DecisionPivot: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Decision Models in LLM Systems

Large language models are widely used as judges of model outputs (LLM-as-a-Judge), but they are costly and can hallucinate or be overconfident. Decision models are a potential alternative. They return a predefined verdict with a probability for each label instead of free-form text and are much cheaper and faster. We test this promise on hallucination detection. We build binary benchmarks for five hallucination types (9,852 items from six datasets) and compare five decision models with the generative judge gpt-6-sol. Performance depends strongly on the type: the best decision model matches gpt-6-sol in balanced accuracy on context inconsistency and comes within 3 percentage points on factual errors, but trails it by 4-8 points on logical and instruction inconsistency. Decision-model probabilities are overconfident, though less so than the GPT-6 models, and separate correct from incorrect decisions only moderately. We also find that a confidence cascade of decision models improves on the best single model by 1.9-3.3 points on three types and matches or exceeds gpt-6-sol at 1-3% of its cost. Overall, decision models are a practical low-cost judge for some hallucination types but need to be validated before use.

We introduce StartLux-Decision, decision models from 0.8B to 27B parameters that combine efficient single-pass prediction with adaptive, confidence-guided reasoning. The Instant models use bidirectional attention in full-attention layers to improve decision accuracy while keeping single-pass inference. The AutoThink models invoke explicit reasoning for uncertain decisions and answer confident cases directly. A three-stage training pipeline establishes shared decision capabilities, specializes the two variants, and equips AutoThink with reasoning through reasoning supervision and reinforcement learning. We introduce Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Deliberative Decisions (RLCD$^2$), which uses a frozen model and proper scoring rules to reward improvements in decision probability quality and applies a soft penalty to overlong reasoning traces. RLCD$^2$ raises the share of reasoning traces that terminate within the generation limit by up to 48 percentage points and cuts average reasoning length by up to 65%, while largely preserving decision accuracy. On the public subset of Decision Index 0.3, the Instant models outperform the strongest evaluated comparable-scale open-weight decision models by 7.4-16.9 points, and the 27B AutoThink model reaches 73.4. We also introduce DecisionPivot, a programmatically verifiable benchmark of computational decisions built from contrast pairs that differ in a single answer-changing detail. On DecisionPivot, AutoThink outperforms its Instant counterparts by 11.5-18.4 points in pair accuracy and leads among evaluated systems. The models can be run using frameworks such as vLLM and MLX, with quantized versions available to reduce memory usage.Inference code and links to model weights are available at https://github.com/StartLuxLabs/Startlux-Decision .

General decision models, such as Jev, have recently emerged as efficient alternatives to LLMs for structured judgment and selection. But what kinds of decisions can these models reliably make, and how does their behavior change when individual decisions are composed into larger systems? To study this, we introduce JEVal, a bilingual benchmark comprising 11,257 instances from 36 datasets across 10 application domains, and evaluate 25 model configurations spanning general decision models and generative LLMs. Our results show that (1) general decision models are most competitive when decisions can be resolved from available evidence, but weaken when they require specialist knowledge or faithful uncertainty estimation: they can often identify the most likely outcome while substantially overstating its probability. (2) In more dynamic and realistic systems involving long-horizon, multi-step interactions, the advantages of fast local decision making are offset by reliability failures at the system level. on $τ$-bench, faster local decisions reduce median episode time but lower task success as decision errors accumulate over long trajectories. (3) In large-scale social simulation, decision models approach strong generative LLMs on individual response prediction at substantially lower inference cost, yet remain weaker in user profiling and exhibit larger aggregate estimation errors and systematic bias. Finally, we propose SII-Decision-4B and SII-Decision-27B, which internalize an open-weight LLM's own reasoning into a single-pass first-token decision through Reasoning-to-Readout Self-Distillation, with SII-Decision-27B performing on par with Jev on JEVal while answering a typical query in about 0.1 s.