When can Optimally Trained Transformers Achieve Near-Lossless Token Prediction for non-Markovian Data?

Decoder-only transformers compute the conditional probability of the next token from a sequence of past observations. This paper derives, from first principles, inference architectures that solve the same prediction problem - and in doing so, recovers transformer-like layer operations as a consequence of optimal control theory. The framework is developed for two model classes: a nonlinear model of discrete-valued processes, directly motivated by the transformer, and a linear Gaussian model as a tractable baseline. For both model classes, the prediction objective is reformulated as an optimal control problem whose solution yields an explicit inference algorithm, the dual filter, with a layer structure that mirrors the layer structure of a decoder-only transformer. Numerical experiments provide a comparison of the optimal control to attention weights from a trained transformer. These experiments reveal that when the embedding dimension is insufficient, the transformer implicitly exploits non-Markovian structure.

In this paper, we develop a rigorous optimal control-theoretic approach to Transformer training that respects key structural constraints such as (i) realized-input-independence during execution, (ii) the ensemble control nature of the problem, and (iii) positional dependence. We model the Transformer architecture as a discrete-time controlled particle system with shared actions, exhibiting noise-free controlled McKean--Vlasov dynamics, and we show that lifting the dynamics to probability measures produces a fully-observed Markov decision process (MDP). Positional encodings are incorporated into the state space to preserve the sequence order under lifting. Using the dynamic programming principle, we establish the existence of globally optimal policies under mild assumptions of compactness. We further prove that closed-loop policies in the lifted problem is equivalent to an initial-distribution dependent open-loop policy, which are realized-input-independent and compatible with standard Transformer training. To train a Transformer, we propose a triply quantized training procedure for the lifted MDP by quantizing the state space, the space of probability measures, and the action space, and show that any optimal policy for the triply quantized model is near-optimal for the original training problem. Finally, we establish stability and empirical consistency properties of the lifted model by showing that the value function is continuous with respect to the perturbations of the initial empirical measures and convergence of policies as the data size increases. This approach provides a globally optimal and robust theoretical alternative to gradient-based training without requiring smoothness or convexity.

A transformer trained on sequences whose source parameters are drawn afresh each time can learn only what the sequences share: the source family and its prior. The Bayesian predictor that knows both, which we call informed Bayes, is the unique minimizer of the training loss and is computable from the family alone; we use it as a quantitative, falsifiable reference. Where earlier work compared transformers with Bayes on sources whose contexts can be learned independently, we build Markov sources with up to 64 symbols in which observations in one context inform prediction in another: product sources with known or hidden encodings, transition rows sharing an unknown base law and depth, and a mixture of three families. Our main result is that informed Bayes predicts, from the family and prior alone, how a trained transformer behaves in four tests that go beyond the learning curve: the loss that remains under a source outside the training family (predicted 2.237 bits, measured 2.309), the doubling of the extra loss when two independent components change rather than one (0.345 predicted, 0.350 measured), the benefit of other contexts when a token appears for the first time, and the depth at which copying an earlier continuation starts to pay. On the learning curves themselves, small transformers match informed Bayes when the shared structure is visible in the tokens, and hidden structure needs more layers and training, with gaps below 0.01 bits per token for the largest models. We explain why the imitation is possible and where it must fail: informed Bayes decomposes into sufficient statistics that attention selects and accumulates and an estimator, fixed by the prior, that the feed-forward network learns; training pays the complexity of informed Bayes under the architecture's prior, and finite-memory universal prediction bounds how closely a bounded network can reach it.