Segmentation Confidence for Arbitrary CNNs

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for medical image segmentation, where automated contours feed downstream quantification and clinical decision support. Many strong uncertainty methods require repeated inference, while efficient single-forward-pass alternatives often provide weaker failure ranking or rely on restrictive feature-space assumptions. We present $\textbf{SegWithU}$, a post-hoc framework that augments a frozen pretrained segmentation backbone with a lightweight uncertainty head. SegWithU taps intermediate backbone features and models uncertainty as perturbation energy in a compact probe space using rank-1 posterior probes. It produces two voxel-wise uncertainty maps: a calibration-oriented map for probability tempering and a ranking-oriented map for error detection and selective prediction. Across ACDC, BraTS2024, and LiTS, SegWithU is the strongest and most consistent single-forward-pass baseline, achieving AUROC/AURC of $0.9838/2.4885$, $0.9946/0.2660$, and $0.9925/0.8193$, respectively, while preserving segmentation quality. These results suggest that perturbation-based uncertainty modeling is an effective and practical route to reliability-aware medical segmentation. Source code is available at https://github.com/ProjectNeura/SegWithU.

In medical image segmentation, uncertainty estimates are often reported but rarely used to guide decisions. We study the missing step: how uncertainty maps are converted into actionable policies such as accepting, flagging, or deferring predictions. We formulate segmentation as a two-stage pipeline, estimation followed by decision, and show that optimizing uncertainty alone fails to capture most of the achievable safety gains. Using retinal vessel segmentation benchmarks (DRIVE, STARE, CHASE_DB1), we evaluate two uncertainty sources (Monte Carlo Dropout and Test-Time Augmentation) combined with three deferral strategies, and introduce a simple confidence-aware deferral rule that prioritizes uncertain and low-confidence predictions. Our results show that the best method and policy combination removes up to 80 percent of segmentation errors at only 25 percent pixel deferral, while achieving strong cross-dataset robustness. We further show that calibration improvements do not translate to better decision quality, highlighting a disconnect between standard uncertainty metrics and real-world utility. These findings suggest that uncertainty should be evaluated based on the decisions it enables, rather than in isolation.

Medical segmentation uncertainty is often evaluated with calibration error or pixel-level error-detection scores, but these metrics do not show whether uncertainty improves downstream review decisions. We propose a decision-aware evaluation protocol that separates uncertainty estimation from deferral policy and evaluates their combination under fixed review budgets: which pixels, regions, or images should be accepted, and which should be reviewed. The protocol reports fixed-budget error reduction, risk-coverage behaviour, region-level review proxies, structural failure modes, probability-derived baselines, and sensitivity to review assumptions. We instantiate it across retinal vessel, skin lesion, and polyp segmentation with multiple backbones and uncertainty estimators. Under matched inference budgets and canonical multi-layer MC Dropout, test-time augmentation (TTA) gives a stronger error-detection signal across matched MC--TTA comparisons, including architecture and dropout-placement checks. However, estimator rankings are not universal. For example, probability-derived scores remain competitive, deep ensembles can outperform TTA, learned deferral helps mainly when the base estimator is weak, and rankings can change with review unit, uncertainty target, correction assumptions, and cost model. Structural and second-observer analyses further show that boundary and thin-structure failures are partly tied to annotation ambiguity. These findings support evaluating uncertainty as an estimator-policy-review configuration, not as a standalone score map. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Uncertainity-in-Medical-Image-Segmentation/README.md