GenTL: A General Transfer Learning Model for Building Thermal Dynamics

The building energy community lacks a foundational thermal model, i.e., a single pretrained model capable of generalizing across diverse buildings, climates, and control strategies without building-specific calibration. Achieving this vision requires architectural principles that capture universal thermal dynamics rather than memorizing building-specific patterns. We take a step toward this goal by presenting a physics-informed transformer architecture that embeds domain knowledge, e.g., derivative enrichment and Euler-based numerical integration, into a decoder-only framework. We incorporate static building features extracted from simulation models and employ Rotary Position Embedding attention to capture temporal dependencies. Evaluated on the CityLearn dataset spanning 247 residential buildings across three climate zones, our model achieves one-step prediction accuracy (RMSE of 0.30°C in Texas, 0.29°C in Vermont) while outperforming both traditional baselines and fine-tuned Time-Series Foundation Models. We also demonstrate zero-shot transferability: models trained on as few as two buildings generalize to unseen buildings and climate zones without fine-tuning. Despite the limitation of simulated residential buildings, our results establish physics-informed architectural principles as a promising foundation for universal building thermal models.

The widespread adoption of data-driven, energy-efficient model predictive control (MPC) in buildings remains hindered by substantial effort to collect data and train models for individual buildings. Transfer learning (TL) has consequently gained increasing attention for target building modeling, as it reduces data requirements and modeling effort by reusing pretrained source models. However, these TL models are typically evaluated only on prediction accuracy in the target, without testing downstream control performance. To address this gap, we apply a state-of-the-art TL approach - pretraining a generalized model on multiple source buildings using standard operational data - within an MPC setup in a target building. We show that this approach is insufficient to achieve satisfactory control performance. As a solution, we introduce generalized models pretrained on excitation-based operational source data - purposefully probed inputs that explore the building's state-action space. For evaluation, we apply the generalized models via zero-shot (i.e., without fine-tuning) to 32 simulated target buildings and assess MPC performance. Our results show that excitation-based generalized models achieve the strongest control performance among all benchmarks, outperforming an online linear model-based MPC and a PI controller by 6.4% and 36.9%, respectively. By combining strong control performance with the ability to generalize across multiple buildings, without requiring any target-specific data, our approach reduces MPC setup cost and simplifies its widespread deployment in the building sector.

Scaling data-driven energy forecasting to district level requires models that can be re-used across buildings with minimal target-domain data and honest uncertainty estimates. We present an uncertainty-aware transfer learning (TL) framework for cross-building energy forecasting based on the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), evaluated on a newly released high-resolution real sub-meter dataset: an educational building at Aalborg University, Denmark (source) and the multi-typology NEST building at EMPA, Switzerland (target). We introduce the Transfer Robustness Index (TRI), an architecture-agnostic metric for quantifying generalization quality across domain gaps. A four-strategy layer-freezing ablation shows that Probe-Only fine-tuning, updating only 455 output-layer parameters out of 806K, achieves the best transfer quality (TRI = 3,097), outperforming full fine-tuning and suggesting that TFT encoders learn transferable temporal representations. Monte Carlo Dropout yields a prediction interval coverage probability of 93.2%, close to the nominal 95% target. A data-scarcity analysis further shows monotonic improvement with increasing target-domain data, providing practical guidance for district energy deployment.