cs.LGOct 23, 2026

Interpreting Supervised Pairwise Graph Representations: Local Evidence, Confounding, and Provable Post-hoc Correction

Authors: Ilya Brekin, Ariela Moldavskaya, Elina Sidorova, Ural Valeev

Organizations: HSE University, Moscow, Russia · Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, Haifa 3200003, Israel · Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia · Ufa University of Science and Technology, Ufa, Russia

Abstract

Supervised pairwise graph representations convert pairwise predictive relations into sample-specific graphs, but graph-level accuracy does not by itself show that higher-order topology carries the signal. In a controlled Transformer error-detection task, supervised pairwise graphs outperform attention-as-adjacency (ROC-AUC 0.8390.839 versus 0.5590.559; the comparable no-confidence pair is 0.6870.687 versus 0.5590.559), but their apparent advantage over model confidence disappears after controlling for sequence length, which is almost perfectly recoverable from the pooled hidden state (R2=0.9995R^2=0.9995). On published HCP Emotion ensemble graphs, signed node aggregation already acts as an ensemble of supervised pairwise predictions. Edge magnitude alone is near chance; topology-aware augmentations change ROC-AUC by at most 0.0040.004, with only sign-separated degree showing small positive changes across all tested graph sizes, while a validation-tuned three-layer GCN provides no measurable improvement over the signed node-summary baseline. A Fisher post-hoc corrector satisfies its distribution-agnostic guarantees across the evaluated feature representations and remains stable under reduced labelled budgets; in a near-error-free fMRI calibration regime the bound correctly becomes statistically uninformative. A separate cross-attention analysis identifies a redundant reversal circuit and downstream EOS-timing and copy failures. Higher-order topology should therefore be credited only after local supervised evidence and recoverable nuisance variables have been excluded.

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