Bayesian Mixture Models

While modern large language models (LLMs) have been trained to reason through verbalized chains-of-thought, the generation cost grows substantially due to suboptimal paths to reach the final answer. Furthermore, as new insights are discovered while observing various input queries (e.g. through self-reflection), limited mechanisms exist for carrying forward these findings to be applied to subsequent problems. One can view the list of such strategies or behaviors as a growing cheatsheet, with elements retrieved from this memory module at inference-time. In this work, we consider structured cheatsheets, with learned clusters of behaviors. We introduce a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (HDP-GMM) over behavior embeddings, which shares components across domains while allowing domain-specific mixing weights, and uses the posterior predictive to retrieve relevant behaviors for a query; we call this a $\textit{Bayesian Cheatsheet}$. This mechanism allows for cheap adaptation in an online test-time training (TTT) setting, softly updating the mixture's sufficient statistics following each sample and enabling the creation of new components when the synthesized behaviors are sufficiently novel. We demonstrate that Bayesian Cheatsheet achieves clear performance gains relative to existing memory modules across reasoning benchmarks such as AIME'25, Omni-MATH, and PhysReason, even in the cold-start setting. We show that the Bayesian Cheatsheet is an adaptively reorganizing memory module, as behaviors can be re-assigned to components through a single step of collapsed Gibbs sampling. Our findings highlight the value of Bayesian-inspired memory modules for effective test-time adaptation and the role of structure in metacognitive reasoning.

We determine the minimax cumulative log-loss regret of a finite-alphabet, exogenously driven source with genuinely infinite input memory: independent Rademacher inputs $(U_t)$ are observed sequentially and the next binary mark has logit $\sum_{j\ge1}θ_jU_{t+1-j}$, the unknown coefficients obeying a summable envelope $|θ_j|\le r_j$, $\sum_jr_j\le B$. At horizon $T$, lag $j$ can move the logit by at most $r_j$ and is exercised in only $n_{T,j}=(T-j+1)_+$ rounds, and the two limitations combine into the sum $Γ_T(r)=\sum_{j\le T}\log(1+n_{T,j}r_j^{2})$. One coordinate-localised Bayesian mixture achieves $R_T(r)\le CΓ_T(r)$ for \emph{every} summable envelope with $C$ universal. Our main result is a matching nonasymptotic converse for the canonical exponential and polynomial envelopes; its new ingredients are a modular finite-sample information bound for logistic experiments with an exogenous random design, and a conditioning estimate for the overlapping Toeplitz lag matrix obtained by exhibiting each off-diagonal Gram sum as a sum of independent Rademacher variables indexed by the edges of a forest, needing neither local asymptotic normality nor any spectral theorem for random Toeplitz matrices. So $Γ_T(r)$ is the minimax regret scale here, giving $Θ(α^{-1}\log^{2}T)$ for $r_j=Ae^{-αj}$ and $Θ(T^{1/(2s)})$ for $r_j=Aj^{-s}$, $s>1$ --- the latter without the extra $(\log T)^{1-1/(2s)}$ factor any window-truncation analysis pays. We also show memory decay cannot determine regret, and that a profile-scaled online Newton predictor attains $O_B(Γ_T(r))$ in polynomial time per round.

Large scale Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) learner such as Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) can handle datasets with large class number and large training size at fractional cost. Like its predecessor, SVI rely on the assumption of conjugate variational posterior to approximate the true posterior. A more challenging problem is to consider large scale learning on non-conjugate posterior. Recent works in this direction are mostly associated with using Monte Carlo methods for approximating the learner. However, these works are usually demonstrated on non-BNP related task and less complex models such as logistic regression, due to higher computational complexity. In order to overcome the issue faced by SVI, we develop a novel approach based on the recently proposed constant stepsize stochastic gradient ascent to allow large scale learning on non-conjugate posterior. Unlike SVI, our new learner does not require closed- form expression for the variational posterior expectatations. Our only requirement is that the variational posterior is differentiable. In order to ensure convergence in stochastic settings, SVI rely on decaying step-sizes to slow its learning. Inspired by SVI and Adam, we propose the novel use of adaptive stepsizes in our method to significantly improve its learning. We show that our proposed methods is compatible with ResNet features when applied to large class number datasets such as MIT67 and SUN397. Finally, we compare our proposed learner with several recent works such as deep clustering algorithms and showed we were able to produce on-par or outperform the state-of-the-art methods in terms of clustering measures.

