Restricted Bernoulli Matrix Factorization: Balancing the trade-off between prediction accuracy and coverage in classification based collaborative filtering

Recommender systems are widely used in the digital landscape to match users with content fitting their preferences. However, growing concerns about fake accounts, strategic manipulation, and other deceptive online behavior place increasing pressure on the reliability of these systems. A common statistical approach behind recommender systems is so-called matrix completion, which predicts how users would rate items they have not yet consumed based on patterns in observed ratings. Realistically applying matrix completion methods requires jointly addressing several overlooked challenges: (i) ratings on discrete scales (such as 1--5 stars); (ii) the presence of malicious users who deliberately manipulate the system to their advantage through fake profiles; (iii) ratings missing not at random since users are more likely to consume items they expect to like; and (iv) fostering transparency, reproducibility, and stability. We jointly address these challenges by proposing a novel method, Robust Discrete Matrix Completion (RDMC), designed to capture the key characteristics of sparse rating data while remaining reliable in the presence of manipulation. We evaluate RDMC through two case studies and carefully designed simulation experiments. Our work thereby offers a statistically-sound blueprint for future studies on how to evaluate recommender systems under realistic scenarios.

A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken. Empirical risk minimization (ERM) controls average loss but not this failure directly, while calibration, uncertainty estimation, conformal risk control, and selective prediction methods target related reliability properties rather than bounding the joint failure event during training. We propose ReliableNet, which constrains the Joint Confident-Wrong (JCW) probability, the probability that a prediction is simultaneously confident and incorrect, below a user-specified risk budget $α\in(0,1)$. We formulate this as a chance-constrained ERM problem, use a conservative smooth inner approximation whose population feasibility implies the original JCW constraint. Across four tabular and two image datasets, ReliableNet is the only method certified within the JCW budget for every dataset and seed in distribution, when compared against baselines spanning ERM, post-hoc calibration, conformal risk control, and selective prediction. Under demographic, ambiguity, spurious-correlation, novel-class, and covariate shifts, it achieves the lowest empirical JCW among the compared methods while remaining very competitive in accuracy, coverage, calibration, and selective prediction. Risk-coverage results further indicate that ReliableNet achieves better selective ranking than the benchmark methods on most datasets. Overall, ReliableNet provides a principled approach to trustworthy classification.

Modern recommender systems are typically based on deep learning (DL) models, where a dense encoder learns representations of users and items. As a result, these systems often suffer from the black-box nature and computational complexity of the underlying models, making it difficult to systematically enhance their recommendation capabilities. To address this problem, we propose Probabilistic Residual Learning (PRL), a causal Bayesian recommendation model that models the residual between ground-truth and base predictions, enabling targeted refinement of existing systems. Specifically, PRL (1) probabilistically groups users for localized residual modeling, (2) models domain-level confounders that influence user and item representations, and (3) aggregates cluster-specific residual predictions over the confounders using do-calculus. Experiments demonstrate that our plug-and-play PRL is compatible with various base deep learning recommender systems, improving their performance while automatically discovering meaningful user clusters.