Structural Causal Model

Offline evaluation of language models from usage logs is biased when model choice is confounded: the same user-side factors that influence which model is used can also influence how its output is judged, so raw comparisons of logged scores mix self-selected populations rather than estimating a common quantity of interest. A small randomized experiment can break this bias by overriding model choice, but in practice such experiments are scarce and costly. We study a three-source design that combines a large confounded observational log (OBS) for scale, a small randomized experiment (EXP) for unconfounded scoring, and an offline simulator (SIM) that replays candidate models on cached contexts. Our main result is an identification theorem showing that the randomized experiment and the simulator are together enough to recover causal model values; the observational log enters only afterward, to reduce estimation error rather than to make the causal comparison valid. Six estimator families are evaluated in a controlled semi-synthetic validation and in two real-task cached benchmarks for summarization and coding. No family dominates every regime; relative performance depends on the amount of unbiased EXP supervision and on how closely the target reward aligns with OBS-derived structure.

Can Neural Assemblies -- groups of neurons that fire together and strengthen through co-activation -- learn the direction of causal influence between variables? While established as a computationally general substrate for classification, parsing, and planning, neural assemblies have not yet been shown to internalize causal directionality. We demonstrate that the inherent operations of neural assemblies -- projection, local plasticity control, and sparse winner selection -- are sufficient for directional learning. We introduce DIRECT (DIRectional Edge Coupling/Training), a mechanism that co-activates source and target assemblies under an adaptive gain schedule to internalize directed relations. Unlike backpropagation-based methods, DIRECT relies solely on local plasticity, making the resulting causal claims auditable at the mechanism level. Our findings are verified through a dual-readout validation strategy: (i) synaptic-strength asymmetry, measuring the emergent weight gap between forward and reverse links, and (ii) functional propagation overlap, quantifying the reliability of directional signal flow. Across multiple domains, the framework achieves perfect structural recovery under a supervised, known-structure setting. These results establish neural assemblies as an auditable bridge between biologically plausible dynamics and formal causal models, offering an "explainable by design" framework where causal claims are traceable to specific neural winners and synaptic asymmetries.

We provide a causal analysis of Binary Spiking Neural Networks (BSNNs) to explain their behavior. We formally define a BSNN and represent its spiking activity as a binary causal model. Thanks to this causal representation, we are able to explain the output of the network by leveraging logic-based methods. In particular, we show that we can successfully use a SAT as well as a SMT solver to compute abductive explanations from this binary causal model. To illustrate our approach, we trained the BSNN on the standard MNIST dataset and applied our SAT-based and SMT-based methods to finding abductive explanations of the network's classifications based on pixel-level features. We also compared the found explanations against SHAP, a popular method used in the area of explainable AI. We show that, unlike SHAP, our approach guarantees that a found explanation does not contain completely irrelevant features.

Physical activity (PA) is widely recognized as protective against mental distress, yet whether this benefit varies systematically across population subgroups remains poorly understood. Using pooled data from ten consecutive annual waves of the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2015-2024; n = 3,242,218), we investigate heterogeneity in the association between leisure-time PA and frequent mental distress (FMD, >=14 days/month) across age groups. Survey-weighted logistic regression reveals a striking age gradient: the adjusted odds ratio for PA ranges from 0.89 among young adults (18-24) to 0.50 among adults aged 55-64, with the protective association strengthening monotonically with age. Temporal analysis across all ten years shows that the young-adult PA effect has been eroding over the past decade, with the 18-24 OR reaching 1.01 (null) in both 2018 and 2024 -- paralleling the deepening youth mental health crisis. Causal Forest via Double Machine Learning independently identifies age as the dominant driver of treatment effect heterogeneity (feature importance = 0.39, 2.5x the next predictor). E-value sensitivity analysis, propensity score overlap checks, placebo tests, and imputation comparisons confirm the robustness of the findings. These results suggest that the well-documented exercise--mental health link may not generalize to the youngest adult population, whose distress appears increasingly driven by stressors that PA alone cannot mitigate.

Off-policy learning in constrained MDPs with large binary state spaces faces a fundamental tension: causal identification of transition dynamics requires structural assumptions, while sample-efficient policy learning requires state-space compression. We introduce PI-CMDP, a framework for CMDPs whose constraint dependencies form a layered DAG under a Lifecycle Ordering Assumption (LOA). We propose an Identify-Compress-Estimate pipeline: (i) Identify: LOA enables backdoor identification of causal edge weights for cross-layer pairs, with formal partial-identification bounds when LOA is violated; (ii) Compress: a Markov abstraction compresses state cardinality from 2^(WL) to (W+1)^L under layer-priority regularity and exchangeability; and (iii) Estimate: a physics-guided doubly-robust estimator remains unbiased and reduces the variance constant when the physics prior outperforms a learned model. We instantiate PI-CMDP on constraint repair in engineering simulation pipelines. On the TPS benchmark (4,206 episodes), PI-CMDP achieves 76.2% repair success rate with only 300 training episodes versus 70.8% for the strongest baseline (+5.4 pp), narrowing to +2.8 pp (83.4% vs. 80.6%) in the full-data regime, while substantially reducing cascade failure rates. All improvements are consistent across 5 independent seeds (paired t-test p < 0.02).