We introduce the distributional determinantal point process (dDPP) as a novel repulsive point process whose atoms are probability distributions rather than points in a real space. The dDPP is constructed via an L-ensemble with a sliced Wasserstein (SW) kernel between distributions. We show its validity as a well-defined point process. In the discrete setting, we derive concentration results for plug-in estimators of the L-ensemble, the correlation kernel, and their determinants given i.i.d. samples from the distributional atoms. Leveraging this framework, we propose a distribution-valued random partition model by way of a repulsive generalized Bayesian mixture model. The model places a dDPP prior over the atoms of the mixing measure and defines a generalized likelihood based on SW distance. To summarize posterior inference, we develop a decision-theoretic approach to report a point estimate of the mixing measure as a Bayes rule under a hierarchical optimal transport utility function. The latter is a natural choice given that the mixing measure is itself a distribution over distributions. We use the proposed framework for inference with single-cell gene expression data and human epilepsy data, producing interpretable and well-separated clusters that reflect meaningful structure in the data.

On-the-fly category discovery requires deciding for each incoming test sample whether to assign it to an existing category or spawn a new one. Existing methods typically implement this decision through matching-based heuristics, such as radius- or hash-based rules. While effective in practice, these methods usually treat category birth implicitly as a fallback when no existing category matches confidently, rather than as an explicit alternative supported by its own statistical evidence. To address this, we propose DP-BOA, a posterior-predictive decision framework based on an online Dirichlet-process Gaussian mixture model with a Normal-Inverse-Wishart prior. During training, we use labeled data to calibrate a shared NIW prior over category Gaussians and warm-start the known-category posteriors. At test time, for each incoming sample, DP-BOA compares the posterior predictive evidence for assignment to existing categories against the evidence for spawning a new category induced by the DP prior, and then updates category statistics online after the decision. The method captures anisotropic category geometry and naturally adapts decision confidence as evidence accumulates. Across standard OCD benchmarks, DP-BOA consistently outperforms strong baselines and delivers particularly strong novel-class discovery performance while maintaining competitive known-class accuracy.

3D Gaussian Splatting represents scenes as finite mixtures of anisotropic Gaussians whose number of components $K$ is set by heuristic density control or user caps. Variational Bayes Gaussian Splatting (VBGS) recast splat fitting as conjugate variational inference, but $K$ remains fixed. We replace the finite symmetric Dirichlet over mixture weights with a truncated stick-breaking Dirichlet-process prior -- and, as a theory-backed alternative, a sparse overfitted finite Dirichlet -- so that the number of occupied components adapts to the data while every update remains a closed-form coordinate-ascent step; a natural-gradient stochastic variant makes the per-step cost independent of the number of points. We give an exact monotonicity guarantee, a rigorous truncation-error bound correcting an anti-conservative large-$α$ approximation in common use, and an honest account of what the fitted number of components estimates. Empirically: (i) the effective complexity $\hat{K}$ adapts to scene complexity and recovers the true $K$ within $\pm 1$ on well-separated synthetic data with regime-appropriate concentration; (ii) a deconfounded comparison shows the DP prior's contribution is complexity selection, not per-component efficiency -- converged DP fits exceed single-pass fixed-$K$ VBGS by +2.7 dB at matched budgets yet tie an equally converged fixed-$K$ baseline, and on 3D scenes DP-Splat matches or exceeds VBGS's held-out color prediction with 5.9-7.6x fewer components; (iii) the posterior-predictive color variance is well calibrated on model-matched synthetic data; and (iv) the ordering suggested by exact-posterior asymptotics reverses under mean-field coordinate ascent: the DP prior resists over-splitting while the sparse finite mixture saturates its truncation, a gap between variational practice and posterior asymptotics documented across three orders of magnitude in $N$.

