Thompson Sampling

Randomized controlled trials typically assume that prognostic covariates are known and available at no cost. In practice, obtaining high-dimensional pretreatment data is costly, forcing a trade-off between covariate-adaptive precision and a measurement budget. We introduce Dynamic Adaptive Rerandomization via Thompson Sampling (DARTS), which treats covariate acquisition as a sequential optimization problem embedded within a design-based causal inference task. A budgeted combinatorial Thompson sampler learns which covariates are most prognostic across successive batches; selected covariates then drive rerandomization and regression adjustment to reduce batch-level average treatment effect variance. Our primary theoretical contribution is a decoupling result: adaptive covariate selection based on past batches preserves batch-level randomization validity, and the cumulative inverse-variance weighted estimator achieves at least nominal asymptotic coverage. We further derive a Bayes risk bound for the acquisition layer that matches the minimax lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Empirically, DARTS systematically concentrates the budget on informative features, significantly closing the efficiency gap to oracle designs while maintaining strict inferential validity.

We study the $(\varepsilon, δ)$-PAC policy identification problem in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes. Existing approaches provide finite-time guarantees for approximate settings ($\varepsilon>0$) but suffer from high computational cost, rendering them hard to implement, and also suffer from suboptimal dependence on $\log(1/δ)$. We propose a randomized and computationally efficient algorithm for best policy identification that combines posterior sampling with an online learning algorithm to guide exploration in the MDP. Our method achieves asymptotic optimality in sample complexity, also in terms of posterior contraction rate, and runs in $O(S^2AH)$ per episode, matching standard model-based approaches. Unlike prior algorithms such as MOCA and PEDEL, our guarantees remain meaningful in the asymptotic regime and avoid sub-optimal polynomial dependence on $\log(1/δ)$. Our results provide both theoretical insights and practical tools for efficient policy identification in tabular MDPs.

Preference feedback, in the form of pairwise comparisons rather than scalar scores, has seen increasing use in applications such as human-, laboratory-, and expert-in-the-loop design, as well as scientific discovery. We propose a Thompson Sampling (TS) approach to Bayesian optimization with preferential feedback that models comparisons using a monotone link on latent utility differences and leverages the dueling kernel induced by a base kernel. We provide a finite-time analysis showing that the performance of the proposed method matches that of standard TS for conventional Bayesian optimization with scalar feedback. The analysis exploits the anchor invariance of TS for challenger selection and introduces a double-TS pairing variant. We also demonstrate the performance of the method on both synthetic and real-world examples.

We prove that Thompson sampling exhibits $\tilde{O}(σd \sqrt{T} + d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(Σ_0)})$ Bayesian regret in the linear-Gaussian bandit with a $\mathcal{N}(μ_0, Σ_0)$ prior distribution on the coefficients, where $d$ is the dimension, $T$ is the time horizon, $r$ is the maximum $\ell_2$ norm of the actions, and $σ^2$ is the noise variance. In contrast to existing regret bounds, this shows that to within logarithmic factors, the prior-dependent burn-in'' term $d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(Σ_0)}$ decouples additively from the minimax (long run) regret $σd \sqrt{T}$. Previous regret bounds exhibit a multiplicative dependence on these terms. We establish these results via a new elliptical potential'' lemma, and also provide a lower bound indicating that the burn-in term is unavoidable.

This paper develops a framework for learning in discounted infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with Borel state and action spaces, whose rewards and transitions depend on an unknown parameter.To analyze sampling-based adaptive learning algorithms in this setting, we introduce a canonical probability space that explicitly incorporates sampled parameters into the history of the process. As a performance criterion, we adopt the per-period suboptimality gap used in discounted-MDP regret analysis and specialize it to our parametrized Bayesian setting. Since this quantity captures the remaining loss in future performance from the current period onward, we refer to it as residual regret. We use the expected residual regret to connect discounted-MDP regret analysis with asymptotic discount optimality from adaptive control and the temporal-difference error perspective from reinforcement learning. We then focus on Thompson sampling (TS) in discounted infinite-horizon MDPs. Under assumptions that extend those used in prior work on finite state and action spaces to the Borel setting, we show that the expected residual regret for TS converges to zero exponentially fast. We further show that, under mild conditions ensuring the existence of the relevant limits, the ample-path residual regret converges to zero almost surely and TS achieves complete learning.

Thompson sampling (TS) is one of the most popular and earliest algorithms to solve stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. We consider a variant of TS, named $α$-TS, where we use a fractional or $α$-posterior ($α\in(0,1)$) instead of the standard posterior distribution. To compute an $α$-posterior, the likelihood in the definition of the standard posterior is tempered with a factor $α$. For $α$-TS we obtain both instance-dependent $\mathcal{O}\left(\sum_{k \neq i^*} Δ_k\left(\frac{\log(T)}{C(α)Δ_k^2} + \frac{1}{2} \right)\right)$ and instance-independent $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{KT\log K})$ frequentist regret bounds under very mild conditions on the prior and reward distributions, where $Δ_k$ is the gap between the true mean rewards of the $k^{th}$ and the best arms, and $C(α)$ is a known constant. Both the sub-Gaussian and exponential family models satisfy our general conditions on the reward distribution. Our conditions on the prior distribution can be easily satisfied by a density that is positive, continuous, and bounded. We also establish another instance-dependent regret upper bound that matches (up to constants) to that of improved UCB [Auer and Ortner, 2010]. Our regret analysis carefully adapts and combines recent theoretical developments in the non-asymptotic concentration analysis and Bernstein-von Mises type results for the $α$-posterior distribution. Moreover, our analysis does not require additional structural properties such as closed-form posteriors or conjugate priors.