Displacement Moments and Path-Terminal Separation in Brownian Interpolant Sampling

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

We study stochastic density control between Gaussian-mixture endpoint distributions under Brownian prior dynamics. Since the direct Schrödinger bridge between Gaussian mixtures is generally not available in closed form, we introduce a lifted path-space construction in which each trajectory is augmented with a source--target component label. Consequently, the problem decomposes into Gaussian component-to-component Schrödinger bridges with explicit marginal, drift, and cost formulas, while the mixture-level assignment reduces to a finite-dimensional entropic coupling problem with a Sinkhorn scaling form. We then analyze the projection obtained by discarding or forgetting the label. By construction, the projected law satisfies the original Gaussian-mixture endpoint constraints, but its relative entropy generally differs from the lifted relative entropy by a nonnegative conditional label-information gap. This gap reveals a path-space obstruction: the lifted optimizer cannot, in general, be identified with the direct unlabeled Schrödinger bridge after projection. We also derive the posterior-averaged Markov drift associated with the projected marginal flow, prove a kinetic-energy upper bound, and identify a common path-potential condition under which the projection gap vanishes. Several numerical illustrations showing density and shape control are recorded for a self-contained exposition.

For a fixed flow-based generative model under a small inference budget, sample quality can depend strongly on where the sampler spends its few function evaluations. Flow matching and Schrödinger bridges define probability paths, yet their inference grids are usually heuristic or inherited from one-endpoint diffusion. We derive a conditional-marginal entropy-rate objective for bridge-aware discretization, separating endpoint-conditioned bridge geometry from marginal flow evolution, and use it to build a training-free entropic inference-time scheduler from first principles. For Gaussian Brownian bridges this rate is closed-form and U-shaped, motivating boundary-heavy nonuniform grids. On trained two-dimensional bridge/flow models, the estimated profile recovers the predicted shape and improves 10-step ODE-Heun MMD over linear by 18.1%, with a paired 22.7% SDE-Heun improvement in the same low-NFE sweep. On EDM/CIFAR-10, the entropic time-discretization gives the best tested five-step FID (186.3 \pm 4.0 versus 200.5 \pm 2.9 for linear and 238.0 \pm 5.3 for cosine). On AlphaFlow protein generation, entropic conditional-marginal (cond-marg) scheduling shows advantage in low-NFE regimes on both CAMEO22 and ATLAS benchmarks. These results support entropy-rate scheduling as a practical low-budget allocation signal for high-dimensional bridge and flow samplers.