Two-tower retrievers compress each user into a single embedding, limiting their ability to serve diverse interests. Multi-interest models give each user several heads scored by a maximum inner product, but their hard-routing training under-utilizes heads (routing collapse) and gives no per-user estimate of how much each interest matters for serving. We present \textbf{BACH} (\emph{Bayesian Admixture of Contrastive Heads}), which casts multi-interest two-tower retrieval as a per-user mixture over the heads, fit by variational inference. The soft mixture trains every head (mitigating collapse), produces a per-user weighting of the interests that is reused at serving, and admits a shared global-codebook variant with precomputable retrieval. On three large-scale benchmarks, MovieLens-20M, Taobao, and Netflix, BACH improves top-of-ranking retrieval over hard-routing multi-interest and single-vector baselines at every head count; we further find that scoring every candidate by its best head, consistent with serving, outperforms the usual target-routed training, and that BACH improves further still.

The growing demand for privacy-preserving data sharing has positioned synthetic data generation as a critical component of responsible AI workflows. Despite notable advances in generative modeling, existing solutions often lack integration of adaptive generation strategies, multi-metric evaluation, and accessible end-to-end generators within a unified web-based toolkit. In this work, we introduce TDGT (Tabular Data Generation Toolkit), a web-based toolkit for synthetic tabular data generation and fidelity assessment. TDGT introduces the Adaptive Bayesian Mixture Synthesizer (ABMS), a novel algorithm that autonomously determines the optimal number of mixture components through iterative cluster quality optimization, eliminating the need for manual hyperparameter configuration. Building upon ABMS, we further propose VAE-ABMS, a hybrid architecture that couples Variational Autoencoder-based latent space learning with adaptive Bayesian mixture synthesis, enabling high-fidelity generation of complex, nonlinear tabular distributions. For large-scale scenarios, TDGT provides a GPU-accelerated variant of ABMS leveraging CUDA-based k-means clustering and Gaussian mixture fitting. Synthetic data fidelity is assessed through eleven statistical fidelity metrics spanning distributional divergence, structural correlation, and sample-level similarity, complemented by privacy risk indicators including k-anonymity scoring and disclosure rate estimation. The web-based toolkit supports a real-time streaming interface with interactive Plotly-based visualizations. TDGT is assessed across datasets from healthcare, socioeconomic modeling, and cybersecurity domains, demonstrating consistent generation fidelity and statistical coherence across heterogeneous feature types and data scales.

Motivated by the privacy, sensitivity and sharing limitations of health data, we present a comprehensive pipeline for inference of Bayesian mixture models within a federated learning setting, i.e. when data cannot be fully shared or pooled across compute nodes. We adopt a Consensus Monte Carlo (CMC) approach, in which an MCMC algorithm is run independently within each data silo to estimate local posterior distributions, which are then aggregated to approximate the posterior over the full data. The variational CMC approach of Rabinovich, Angelino and Jordan (2015) [1] frames the aggregation step as a variational inference problem, but their application to mixtures assumes the number of clusters and key mixture parameters to be known. Our main methodological contributions are: (i) an extension of variational CMC to over-fitted Bayesian mixture models that infer the number of clusters and all model parameters, without requiring conjugacy; (ii) novel cluster-matching algorithms suitable for cross-silo settings in which not every cluster appears in each local dataset; (iii) a number of inference strategies for the aggregation step, matched to different federated learning constraints; and (iv) guidelines for choosing among these in practice. A comprehensive simulation study validates the framework and allows us to compare to state-of-the-art federated learning alternatives. Notably, we show that when the composition of local datasets reflects the underlying clustering structure in the data, our approach can recover small clusters with greater accuracy than standard MCMC applied to the pooled data. We illustrate the framework on large-scale electronic health record data, identifying multi-morbidity patterns in a British geriatric population.

In Bayesian mixture models and other exchangeable-component models, the posterior is invariant under permutation of component labels, creating m! equivalent modes-the label-switching problem. Standard MCMC methods either mix poorly across these modes or rely on post-hoc relabelling that cannot guarantee the sampler has converged. We propose Folded Transport MCMC (FolT-MCMC), which eliminates label switching before sampling by restricting the Markov chain to a fundamental domain-a sorted or reflected subspace containing exactly one representative from each symmetric mode. The proposal is a learned normalising flow whose density is symmetrised over the group orbits, ensuring correct targeting on the reduced space. We show that this construction preserves a computable convergence diagnostic based on the oscillation of the log-density ratio, and that the diagnostic becomes sharper on the fundamental domain whenever the original-space flow under-covers one or more symmetric modes. Experiments on Gaussian mixtures (d=2-20), label-switching targets (up to 24 equivalent modes), a standard Bayesian three-component mixture posterior, and real accelerometer data from a supertall building show improvement ratios of 2x to 145x, with the folded diagnostic stable across dimensions while the unfolded diagnostic collapses.

