Incentives

Scheduled batch jobs are widely used on asynchronous computing platforms to execute enterprise applications such as promotional notifications and candidate pre-computation for recommender systems. Delivering or updating information at the right time is important for user experience and execution impact, yet providing a versatile, personalized execution time optimization solution across diverse product scenarios while maintaining reasonable infrastructure costs remains challenging. In this paper, we present a deployed system that serves billions of users daily, combining learning-to-rank with a "best time policy" for execution time selection. We describe the four-stage evolution of our approach: from heuristic peak-hour rules, to pointwise ML-based activity pattern predictions, to a linear signal assembler with globally fixed weights, and finally to a contextual ensemble learner that produces per-user adaptive fusion weights via a neural policy network trained with listwise learning-to-rank objectives. We further report the discovery of cross-use-case cannibalization effects and introduce a coordination system to mitigate the problem. Our production experiments demonstrate measurable improvements in both execution efficiency and downstream product impact. We share deployment lessons including failure analyses and design decisions accumulated over four years of operating this system at scale. To our knowledge, this represents the first ML-based multi-tenant execution time optimization system deployed across different product domains at industrial scale.

This paper evaluates how reward function choice shapes the performance and behavior of LLM forecasters. We compare five proper scoring rules as training objectives for binary forecasts of resolved real-world events. Although the rules share the same theoretical incentive for truthful probability reporting, the resulting models differ in calibration, probability use, and estimated profiles of bias, information, and noise, with smaller differences in aggregate accuracy and discrimination. The Brier-trained model has the lowest observed Brier score and highest AUC-ROC, while the log-trained model has the highest observed log score and lowest calibration error. Models with similar aggregate performance also reach that performance through different combinations of bias, information, and noise. Proper scoring rules therefore need not behave interchangeably as training objectives. Reward choice may shape not only how well an LLM forecasts, but how its forecasting errors are structured.