Distribution Shift Detection

We present LatentDiff, a scalable framework for semantic dataset comparison that operates directly in the latent space of pretrained vision encoders. By combining sparse autoencoder-based divergence testing with density ratio estimation, LatentDiff identifies interpretable semantic differences between datasets at a fraction of the computational cost of caption-based alternatives. We also introduce Noisy-Diff, a benchmark capturing realistic sparse distribution shifts that cause existing methods to struggle. Experiments demonstrate that LatentDiff achieves superior accuracy while remaining robust to settings where an extremely small fraction of images (from 5% to <1% ) differ semantically.

Runtime monitoring of stochastic systems must distinguish nominal distributional relaxation from regime departure while controlling repeated-test false alarms under explicit validity assumptions. This paper links relative-entropy dissipation, information geometry, and sequential inference in a bounded first-passage monitoring architecture. For reversible Fokker--Planck dynamics, relative entropy to an invariant density is non-increasing; under exogenous forcing, its derivative decomposes into nominal dissipation and an information-space forcing term. The runtime layer uses Gaussian window surrogates, nominal-relative covariance shrinkage, a coordinate-consistent relative precision diagnostic, and randomized conformal ranks aggregated by a mixture power-martingale process. Analytical Ornstein--Uhlenbeck validation gives zero positive nominal Kullback--Leibler increments, forcing-identity residuals below 3.31 x 10^-6, and coordinate-invariance errors at numerical roundoff. On NSL-KDD, the monitor yields 0/100 alarms on internal nominal streams but 63/100 on official test-normal streams; post-change detection is 99.0% for seen and 98.53% for test-only attack types with median one-window delay. On UNSW-NB15, internal-null alarms are 0/100, whereas official test-normal alarms rise to 90/100; post-change detection is 81.33%, with 18.67% pre-change alarms. In these evaluations, calibration transport emerges as a major deployment constraint. No universal benchmark superiority, causal inference, or physical-work interpretation is claimed.

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection requires sensitivity to subtle shifts without overreacting to natural In-Distribution (ID) diversity. However, from the viewpoint of detection granularity, global representation inevitably suppress local OOD cues, while patch-based methods are unstable due to entangled spurious-correlation and noise. And neither them is effective in detecting compositional OODs composed of valid ID components. Inspired by recognition-by-components theory, we present a training-free Component-Based OOD Detection (CoOD) framework that addresses the existing limitations by decomposing inputs into functional components. To instantiate CoOD, we derive Component Shift Score (CSS) to detect local appearance shifts, and Compositional Consistency Score (CCS) to identify cross-component compositional inconsistencies. Empirically, CoOD achieves consistent improvements on both coarse- and fine-grained OOD detection.

Non-stationary sequences arise naturally in control, forecasting, and decision-making. The data-generating process shifts at unknown times, and models must detect the change, discard or downweight obsolete evidence, and adapt to new dynamics on the fly. Transformer-based foundation models increasingly rely on in-context learning for time series forecasting, tabular prediction, and continuous control. As these models are deployed in non-stationary environments, understanding their ability to detect and adapt to regime shifts is important. We formalize this as an in-context change-point detection problem and formally establish the existence of transformer models that solve this problem. Our construction demonstrates that model complexity, in layers and parameters, depends on the level of information available about the change-point location, from no knowledge to knowing exact timing. We validate our results with experiments on synthetic linear regression and linear dynamical systems, where trained transformers match the performance of optimal baselines across information levels. We also show that encoding and incorporating changepoint knowledge indeed improves the real-world performance of a pretrained foundation models on infectious disease forecasting and on financial volatility forecasting around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements without retraining, demonstrating practical applicability to real-world regime changes.

In computer vision and machine learning for geographic data, out-of-domain generalization is a pervasive challenge, arising from uneven global data coverage and distribution shifts across geographic regions. Though models are frequently trained in one region and deployed in another, there is no principled method for determining when this cross-region adaptation will be successful. A well-defined notion of distance between distributions can effectively quantify how different a new target domain is compared to the domains used for model training, which in turn could support model training and deployment decisions. In this paper, we propose a strategy for computing distances between geospatial domains that leverages geographic information with Optimal Transport methods (GeoSpOT). In our experiments, GeoSpOT distances emerge as effective predictors of cross-domain transfer difficulty. We further demonstrate that embeddings from pretrained location encoders provide information comparable to image/text embeddings, despite relying solely on longitude-latitude pairs as input. This allows users to get an approximation of out-of-domain performance for geospatial models, even when the exact downstream task is unknown, or no task-specific data is available. Building on these findings, we show that GeoSpOT distances can preemptively guide data selection and enable predictive tools to analyze regions where a model is likely to underperform.

State-of-the-art post-hoc out-of-distribution detection methods rely on intermediate layer activation editing. However, they exhibit inconsistent performance across datasets and models. We show that this instability is driven by differences in the activation distributions, and identify a failure mode of scaling-based methods that arises when penultimate layer activations are not rectified. Motivated by this analysis, we propose RAS, a hyperparameter-free post-hoc method that replaces sorted activation magnitudes with a fixed in-distribution reference profile. Our simple plug-and-play method shows strong and consistent performance across datasets and architectures without assumptions on the penultimate layer activation function, and without requiring any hyperparameter tuning, while empirically preserving in-distribution classification accuracy. We further analyze what drives the improvement, showing that both inhibiting and exciting activation shifts independently contribute to better out-of-distribution discrimination.