Towards a Unified Framework of Optimal Input-Side Dimensional Configuration for Deep CTR Prediction

Click-Through Rate prediction, a core task in recommendation and advertising systems, relies on modeling interactions among sparse categorical features. Explicit cross networks are a central paradigm for CTR prediction, and recent progress has largely come from increasing the interaction capacity of a single predictor through deeper cross networks and more expressive cross operators. We revisit whether continually increasing interaction capacity remains the most effective way to improve predictive performance, and find that its benefits quickly exhibit diminishing returns even as capacity continues to grow. This motivates a complementary scaling direction that we call estimator scaling, where additional resources are used to incorporate multiple related estimators rather than only enlarging a single predictor. Through theoretical analysis, we show that the gains from estimator scaling are governed by the amount of non-shared predictive variation available across estimators. However, exploiting this variation naively can be expensive: independently trained models provide substantial estimator diversity but require deployment cost to grow with ensemble size. This motivates a parameter-efficient realization of estimator scaling that can incorporate diversity from multiple estimator sources without maintaining multiple full models. Building on this view, we introduce RECursive Averaged Predictor (RECAP), a parameter-efficient recursive CTR model that operationalizes estimator scaling at three levels: distillation across independently trained models, exponential moving averaging over training trajectories, and aggregation over inference-time routes within a weight-shared recursive backbone. Experiments across multiple benchmarks establish new state-of-the-art predictive performance on standard benchmarks, while placing the RECAP on a favorable performance-parameter Pareto frontier.

Scaling test-time compute has proven highly effective for language models, yet this opportunity remains largely unexplored for industrial Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. CTR models suffer from a fundamental asymmetry: feature combinations well-represented in training yield confident predictions, while sparsely observed ones produce unreliable outputs. Existing training-phase solutions such as adaptive gating learn a fixed selection function subject to the same sparsity, offering no per-instance recourse at deployment.We propose UTTSI (Uncertainty-Triggered Test-Time Selective Inference), a training-free model-agnostic framework that scales inference depth proportionally to per-instance uncertainty. A dual-signal estimator combining model logit confidence with a data-level frequency prior distinguishes epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric ambiguity. Every instance undergoes adaptive feature filtering to remove unreliable embeddings; uncertain instances additionally receive stochastic feature-path explorations whose predictions are aggregated via consistency-weighted ensembling. Confident instances bypass exploration entirely, keeping average overhead at approximately $2.8\times$ base model cost with worst-case latency unchanged.Experiments on four datasets with three backbone architectures demonstrate consistent, statistically significant gains over all training-phase baselines. A seven-day online A/B test further confirms a 5.3% relative CTR gain ($p < 0.01$), establishing selective test-time compute allocation as a practical complement to training-phase advances for CTR prediction.

Generative pre-training via discrete diffusion provides dense reconstruction supervision across all feature fields simultaneously, mitigating representation collapse from data sparsity in CTR prediction. However, all existing generative CTR methods share a fundamental limitation: the reconstruction objective assigns equal training weight to every feature field, ignoring the profound heterogeneity of reconstruction difficulty across high-cardinality ID fields, sparse categorical attributes, numerical values, and behavioral sequences. This causes easy fields to dominate training gradients while the hardest but most informative fields remain chronically underfit, a problem we term the generative difficulty imbalance.We propose HeteGenCTR, which resolves this imbalance through per-field learnable difficulty parameters jointly trained with the denoising network. This unified signal drives two coordinated components without additional hyperparameters: a self-balancing loss that automatically reallocates gradient budget toward harder fields with a provably stable equilibrium, and a difficulty-guided attention mechanism that suppresses the influence of already-converged easy fields while amplifying cross-field information flow toward hard fields. Both components share the same learned signal and remain mutually consistent throughout training. Experiments on five CTR benchmarks and a seven-day online A/B test demonstrate consistent, statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, with disproportionate gains for cold-start and long-tail users.