Double Fuzzy Probabilistic Interval Linguistic Term Set and a Dynamic Fuzzy Decision Making Model based on Markov Process with tts Application in Multiple Criteria Group Decision Making

As intelligent systems are increasingly implemented in our society to make autonomous decisions, their commitment to human values raises serious concerns. Their alignment with human values remains a critical challenge because it can jeopardise the integrity and security of citizens. For this reason, an innovative human-centred and values-driven approach to decision making is required. In this work, we introduce the Fuzzy-Unweighted Value-Based Decision Making (FUW-VBDM) framework, where agents incorporate both quantitative and qualitative criteria to generate human-centred decisions. We also address the normative bias introduced by stakeholders with arbitrary weights by removing prior weights and introducing a fuzzy domain of decision variables defined for a score function. This concept allows us to generalise any VBDM problem as the search for feasible solutions when optimising the score in the weight domain. To provide a solution to FUW-VBDM, we present Rankzzy, a customizable unweighted ranking method that integrates fuzzy-based reasoning to quantify uncertainty. We mathematically prove the consistency of the Rankzzy for any admissible configuration selected by stakeholders. We show the applicability of our method through an illustrative case study, which we also use as a running example. The evaluation conducted indicates a reduced computational cost in large-scale value-based decision-making problems and a strong rank performance regarding existing approaches when employing the aggregation via Pythagorean means.

Fuzzy Integral (FI) based aggregation provides a powerful mechanism for nuanced aggregation, for example, in ensemble approaches or decision-level fusion more generally. The main challenge of this approach is the appropriate parametrization of the Fuzzy Measure (FM), which captures the worths of the individual components--and their combinations--which are being fused. Here, widely used approaches including the Sugeno-$λ$ and Decomposable FMs, parametrize the FM by extrapolating from the densities, i.e. the weights associated with individual sources, while respecting the FM's monotonicity constraint. This paper articulates that this information is, in general, insufficient to uniquely identify a discrete FM; but shows how an interval-valued FM can indeed be determined uniquely. We proceed to show how the incorporation of additional information beyond the above, such as the choice of a specific FI and a dataset, then allows for obtaining even more specific interval-valued FMs. In practice, establishing the quality of an empirically determined FM is not trivial. To help address this, we show how the likelihood with which a resulting interval FM encompasses the ideal', i.e. the commonly intangible, best, or ground-truth numeric FM, can be determined, producing a confidence interval at a given confidence level. Finally, based on a series of experiments, we demonstrate empirically that the Choquet FI output based on this FM can also be regarded as the confidence interval for the ideal' information fusion result, providing a novel means to characterize FI fusion outcomes a priori and charting a pathway for future research.

Plugging predictions of unknown parameters into downstream optimization problems, often referred to as the ``predict-then-optimize'' paradigm, has long been a standard approach in decision-making under uncertainty. However, improved predictive accuracy does not, in general, translate into improved decision quality. This disconnect has motivated growing interest in decision-focused learning (DFL) within the operations research community. This tutorial reviews recent developments in DFL and highlights key methodological insights, with a particular focus on stochastic linear programming as the downstream decision-making problem. We discuss why several widely used tools in traditional statistical learning are not directly suited to decision-focused settings and must be rethought, including (i) data collection strategies driven purely by predictive uncertainty and (ii) distributional distance measures such as the Wasserstein distance. We summarize properties of DFL that distinguish it from conventional predictive modeling and provide insights into the development of new decision-focused tools.