Interpreting Supervised Pairwise Graph Representations: Local Evidence, Confounding, and Provable Post-hoc Correction
Organizations: HSE University, Moscow, Russia · Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, Haifa 3200003, Israel · Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia · Ufa University of Science and Technology, Ufa, Russia
Abstract
Supervised pairwise graph representations convert pairwise predictive relations into sample-specific graphs, but graph-level accuracy does not by itself show that higher-order topology carries the signal. In a controlled Transformer error-detection task, supervised pairwise graphs outperform attention-as-adjacency (ROC-AUC versus ; the comparable no-confidence pair is versus ), but their apparent advantage over model confidence disappears after controlling for sequence length, which is almost perfectly recoverable from the pooled hidden state (). On published HCP Emotion ensemble graphs, signed node aggregation already acts as an ensemble of supervised pairwise predictions. Edge magnitude alone is near chance; topology-aware augmentations change ROC-AUC by at most , with only sign-separated degree showing small positive changes across all tested graph sizes, while a validation-tuned three-layer GCN provides no measurable improvement over the signed node-summary baseline. A Fisher post-hoc corrector satisfies its distribution-agnostic guarantees across the evaluated feature representations and remains stable under reduced labelled budgets; in a near-error-free fMRI calibration regime the bound correctly becomes statistically uninformative. A separate cross-attention analysis identifies a redundant reversal circuit and downstream EOS-timing and copy failures. Higher-order topology should therefore be credited only after local supervised evidence and recoverable nuisance variables have been excluded.
Figures & tables
| searched | searched | chosen | chosen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 8,12,16 | 8,12 | 8 | 8 |
| 50 | 12,16,24,32 | 8,16 | 12 | 8 |
| 100 | 16,24,32,48 | 8,16,24 | 48 | 16 |
| 200 | 24,32,48 | 8,16,24 | 32 | 16 |
| Method | Confidence | ROC-AUC |
|---|---|---|
| Softmax confidence | — | 0.799 |
| LogReg on raw hidden states | No | 0.686 |
| LogReg on flat graph features | No | 0.699 |
| LogReg on graph features + confidence | Yes | 0.841 |
| GNN on raw-attention graphs | No | 0.559 |
| No-confidence synolitic GNN | No | 0.687 |
| Model / representation | Readout | Confidence | ROC-AUC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LogReg on flattened graph features | Flatten | No | 0.699 |
| LogReg on mean/max-pooled graph features | Mean/max pooling | No | 0.634 |
| No-confidence synolitic GNN | Flatten | No | 0.687 |
| Synolitic GNN ensemble | Flatten | Yes | 0.839 |
| Mean-pool GNN | Mean pooling | Yes | 0.834 |
| LogReg on graph features + confidence | Flatten | Yes | 0.841 |
| Statistic | Correct | Error | Difference | -value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean strength | 4.376 | 4.131 | +0.246 | |
| Max strength | 30.14 | 25.97 | +4.17 | |
| Mean closeness | 0.242 | 0.199 | +0.043 | |
| Mean betweenness | 0.0103 | 0.0084 | +0.0019 | |
| Mean edge weight | 0.778 | 0.762 | +0.016 | |
| Number of decisive edges | 168.8 | 105.3 | +63.4 |
| Feature | Test ROC-AUC |
|---|---|
| value (raw hidden-state coordinate) | 0.714 |
| degree | 0.670 |
| strength | 0.674 |
| closeness | 0.649 |
| betweenness | 0.629 |
| all five features (flat) | 0.696 |
| Predictor | Test ROC-AUC |
|---|---|
| Length only, LogReg | 0.628 |
| Softmax confidence | 0.799 |
| Confidence + length, LogReg | 0.840 |
| Synolitic GNN ensemble | 0.839 |
| Paradigm | Duration | No. blocks | After cropping |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emotion | 0.941 | 0.500 | 0.500 |
| Social | 0.774 | 0.528 | 0.500 |
| Motor | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 |
| Language | 0.848 | 1.000 | 1.000 (excluded) |
| Added features | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude centralities, dense | |||
| Magnitude centralities, top 20% | |||
| Magnitude centralities, top 10% | |||
| Sign-aware centralities | |||
| Sign-separated degree |
| Feature | Accept bound | Accept empirical | Reject bound | Reject empirical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNN score | 0.650 | 0.704 | 0.722 | 0.821 |
| Confidence | 0.512 | 0.559 | 0.722 | 0.826 |
| Raw (Fisher) | 0.350 | 0.436 | 0.692 | 0.792 |
| Graph topology (Fisher) | 0.279 | 0.332 | 0.692 | 0.792 |
| Graph summary (Fisher) | 0.151 | 0.269 | 0.692 | 0.832 |
Graph Representation Learning
Graph representation learning develops methods for encoding nodes, edges, and whole graphs for prediction, comparison, and transfer.
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