Bayesian Evidence Accumulation for Graph-Based Learning in Dynamic Data-Driven Applications Systems

On evolving graphs, node classifiers must satisfy two key requirements: inductive generalization to newly arriving nodes under distribution shift and calibrated uncertainty for safety-sensitive applications. Standard graph neural networks (GNNs) are typically trained once and address neither requirement. We adapt the Bayesian last-layer (BLL) model by placing random last-layer parameters on top of a deterministic GNN encoder for uncertainty quantification. The categorical softmax likelihood required for classification breaks Gaussian conjugacy, so neither the training posterior nor the test-time streaming update has a closed-form solution. To address both challenges, we introduce a variational Bayesian last-layer (VBLL) objective that jointly trains the encoder and an approximate last-layer posterior by maximizing an evidence lower bound with a Monte Carlo expected log-likelihood. At test time, we freeze the encoder and apply an online Laplace update to the last-layer posterior. This update corresponds to a power-prior Bayesian model with exponential forgetting and a Kullback-Leibler anchor to the training posterior. Across five node-classification benchmarks under distribution shift, online GVBLL is the only method to achieve the best accuracy and negative log-likelihood on every dataset. It improves accuracy by up to 17 percentage points on Cora and 14 percentage points on ogbn-arxiv over the strongest non-GVBLL baseline, while remaining competitive in calibration with MC Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Temperature Scaling, and Gaussian-process classifiers.

Activities in numerous evolving systems can be represented as dynamic graphs in snapshot form at different time intervals, i.e., discrete-time dynamic graphs (DTDGs). Existing methods show impressive advances in capturing historical temporal evolution patterns in DTDGs, but they focus on addressing an offline learning setting, where models are trained using historical snapshots once and then evaluated to all subsequent graph snapshots without further updating. This fails to capture 1) the nature of evolving complexities across graph snapshots and 2) the distribution shift in the testing graph snapshots. To address these problems, we propose PromptDyG, a novel framework that leverages unsupervised test-time Prompt adaptation for Dynamic Graph learning under a live-update online setting. The key insight is that an expressive dynamic graph prompt can be learned on a frozen backbone via minimization of feature-wise, label-free entropy to efficiently and continuously model the evolving patterns. We show theoretically that this unsupervised prompt adaptation can guarantee a larger similarity margin between positive and negative pairs, facilitating more accurate dynamic predictions. It is further confirmed by our extensive empirical results on six benchmark datasets that show consistent and significant improvements of PromptDyG over state-of-the-art baselines.

We introduce the Geometric Evolution Graph Convolutional Network (GEGCN), a novel framework that enhances graph representation learning through explicit modeling of geometric evolution on graph structures. Specifically, GEGCN leverages a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to capture the dynamic structural sequence generated by discrete Ricci flow, and infuses the learned dynamic representations into a graph convolutional network. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GEGCN achieves excellent performance on classification tasks across various benchmark datasets, including homophilic/heterophilic graphs, filtered graphs, and large-scale graphs.