Evidence Sufficiency and Model Comparisons in MexRegQA: An Item-Level Audit of Mexican-Spanish Regulatory QA

Frontier models score well on shallow document/chart reading tasks. In a controlled data-room audit, moving evidence into buried conditions reduced accuracy, increased forced declarations, increased tool calls, and increased cost per correct answer. Confidence and benchmark calibration did not fully capture wrong answers; a documented production incident shows fabricated structural claims can be mixed with accurate numeric tables. Agentic evaluations need claim-level receipts (statement-level provenance, not answer-level scores), condition-aware scoring, and human-adversarial verification - an auditing discipline, not a leaderboard. The setting we measure is financial due diligence; the setting we are building toward next is defense staff work, where the same buried-evidence shape appears. In both, the model is not a party to the consequences; the person who signs is. In plain terms: in the documented cases we examine, agents can pair accurate numbers with confident fabricated explanations, and the burden of proof must therefore move from the model to the evidence trail.

As Large Language Models rapidly advance, performance on standard multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) benchmarks is reaching saturation. While the community has responded by developing increasingly difficult datasets, validating question quality and filtering flawed items remains a labor-intensive process. To provide a scalable diagnostic approach, we propose a two-component probabilistic framework for auditing MCQA benchmarks using model output distributions. First, for benchmark-level analysis, we characterize the probability landscape using the top prediction probability ($P_{top1}$) and normalized residual entropy ($H_{norm}$), summarized globally by Mean Pairwise Distance (MPD). Second, for item-level diagnostics, we introduce noise injection to reduce meaningful distractor competition, enabling us to flag candidate items for targeted human review and categorize residual failure patterns. Across four MCQA benchmarks, our landscape analysis reveals benchmark-level differences in model confidence and residual option competition. Concurrently, our noise-injection method flags potentially actionable item-level issues, showing alignment with expert error annotations from MMLU-Redux. These results suggest that our probability-based framework provides a lightweight audit lens for comparing macro-level benchmark structure and prioritizing individual items for targeted human review.

Final-answer accuracy, retrieval recall, and citation overlap do not reveal how much answer advantage a long-context or retrieval-augmented language model actually recovers from supplied evidence. A model may answer from parametric priors, fail to use evidence that is present, or cite relevant text without converting it into the final answer. This paper introduces a four-condition diagnostic protocol for evidence-utilization evaluation under matched examples, models, prompts, and scoring rules. The protocol compares no-evidence, full-context, retrieved-evidence, and oracle-evidence reference conditions, and uses Oracle-Reference Normalized Context Utilization (ONCU) as a denominator-valid estimate of recovered oracle-reference evidence advantage. The empirical study evaluates five local open-weight models from the Qwen, Gemma, Llama, and Mistral families over Controlled-ONCU-safe16K, HotpotQA-ONCU, and 2WikiMultiHopQA-ONCU, comprising 18,000 ONCU-compatible predictions. Results show a task-dependent diagnostic pattern: controlled synthetic settings expose reduced recovery when the same evidence is embedded in long input rather than supplied compactly, while realistic multi-hop reconstructions show that full-context inputs outperform the tested retrieved inputs in denominator-free answer and evidence metrics, with ONCU supporting the same direction on oracle-improving groups. Sensitivity audits with stronger retrieval settings narrow some gaps but do not overturn the scoped interpretation. The main contribution is therefore not a single utilization ratio, but a matched diagnostic protocol that separates no-evidence answerability, oracle-evidence recoverability, full-context recovery, retrieval-conditioned recovery, denominator validity, and companion answer/evidence diagnostics.