The Real Cost of Context: Predicting Compute Time and Energy Consumption in LLM Prefill and Decode Phases

The growing adoption of large language models (LLMs) has raised increasing concerns about the energy consumption and environmental impact of inference. This paper presents a systematic empirical study of decode-phase energy consumption across representative open-source LLMs employing Multi-Head Attention (MHA), Grouped Query Attention (GQA), and Grouped Query Attention with Sliding Window Attention (SWA) to characterize how attention architecture influences decode-phase energy consumption under varying inference workloads. We evaluate four models across different context lengths, batch sizes, and generation workloads while measuring GPU energy using NVIDIA hardware counters. We examine the effects of context length, attention mechanism, Key-Value (KV) cache growth, and batching on decode-phase energy consumption. Results show that attention mechanism is the primary factor governing how decode energy scales with context length. MHA models exhibit substantially steeper energy growth than GQA models, whereas GQA with SWA maintains nearly constant energy consumption. We further show that model size primarily determines absolute energy consumption, while batching reduces both energy per generated token and request latency by up to 87%. These findings provide practical guidance for selecting energy-efficient LLM architectures and inference configurations.

The energy consumption of Large Language Models (LLMs) is raising growing concerns due to their adverse effects on environmental stability and resource use. Yet, these energy costs remain largely opaque to users, especially when models are accessed through an API -- a black box in which all information depends on what providers choose to disclose. In this work, we investigate inference time measurements as a proxy to approximate the associated energy costs of API-based LLMs. We ground our approach by comparing our estimations with actual energy measurements from locally hosted equivalents. Our results show that time measurements allow us to infer GPU models for API-based LLMs, grounding our energy cost estimations. Our work aims to create means for understanding the associated energy costs of API-based LLMs, especially for end users.

The operational energy consumption of large language model (LLM) inference is becoming an increasingly important component of the environmental footprint of deployed AI systems. However, direct measurement of inference energy often requires hardware telemetry, power instrumentation, or infrastructure-specific monitoring, limiting its applicability in comparative studies, early-stage system design, and sustainability reporting. This report presents an analytically structured, empirically calibrated, GPU-level methodology for estimating LLM inference energy on NVIDIA H100-class accelerators without direct runtime measurement. The proposed estimator combines parameter-scaled transformer FLOP accounting, calibrated memory-traffic factors, and hardware-specific energy coefficients for FP16/BF16 tensor-core computation and high-bandwidth-memory movement. It explicitly separates prompt prefill from autoregressive decoding, enabling energy estimates for input tokens, output tokens, and complete inference requests. The methodology further decomposes total energy into compute, parameter-access, key-value-cache write, and attention-read components, allowing the scaling behavior with model size, context length, and generated-token count to be analyzed. The resulting estimates are not intended to replace physical power measurements; rather, they provide transparent, reproducible, and assumption-explicit approximations suitable for model comparison, green-coding analysis, and design-time evaluation of LLM inference workloads.