Towards instance-dependent regret optimality in Episodic MDPs with Posterior Sampling

Posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) is one of the simplest and most effective exploration methods, but a basic question has remained open: does unmodified PSRL achieve minimax regret without structural assumptions on the prior? We answer yes. Exact vanilla PSRL is minimax optimal in leading-order Bayesian regret under arbitrary correlated priors. The difficulty is that a posterior-sampled transition model is coupled with its own continuation value. We overcome this with a common empirical transition reference that isolates the resulting value mismatch and a Bellman-based variance argument that controls it without an extra leading-order state-space factor. For finite-horizon, time-inhomogeneous tabular MDPs with unknown stochastic rewards, this yields the minimax $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{SAH^3K})$ regret rate under arbitrary joint priors over rewards and transitions. The same proof principle gives the minimax $\widetilde{O}(d\sqrt{H^3K})$ rate for linear-mixture MDPs under arbitrary joint parameter priors.

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is a heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop successful algorithms for a variety of continuous control problems. However, theoretical work on GP-PSRL is limited. All known regret bounds either have a sub-optimal growth rate, require strong smoothness assumptions, or fail to properly account for the fact that the set of possible system states is unbounded. Through a recursive application of the Borell-Tsirelson-Ibragimov-Sudakov inequality, we show that, with high probability, the states actually visited by the algorithm are contained within a ball of near-constant radius. We then use the chaining method to control the regret suffered by GP-PSRL under weak smoothness conditions. Our main result is a Bayesian regret bound of the order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H\sqrt{γ_TT})$, where $H$ is the horizon, $T$ is the number of time steps and $γ_T$ is the expected information gain. With this result, we resolve the limitations with prior theoretical work on PSRL, and provide the theoretical foundation and tools for analyzing PSRL in complex settings.

We study reward-free and reward-agnostic exploration in episodic finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs), where an agent explores an unknown environment without observing external rewards. Reward-free exploration aims to enable $ε$-optimal policies for any reward revealed after exploration, while reward-agnostic exploration targets $ε$-optimality for rewards drawn from a small finite class. In the reward-agnostic setting, Li, Yan, Chen, and Fan achieve minimax sample complexity, but only for restrictively small accuracy parameter $ε$. We propose a new algorithm that significantly relaxes the requirement on $ε$. Our approach is novel and of technical interest by itself. Our algorithm employs an online learning procedure with carefully designed rewards to construct an exploration policy, which is used to gather data sufficient for accurate dynamics estimation and subsequent computation of an $ε$-optimal policy once the reward is revealed. Finally, we establish a tight lower bound for reward-free exploration, closing the gap between known upper and lower bounds.