Counterfactual Explanations

Overview

Counterfactual explanations ask what minimal or feasible changes to an instance would make a model produce a different prediction, helping users inspect decisions and identify possible recourse. Methods range from gradient or evolutionary optimization and nearest-neighbor search to formal solvers, causal models, and generative approaches such as VAEs, diffusion, and flows; many impose constraints on immutable features, costs, temporal order, or domain plausibility. Work spans tabular decisions as well as images, graphs, time series, recommenders, clinical systems, and autonomous agents, with evaluation balancing validity, sparsity, proximity, plausibility, diversity, and robustness. A central tension is that a valid model flip may be unrealistic or infeasible for a person; robustness depends on which model changes are tested, and automatic quality metrics do not always match human judgments.

Latest papers

CardsList

117 papers14 papers in the last four weeks, down 12% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Counterfactual Profile Perturbations for Recommendation Explanations: A Reproducibility Study

    Oct 26, 2026Meysam Varasteh, Elizabeth McKinnie, Robin BurkeExplainable RecommendationCounterfactual Explanations

  2. CounterFlow: Target-Conditioned Flow Matching for Visual Counterfactuals

    Oct 26, 2026Paul Sevellec, Elisa Fromont, Romaric Gaudel +3Counterfactual ExplanationsCounterfactual Image Generation

  3. Formal Explanations for Linear Temporal Logic over Finite Traces

    Oct 26, 2026Valeria Fionda, Antonio Ielo, Francesco RiccaCounterfactual ExplanationsLinear Temporal Logic

  4. From Explaining to Enabling: Actionable Transparency in Algorithmic Insurance Pricing

    Oct 25, 2026Agathe Fernandes Machado, Fei HuangAlgorithmic RecourseAlgorithmic Accountability

  5. CRANE: Post-Hoc Counterfactual Retrieval for Multimodal Classifiers

    Oct 22, 2026Franco Rugolon, Ioanna Miliou, Panagiotis PapapetrouCounterfactual ExplanationsMultimodal Model Interpretability

  6. Constraint Reasoning and Large Language Models Join Forces: Providing Contrastive Explanations for Real-World Optimisation-Based Applications

    Oct 22, 2026Roger X. Lera-Leri, Filippo Bistaffa, Athina Georgara +1Constraint-Guided Reasoning in Language ModelsCounterfactual Explanations

  7. Robust Counterfactuals for Markov Decision Processes under Statistical and Causal Uncertainties

    Oct 14, 2026Jessica Lally, Milad Kazemi, Nicola PaolettiCounterfactual ExplanationsMarkov Decision Processes

  8. Is a 9B Decision Foundation Model Needed for Symptom-to-Disease Classification? Fine-Tuning Clef-Flash Against TF-IDF Baselines

    Oct 10, 2026S. M. Mahbub Uddin AhmedMedical DiagnosisClinical Decision-Making

  9. FlowCF: Sparse Counterfactual Explanations for Mixed-Type Tabular Data using Flow Matching

    Oct 6, 2026Emmanouil Panagiotou, Eirini NtoutsiFlow MatchingExplainable Artificial Intelligence

  10. DASH: Fast, Valid Counterfactuals for Deep Networks via Batched Directional Search

    Oct 3, 2026Shraman Pal, Gabriel Medeiros, Clayton Escouper das Chagas +1Counterfactual Explanations

  11. How the Audit Rule Shapes Faithful Factor Explanations in LLMs

    Oct 1, 2026Taolin Zhang, Hanyu Wang, Jiuheng Wan +2Counterfactual ExplanationsFaithfulness of Language Model Explanations

  12. Towards Fast and Disentangled Counterfactuals for Visual Foundation Models

    Oct 1, 2026Sidney Bender, Benedikt Kunz, Ahmed Zeid +3Disentangled Representation LearningCounterfactual Explanations

  13. Where Privacy Belongs: Placement Diagnosis and Certified Selection for Private Counterfactual Explanations on Graphs

    Sep 29, 2026Yuxiang Yao, Zijun ZhaoCounterfactual ExplanationsGNN Explainability

  14. RewardExplainer: Learning Reward Model Explanations from Counterfactual Preference Feedback

    Sep 27, 2026Jingyi He, Nier Wu, Shuang Liu +3Reward ModelingCounterfactual Explanations

  15. Robust to Which Model Change? A Unified Evaluation of Robust Counterfactual Explanations

    Sep 25, 2026Marcin Kostrzewa, Maciej ZiębaCounterfactual EvaluationCounterfactual Explanations

  16. Peer-Grounded Counterfactual Path Planning for Chronic Health Management

    Sep 25, 2026Saman Khamesian, Hassan GhasemzadehHealthcareCounterfactual Explanations

  17. FCA-Guided Counterfactual Explanations for Multi-Modal Breast Cancer Diagnosis: A Framework Achieving Perfect Validity with Emergent Sparsity

    Sep 17, 2026Abdullahi Isa, Souley Boukari, Muhammad AliyuBreast CancerCounterfactual Explanations

  18. FCx: An algorithm for finding Feasible Counterfactual Explanations

    Sep 16, 2026Kleopatra Markou, Vana Kalogeraki, Dimitrios GunopulosCounterfactual Explanations

  19. An Empirical Study of Counterfactual Self-Explanations in LLMs

    Sep 15, 2026Giannis Kalyvas, Giorgos Filandrianos, Orfeas Menis Mastromichalakis +2Counterfactual ExplanationsFaithfulness of Language Model Explanations

  20. MedDiME: Efficient Latent Diffusion with Adaptive Masking for Medical Counterfactual Generation

    Sep 14, 2026Yan Zeng, Changlu Guo, Anders Nymark Christensen +2Counterfactual ExplanationsLatent Diffusion Models

  21. Diversified and Perceptible Counterfactual Examples Leveraging Expert Knowledge

    Sep 14, 2026Akram Bensalem, Fahima Djelil, Marie-Jeanne Lesot +1Explainable Artificial IntelligenceCounterfactual Explanations

  22. Explanations-Driven Active Feature Acquisition for Algorithmic Recourse

    Sep 10, 2026Vinura Galwaduge, Jagath SamarabanduCounterfactual ExplanationsCost-Aware Inference

  23. From Explanations to Interventions: Execution-Guided Counterfactual Synthesis in Temporal Graphs

    Sep 10, 2026Minwoo Yu, Young-guk HaCounterfactual ExplanationsCausal Counterfactual Generation

  24. CARRE: Counterfactual Action Retrieval and Reason Evaluation for Explainable Churn Prescription

    Sep 9, 2026Minjoo Kim, Sangjin Park, Seung Hwan ChoCounterfactual Explanations

  25. AVCG: A Generalized Variational Framework for Counterfactual Generation under Hypothesis Distributions

    Sep 7, 2026Jamie Duell, Alejandro Jimenez Rodriguez, Mahault AlbarracinCounterfactual ExplanationsCausal Counterfactual Generation

  26. A Comparative Study of Counterfactual Explainers for Graph Neural Networks Enabling Multiple Types of Graph Edit

    Sep 4, 2026Maria Myrto Villia, Filippos Gouidis, Theodore Patkos +1Counterfactual ExplanationsGraph Counterfactual Explanations