sparse Field Calibration

    Aug 12, 2026Pann Thinzar Seint, Bryan Atwood, Subas ChhatkuliRemote SensingModel Calibration

    DAI Labs, K.K.

  36. Variational Parameter Calibration with Physics-Aware Latent-Space Surrogates

    Aug 11, 2026Qiyao Zhou, Xujia Zhu, Pierre Joli +2Neural Surrogate ModelingParameter Estimation

    LMEE, UnivEvry, Université Paris-Saclay, Evry, France · L2S, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, CentraleSupéléc, Gif-sur-Yvette, France · CEREA, ENPC, EDF R&D, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Île-de-France, France

  37. Invertible Logits Transformation for Accuracy-Preserving Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibration

    Aug 11, 2026Lening Zhao, Qipeng Zhan, Li ShenPost-Hoc CalibrationModel Calibration

    University of Pennsylvania

  38. SoftMCC: An MCC-Brier Calibration Bridge for Threshold-Free Model Selection under Class Imbalance

    Aug 10, 2026Özkan CanayClass-Imbalanced LearningModel Calibration

    Department of Information Systems and Technologies Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences Sakarya University, Esentepe Campus 54050 Serdivan, Sakarya, Türkiye

  39. Exact Rank and Convex Calibration Dimension Lower Bounds for the Multi-Label F1 Loss

    Aug 9, 2026Mingyuan ZhangMulti-Label ClassificationModel Calibration

    Independent Researcher

  40. Conformal Calibration for Multi-Modal Regression with Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Ilia AziziGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionModel Calibration

    Department of Operations, HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne, Switzerland · BegooAI, Switzerland

  41. Dirichlet Follow-the-Leader Closes the Gap in Simultaneous Multiclass U-Calibration

    Aug 7, 2026Pahan DewasurendraProbabilistic ForecastingFollow-the-Regularized-Leader

    Johns Hopkins University

  42. Respect Your Zero-Shot Uncertainty: Conservative Calibration for Test-Time-Adapted Vision-Language Models

    Aug 6, 2026Jingyan Jiang, Yaru Sun, Xiao Chen +5VLM AdaptationTest-Time Adaptation of VLMs

    1Shenzhen Technology University · 3Shenzhen University · 2Tsinghua University +1

  43. Sample Complexity of Multicalibration for Multilevel Properties

    Aug 4, 2026Jiuyao Lu, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Aleksandr Podkopaev +1Sample ComplexityModel Calibration

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania · 2Amazon · Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis

  44. When Measurement Conventions Masquerade as Calibration Gains in Cardiac Digital Twins

    Aug 3, 2026Dang P. M. Cao, Hieu PhamLeft Ventricular Ejection Fraction EstimationEchocardiography

    College of Engineering and Computer Science, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Vietnam · VinUni-Illinois Smart Health Center, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Vietnam · Center for Innovations in Health Sciences, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Vietnam

  45. Amortizing the Calibration Triple: A Projection-Consistent Neural Operator for Local-Stochastic Volatility

    Aug 2, 2026Xiaozhen Wang, Anaïs Després, Martin Dureau +1Quantitative FinanceModel Calibration

    1CEREMADE, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL · 2LaMME, Université Évry Paris-Saclay · 3AIML Global Markets, Barclays

  46. Subtype Robustness Is Not Just Accuracy: Calibration Under Unseen Subtype Shift

    Aug 2, 2026Hanyu Su, Carlota Julbe i Juanola, Yibo HuDistribution Shift RobustnessNeural Network Robustness

    Illinois Institute of Technology

  47. A Physics-Chemistry-Informed Neural Network (PCINN) for Real-Time Spatial-ALD Coverage Prediction and Reliable Kinetics Inversion

    Jul 31, 2026Ning Hu, Chang Liu, Yunlei Jiang +1Neural Surrogate ModelingParameter Identifiability

    School of Mechanical Engineering, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China · Information Engineering School, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China

