Observation Assimilation Transformer: Probabilistic Weather Analysis from Sparse Station Observations

Numerical weather prediction has long been constrained by the computational bottlenecks inherent in data assimilation and numerical modeling. While machine learning has accelerated forecasting, existing models largely serve as "emulators of reanalysis products," thereby retaining their systematic biases and operational latencies. Here, we present FuXiWeather2, a unified end-to-end neural framework for assimilation and forecasting. We align training objectives directly with a combination of real-world observations and reanalysis data, enabling the framework to effectively rectify inherent errors within reanalysis products. To address the distribution shift between NWP-derived background inputs during training and self-generated backgrounds during deployment, we introduce a recursive unrolling training method to enhance the precision and stability of analysis generation. Furthermore, our model is trained on a hybrid dataset of raw and simulated observations to mitigate the impact of observational distribution inconsistency. FuXiWeather2 generates high-resolution ($0.25^{\circ}$) global analysis fields and 10-day forecasts within minutes. The analysis fields surpass the NCEP-GFS across most variables and demonstrate superior accuracy over both ERA5 and the ECMWF-HRES system in lower-tropospheric and surface variables. These high-quality analysis fields drive deterministic forecasts that exceed the skill of the HRES system in 91% of evaluated metrics. Additionally, its outstanding performance in typhoon track prediction underscores its practical value for rapid response to extreme weather events. The FuXiWeather2 analysis dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18872728.

While AI-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) enables rapid forecasting, generating high-resolution outputs remains computationally demanding due to limited multi-scale adaptability and inefficient data representations. We propose the 3D Gaussian splatting-based scale-aware vision transformer (GSSA-ViT), a novel framework for arbitrary-resolution forecasting and flexible downscaling of high-dimensional atmospheric fields. Specifically, latitude-longitude grid points are treated as centers of 3D Gaussians. A generative 3D Gaussian prediction scheme is introduced to estimate key parameters, including covariance, attributes, and opacity, for unseen samples, improving generalization and mitigating overfitting. In addition, a scale-aware attention module is designed to capture cross-scale dependencies, enabling the model to effectively integrate information across varying downscaling ratios and support continuous resolution adaptation. To our knowledge, this is the first NWP approach that combines generative 3D Gaussian modeling with scale-aware attention for unified multi-scale prediction. Experiments on ERA5 show that the proposed method accurately forecasts 87 atmospheric variables at arbitrary resolutions, while evaluations on ERA5 and CMIP6 demonstrate its superior performance in downscaling tasks. The proposed framework provides an efficient and scalable solution for high-resolution, multi-scale atmospheric prediction and downscaling. Code is available at: https://github.com/binbin2xs/weather-GS.

Weather transformers process dense reanalysis fields whose reliability varies across variables, locations, and weather regimes. Token merging can reduce computation, but feature similarity alone does not account for this heterogeneous input uncertainty. We introduce UtoMe, an observation-uncertainty-guided token merging framework that combines dynamics saliency with ensemble data assimilation spread as a relative input-reliability proxy. The resulting importance score protects selected tokens as anchors and calibrates bipartite matching between the remaining tokens. Three variants use external uncertainty at both training and inference, during training only, or neither stage. In ERA5 72-hour forecasting at two spatial resolutions, UtoMe improves Overall error over train-time ToMe at matched token budgets. At $1.40625^\circ$ and 50% token reduction, UtoMe-E lowers Overall error from 67.32 to 53.00 at the same 0.55x encoder FLOPs. Small reductions remain close to the full-token baseline; larger reductions incur measurable accuracy losses. Component ablations and spatial uncertainty controls support combining dynamics with aligned uncertainty when allocating a weather transformer's token budget.