Multi-Behavior Recommendation (MBR) leverages multiple user interaction types (e.g., views, clicks, purchases) to enrich preference modeling and alleviate data sparsity issues in traditional single-behavior approaches. However, existing MBR methods face fundamental challenges: they lack principled frameworks to model complex confounding effects from user behavioral habits and item multi-behavior distributions, struggle with effective aggregation of heterogeneous auxiliary behaviors, and fail to align behavioral representations across semantic gaps while accounting for bias distortions. To address these limitations, we propose MCLMR, a novel model-agnostic causal learning framework that can be seamlessly integrated into various MBR architectures. MCLMR first constructs a causal graph to model confounding effects and performs interventions for unbiased preference estimation. Under this causal framework, it employs an Adaptive Aggregation module based on Mixture-of-Experts to dynamically fuse auxiliary behavior information and a Bias-aware Contrastive Learning module to align cross-behavior representations in a bias-aware manner. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that MCLMR achieves significant performance improvements across various baseline models, validating its effectiveness and generality. All data and code will be made publicly available. For anonymous review, our code is available at the following the link: https://github.com/gitrxh/MCLMR.

We study identifiability in continuous-time linear stationary stochastic differential equations with a known causal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we relax the assumption of a known diffusion matrix, thereby respecting the model's intrinsic scale invariance. Therefore, rather than recovering drift coefficients themselves, we introduce edge-sign identifiability: for a given causal structure, we ask whether the sign of a given drift entry is uniquely determined across all observational covariance matrices induced by parametrisations compatible with that structure. This leads to a trichotomy of edge-sign identifiability: identifiable, non-identifiable, and partially identifiable. This trichotomy introduces the new notion of partial identifiability to the literature, which we show is a genuine category in our setting. Under a notion of faithfulness, we derive criteria to identify membership of each category for general graphs. Applying our criteria to specific causal structures, both analogous to classical causal settings (e.g., instrumental variables) and novel cyclic settings, we determine their edge-sign identifiability and, in some cases, obtain explicit expressions for the sign of a target edge in terms of the observational covariance matrix.

To distinguish Markov equivalent graphs in causal discovery, it is necessary to restrict the structural causal model. Crucially, we need to be able to distinguish cause $X$ from effect $Y$ in bivariate models, that is, distinguish the two graphs $X \to Y$ and $Y \to X$. Location-scale noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect $Y$ is modeled based on the cause $X$ as $Y = f(X) + g(X)N$, form a flexible class of models that is general and identifiable in most cases. Estimating these models for arbitrary noise terms $N$, however, is challenging. Therefore, practical estimators are typically restricted to symmetric distributions, such as the normal distribution. As we showcase in this paper, when $N$ is a skewed random variable, which is likely in real-world domains, the reliability of these approaches decreases. To approach this limitation, we propose SkewD, a likelihood-based algorithm for bivariate causal discovery under LSNMs with skewed noise distributions. SkewD extends the usual normal-distribution framework to the skew-normal setting, enabling reliable inference under symmetric and skewed noise. For parameter estimation, we employ a combination of a heuristic search and an expectation conditional maximization algorithm. We evaluate SkewD on novel synthetically generated datasets with skewed noise as well as established benchmark datasets. Throughout our experiments, SkewD exhibits a strong performance and, in comparison to prior work, remains robust under high skewness.

Semi-supervised domain adaptation (SSDA) seeks to achieve accurate predictions in a target domain with limited labeled target data by exploiting abundant source and unlabeled target data. We study this problem under structural causal models (SCMs), which provide a statistical framework to describe distribution shifts between source and target domains as interventions in the data-generating process rather than ad hoc changes in model parameters. The central phenomenon is that, under low-dimensional interventions, source and unlabeled target data can help identify the high-dimensional shared structure, leaving only a low-dimensional target-specific correction to be learned from limited labeled target data. We formalize this principle for three canonical intervention models and propose the corresponding SSDA methods FT-DIP, FT-OLS-Src and FT-CIP. Under each intervention model, we demonstrate how extending an unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) method to SSDA can achieve minimax-optimal target performance with limited target labels, with the labeled-target sample complexity scaling with the intervention dimension rather than the ambient dimension. When the distribution shift is underspecified, we propose the Multi-Adaptive-Start Fine-Tuning (MASFT) algorithm, which fine-tunes from multiple adaptive starts and selects among them using a small target validation set, incurring only logarithmic overhead in the number of starts. We validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods through simulated and real data experiments.

Existing evaluations of tabular synthesis models rely primarily on low-order statistics and downstream task performance, leaving multivariate causal relationships that go beyond pairwise correlations largely unmeasured. We argue that a systematic evaluation on high-order structural information is a crucial first step in addressing this issue in tabular data synthesis. In this paper, we present high-order structural causal information as a natural form of prior knowledge and introduce a benchmark framework to evaluate tabular synthesis models. This framework allows us to generate benchmark datasets through a flexible range of data generation processes, allowing for the training of tabular synthesis models using these datasets for further evaluation. We propose multiple benchmark tasks, high-order metrics, and causal inference tasks as downstream tasks for evaluating the quality of synthetic data generated by the trained models. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the benchmark framework in evaluating the model's ability to capture high-order structural causal information. Furthermore, our benchmarking results provide an initial assessment of state-of-the-art tabular synthesis models. These results reveal significant gaps between ideal and actual performance and highlight how baseline methods differ. We position the framework as a controlled diagnostic benchmark for causal fidelity, complementing existing low-order and downstream evaluations. We open source the benchmark framework, including both code and data along with documentation, to support further research in this area.