  48. SpecCal: Ambiguity-Aware Candidate Calibration for Infrared Spectrum-Based Molecular Structure Reconstruction

    Jul 30, 2026Yixuan Chen, Bo Liu, Yusen Tan +3Model Calibration

    College of Computer Science and Technology, Jilin University · School of Mathematics, Jilin University · Information Hub, HKUST(GZ) +3

  49. An analysis of binary isotonic regression: degrees of freedom and implications for calibration

    Jul 29, 2026Raphael Rossellini, Rina Foygel Barber, Zhimei Ren +1Probability CalibrationModel Calibration

    Department of Statistics, University of Chicago · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Statistics, University of Michigan

  50. CalTwin: Towards Calibrated, Shift-Robust Medical World Models via Fisher-Information Regularisation

    Jul 29, 2026Behraj Khan, Shabir Ahmad, Syed Ahmad Chan Bukhari +1World Model LearningDomain Adaptation

    Institute of Business Administration Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan · Gachon University, Korea · St. John’s University, New York, USA

  51. Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictor

    Jul 22, 2026Lunjia Hu, Kevin Tian, Chutong YangModel Calibration

    Northeastern University · University of Texas at Austin

  52. The Calibration Channel Determines the Bayes-Error Proxy: An Exact Law for Temperature-Induced Distortion

    Jul 20, 2026Shreyas Pradeepkumar KhandalePost-Hoc CalibrationProbability Calibration

    School of Computing Binghamton University (SUNY) Binghamton, NY, USA

  53. Agentic Calibration of Grey-Box Simulation Models: An LLM-Driven Alternative

    Jul 17, 2026David Gómez-Guillén, Mireia Diaz, Josep Lluis Arcos +1Parameter EstimationBlack-Box Optimization

    Unit of Infections and Cancer – Information and Interventions (UNIC-I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology-IDIBELL, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain · Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Spain · Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Madrid, Spain +1

  54. CardioMeta: Calibrated Multi-Task Prediction of Diabetes, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease Across Population and EHR Data

    Jul 17, 2026S M Asif Hossain, Ruksat Khan Shayoni, M. F. Mridha +1Multi-Task LearningModel Calibration

    School of Computing, Wichita State University, Kansas, USA · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, American International University-Bangladesh, Bangladesh · School of Computer Science and Engineering, The University of Aizu, Aizuwakamatsu, Japan

  55. Beyond scalar losses: calibrating segmentation models via gradient vector field surgery

    Jul 15, 2026Laurin Lux, Alexander H. Berger, Moritz Knolle +2Model CalibrationMedical Image Segmentation

    School of Computation, Information and Technology, TUM, Munich, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning, Munich, Germany · Department of Radiology, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York City, USA +3

  56. Temperature Scaling Is Not Enough: Calibration Gaps Under Human Label Distributions

    Jul 15, 2026Wisdom DogahPost-Hoc CalibrationLanguage Model Calibration

    Faculty of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, University of Mines and Technology (UMaT), Tarkwa, Ghana. · BlackMatrix AI Research, Accra, Ghana.

  57. Efficient Sequential Calibration with O(T2/3−ε)O(T^{2/3-ε}) Error Bound

    Jul 14, 2026Zihan ZhangProbability CalibrationModel Calibration

    Department of CSE, HKUST

  58. AdaPCLA: Adaptive Prior-Calibrated Logit Adjustment for Long-Tailed Longitudinal EHR Generation

    Jul 14, 2026Shuai Cui, Chen Wenxuan, Wenjie Du +3Long-Tail LearningSynthetic Data Generation

    University of Science and Technology of China · Sun Yat-sen University

  59. Condition-Stratified Robustness Analysis of Post-Hoc Calibration Methods for Probabilistic Classifiers

    Jul 13, 2026Gurdeep Singh VirdeePost-Hoc CalibrationProbability Calibration

    Fergana State Technical University, Uzbekistan

  60. TabPFN beyond Tabular Data: Calibration and Accuracy on Multimodal Embeddings

    Jul 13, 2026Jingxiang Zhang, Lujia Zhong, Zijie Zhu +2Multimodal EmbeddingMultimodal Classification

    University of Southern California