CRANE: Post-Hoc Counterfactual Retrieval for Multimodal Classifiers

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) increasingly support high-stakes decision making by combining complementary information from images and text. While existing explainability methods identify influential image regions or text tokens, they cannot answer a fundamental question: which modality drives a prediction? Consequently, a model may produce the correct output while relying on the wrong source of evidence, masking shortcut learning and unsafe reasoning. We formulate modality attribution as a complementary explainability objective for multimodal foundation models and propose Counterfactual Modality Attribution (CMA), the first framework for quantifying modality-level contributions in MLLMs. CMA generates image-only, text-only, and joint multimodal counterfactuals using coupled diffusion priors and converts them into principled modality attribution scores through a cooperative game-theoretic formulation based on Shapley values. We evaluate CMA on controlled synthetic benchmarks with known ground-truth modality reliance and on a real-world multimodal clinical dataset. CMA correctly identifies the decision-driving modality in 98% of controlled cases and consistently outperforms baselines, revealing failures of cross-modal reasoning that remain invisible to predictive accuracy alone. Our results establish modality attribution as a complementary dimension of explainability beyond feature attribution, providing a principled framework for auditing multimodal foundation models in safety-critical applications.

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are essential for interpreting black-box models, yet they often become invalid when models are slightly changed. Existing methods for generating robust CFEs are often limited to specific types of models, require costly tuning, or inflexible robustness controls. We propose a novel approach that jointly models the data distribution and the space of plausible model decisions to ensure robustness to model changes. Using a probabilistic consensus over a model ensemble, we train a conditional normalizing flow that captures the data density under varying levels of classifier agreement. At inference time, a single interpretable parameter controls the robustness level; it specifies the minimum fraction of models that should agree on the target class without retraining the generative model. Our method effectively pushes CFEs toward regions that are both plausible and stable across model changes. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves superior empirical robustness while also maintaining good performance across other evaluation measures.

Counterfactual explanations (CFs) provide human-interpretable insights into model's predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter the model's output. However, existing methods struggle to generate multiple high-quality explanations that (1) affect only a small portion of the features, (2) can be applied to tabular data with heterogeneous features, and (3) are consistent with the user-defined constraints. We propose CounterFlowNet, a generative approach that formulates CF generation as sequential feature modification using conditional Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNet). CounterFlowNet is trained to sample CFs proportionally to a user-specified reward function that can encode key CF desiderata: validity, sparsity, proximity and plausibility, encouraging high-quality explanations. The sequential formulation yields highly sparse edits, while a unified action space seamlessly supports continuous and categorical features. Moreover, actionability constraints, such as immutability and monotonicity of features, can be enforced at inference time via action masking, without retraining. Experiments on eight datasets under two evaluation protocols demonstrate that CounterFlowNet achieves superior trade-offs between validity, sparsity, plausibility, and diversity with full satisfaction of the given constraints.