Environments with randomized dynamics are widely used to ask whether world models need explicit context inference. However, randomization can leave little predictive information for a context encoder to add, because distinct latent parameters may produce similar transitions at visited states, or those states may already reveal the active context. We formalize the remaining one-step information as predictive headroom and compare kernels under fixed and visited state--action distributions to distinguish changes in query coverage from changes in context weights. We analyze discrete and continuous environments and find low headroom both when kernels differ little and when visitation reduces an otherwise large discrepancy. At the same time, resetting state components increases headroom, showing that context evidence accumulates in state. We propose reporting this headroom alongside the randomized parameters, so that gains from explicit context inference can be interpreted relative to the information missing from the current state and action.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Dynamics variation and predictive headroom across perturbation strengths. (a,b) Wind and Resistance mechanisms. (c–e) The structural reference Istruct and estimated visited headroom Iemp differ substantially on Wind and Attractor but remain close on Resistance. Attractor’s structural curve uses the interior Gaussian reference. Shading shows bootstrap intervals.
Setting
Fixed
Matched
Visited
Istruct
Imatch
Iemp
Wind ( vmax=1 )
0.871
0.620
0.077±0.002
Resistance ( ϵmax=0.9 )
0.062
0.059
0.055±0.001
Attractor ( k=0.3 )
1.006
1.006
0.109±0.002
Table 1: Comparisons at representative settings. Fixed and matched columns retain prior context weights, while visited headroom uses fitted visitation-dependent weights. Attractor’s identical prior references use its query-invariant interior kernel. Uncertainties are the larger one-sided deviations from the 95% bootstrap intervals.
Reset
Wind
Attractor
None
0.078±0.002
0.112±0.002
Full, every 10 steps
0.411±0.006(+430%)
0.473±0.004(+324%)
Full, every 2 steps
0.723±0.017(+833%)
—
Position only, every 10 steps
—
0.143±0.003(+28%)
Table 2: State resets increase predictive headroom without changing episode context. Full resets resample position and direction in Wind. In Attractor they resample position and zero velocity. Changes in parentheses use each intervention dataset’s own no-reset baseline, collected separately from the sweep datasets.
Appendix figures & tables1 asset
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Figure 2: Point-Mass-Attractor force fields. The first four panels show the context-dependent force −k(p−θi) for each kernel Tθi . The final panel shows the prior-averaged force −kp .
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States · University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States · Morgan Stanley, New York, NY, United States