Bayesian finite mixture models can identify discrete risk clusters (low-risk vs. high-risk equipment), but face three critical bottlenecks: (1) insufficient degradation signals from coarse state discretization, (2) unstable cluster identification when data inherently supports fewer clusters than explored, and (3) computational infeasibility of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for production deployment (7+ hours per model). We propose a practical framework combining (1) 8-state global percentile discretization that amplifies degradation events, (2) 30-dimensional feature engineering integrating statistical trends (22 features), continuous health indicators, and text embeddings (PCA-compressed to 3 dimensions), (3) interpretable model selection rules enforcing minimum cluster share and separation alongside WAIC, and (4) Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) with full-rank covariance for stable, fast estimation. Applied to 280 industrial pump equipment with 104,703 inspection records, we demonstrate: (1) Random effect models (baseline) show ADVI and NUTS produce nearly identical estimates with 15$\times$ speedup, validating ADVI accuracy. (2) Finite mixture models identify optimal number of clusters with interpretability constraints. (3) NUTS exhibits severe convergence issues and label switching, while ADVI provides stable results in 84$\times$ less time. We contributed that (1) First demonstration that fine-grained state discretization (8-state) is essential for mixture model stability in survival analysis.(2) Comprehensive feature engineering strategy combining statistical, continuous, and semantic signals. (3) Practical interpretability rules preventing overfitting in automated model selection. (4) Empirical evidence that ADVI outperforms NUTS for finite mixture models in terms of convergence, stability, and computational efficiency.

Mixture-of-experts models provide a flexible framework for learning complex probabilistic input-output relationships by combining multiple expert models through an input-dependent gating mechanism. These models have become increasingly prominent in modern machine learning, yet their theoretical properties in the Bayesian framework remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we study Bayesian mixture-of-experts models, focusing on the ubiquitous softmax-based gating mechanism. Specifically, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution for three fundamental statistical tasks: density estimation, parameter estimation, and model selection. First, we establish posterior contraction rates for density estimation, both in the regimes with a fixed, known number of experts and with a random learnable number of experts. We then analyze parameter estimation and derive convergence guarantees based on tailored Voronoi-type losses, which account for the complex identifiability structure of mixture-of-experts models. Finally, we propose and analyze two complementary strategies for selecting the number of experts. Taken together, these results provide one of the first systematic theoretical analyses of Bayesian mixture-of-experts models with softmax gating, and yield several theory-grounded insights for practical model design.

This work proposes a two-stage physics-informed deep learning framework that combines neural-network-based sampling with statistical inference and constrained parameter refinement. In the first stage, a dual-network physics-informed architecture is used, where a main-network approximates the PDE solution and an auxiliary coefficient sub-network provides a relaxed continuous soft approximation of the true discontinuous coefficient field. A gradient-adaptive weighting strategy is incorporated to improve residual training and enhance sampling reliability near possible discontinuity regions. The sampled coefficient values are then analyzed using Bayesian learning for Gaussian mixture models and birth-death Markov chain model selection, which identify the number of coefficient regimes and provide candidate intervals for coefficient values and transition regions. In the second stage, the inverse problem is reformulated as a constrained physics-informed estimator, in which the coefficient is replaced by a form-consistent hard approximation explicitly represented as a piecewise-constant function over the spatiotemporal domain. Comprehensive numerical experiments on PDEs with jump-discontinuous coefficients demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves adaptability and accurate parameter identification with acceptable computational costs compared to existing methods. Applications to solution reconstruction further illustrate its practical potential. This work provides a generalizable computational approach for inverse problems governed by PDEs with discontinuous parameter structures, particularly in non-stationary and heterogeneous systems.