Density Estimation

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) provides powerful tools to explore the shape and structure of data through topological features such as clusters, loops, and voids. Persistence diagrams are a cornerstone of TDA, capturing the evolution of these features across scales. While effective for analyzing individual manifolds, persistence diagrams do not account for interactions between pairs of them. Cross-persistence diagrams (cross-barcodes), introduced recently, address this limitation by characterizing relationships between topological features of two point clouds. In this work, we present the first systematic study of the density of cross-persistence diagrams. We prove its existence, establish theoretical foundations for its statistical use, and design the first machine learning framework for predicting cross-persistence density directly from point cloud coordinates and distance matrices. Our statistical approach enables the distinction of point clouds sampled from different manifolds by leveraging the linear characteristics of cross-persistence diagrams. Interestingly, we find that introducing noise can enhance our ability to distinguish point clouds, uncovering its novel utility in TDA applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods through experiments on diverse datasets, where our approach consistently outperforms existing techniques in density prediction and achieves superior results in point cloud distinction tasks. Our findings contribute to a broader understanding of cross-persistence diagrams and open new avenues for their application in data analysis, including potential insights into time-series domain tasks and the geometry of AI-generated texts. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Verdangeta/TDA_experiments

We study the problem of estimating multiple discrete unimodal distributions, motivated by search behavior analysis on a real-world platform. To incorporate prior knowledge of precedence relations among distributions, we impose stochastic order constraints and formulate the estimation task as a mixed-integer convex quadratic optimization problem. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets show that the proposed method reduces the Jensen-Shannon divergence by 2.2% on average (up to 6.3%) when the sample size is small, while performing comparably to existing methods when sufficient data are available.

We present Midicoth, a lossless compression system that introduces a micro-diffusion denoising layer for improving probability estimates produced by adaptive statistical models. In compressors such as Prediction by Partial Matching (PPM), probability estimates are smoothed by a prior to handle sparse observations. When contexts have been seen only a few times, this prior dominates the prediction and produces distributions that are significantly flatter than the true source distribution, leading to compression inefficiency. Midicoth addresses this limitation by treating prior smoothing as a shrinkage process and applying a reverse denoising step that corrects predicted probabilities using empirical calibration statistics. To make this correction data-efficient, the method decomposes each byte prediction into a hierarchy of binary decisions along a bitwise tree. This converts a single 256-way calibration problem into a sequence of binary calibration tasks, enabling reliable estimation of correction terms from relatively small numbers of observations. The denoising process is applied in multiple successive steps, allowing each stage to refine residual prediction errors left by the previous one. The micro-diffusion layer operates as a lightweight post-blend calibration stage applied after all model predictions have been combined, allowing it to correct systematic biases in the final probability distribution. Midicoth combines five fully online components: an adaptive PPM model, a long-range match model, a trie-based word model, a high-order context model, and the micro-diffusion denoiser applied as the final stage.

The Sun is observed in unprecedented detail, enabling studies of its activity on very small spatiotemporal scales. However, the large volume of data collected by our telescopes cannot be fully analyzed with conventional methods. Popular machine learning methods identify general trends from observations, but tend to overlook unusual events due to their low frequency of occurrence. We study the applicability of unsupervised probabilistic methods to efficiently identify rare events in multidimensional solar observations and optimize our computational resources to the study of these extreme phenomena. We introduce Inspectorch, an open-source framework that utilizes flow-based models: flexible density estimators capable of learning the multidimensional distribution of solar observations. Once optimized, it assigns a probability to each sample, allowing us to identify unusual events. We apply this approach by applying it to observations from the Hinode Spectro-Polarimeter, the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph, the Microlensed Hyperspectral Imager at Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope, the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager on board Solar Orbiter. We find that the algorithm assigns consistently lower probabilities to spectra that exhibit unusual features. For example, it identifies profiles with very strong Doppler shifts, uncommon broadening, and temporal dynamics associated with small-scale reconnection events, among others. As a result, Inspectorch demonstrates that density estimation using flow-based models offers a powerful approach to identifying rare events in large solar datasets. The resulting probabilistic anomaly scores allow computational resources to be focused on the most informative and physically relevant events. We make our Python package publicly available at https://github.com/cdiazbas/inspectorch.

We study density estimation in Kullback-Leibler divergence: given an i.i.d. sample from an unknown density $p^\star$, the goal is to construct an estimator $\widehat{p}$ such that $\mathrm{KL}(p^\star,\widehat{p})$ is small with high probability. We consider two fundamental settings involving a finite dictionary of densities: (i) model aggregation, where $p^\star$ belongs to the dictionary, and (ii) convex aggregation (mixture density estimation), where $p^\star$ is a mixture of densities from the dictionary. Crucially, we make no assumption on the base densities: their ratios may be unbounded and their supports may differ. For both problems, we identify the best possible high-probability guarantees in terms of the dictionary size, sample size, and confidence level. These optimal rates are higher than those achievable when density ratios are bounded by absolute constants; for mixture density estimation, they match existing lower bounds in the special case of discrete distributions. Our analysis of the mixture case hinges on two new covering results. First, we provide a sharp, distribution-free upper bound on the local Hellinger entropy of the class of mixtures of $M$ distributions. Second, we prove an optimal ratio covering theorem for convex sets: for every convex compact set $K \subset \mathbb{R}_+^d$, there exists a subset $A \subset K$ with at most $2^{O(d)}$ elements such that each element of $K$ is coordinate-wise dominated by an element of $A$ up to a universal constant factor. This geometric result is of independent interest; notably, it yields new cardinality estimates for $\varepsilon$-approximate Pareto sets in multi-objective optimization with convex feasible set.

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations and behavior under distributional shift remain poorly understood. In this work, we provide a principled statistical interpretation by proving that EDL training corresponds to amortized variational inference in a hierarchical Bayesian model with a tempered pseudo-likelihood. This perspective reveals a major drawback: standard EDL conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to systematic overconfidence on out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. To address this, we introduce Density-Informed Pseudo-count EDL (DIP-EDL), a new parametrization that decouples class prediction from the magnitude of uncertainty by separately estimating the conditional label distribution and the marginal covariate density. This separation preserves evidence in high-density regions while shrinking predictions toward a uniform prior for OOD data. Theoretically, we prove that DIP-EDL achieves asymptotic concentration. Empirically, we show that our method enhances interpretability and improves robustness and uncertainty calibration under distributional shift.

Normalizing flows are deep generative models that enable efficient likelihood estimation and sampling through invertible transformations. A key challenge is to design linear layers that enhance expressiveness while maintaining efficient computation of the Jacobian determinant and inverse. We introduce a novel invertible linear layer based on the product of circulant and diagonal matrices. This decomposition reduces parameter complexity from $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ to $\mathcal{O}(mn)$ using $m$ diagonal matrices and $m-1$ circulant matrices while still approximating general linear transformations. By leveraging the Fast Fourier Transform, our approach reduces the time complexity of matrix inversion from $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ to $\mathcal{O}(mn\log n)$ and that of computing the log-determinant from $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ to $\mathcal{O}(mn)$, where $n$ is the input dimension. We build upon this layer to develop Circulant-Diagonal Flow (CDFlow), which achieves strong density estimation on natural image datasets and effectively models data with inherent periodic structure. Furthermore, CDFlow significantly accelerates key operations in normalizing flows, providing practical benefits for scalable generative modeling.