Uncertainty-Aware Transfer Learning for Cross-Building Energy Forecasting: Toward Robust and Scalable District-Level Energy Management

Traditional energy forecasting solutions rely on task-specific supervision and energy asset representations, limiting transferability and the ability to capture general temporal dynamics across heterogeneous assets. We address this by proposing a distributed Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) for self-supervised learning from heterogeneous energy time-series. The framework predicts latent representations of masked temporal segments while integrating temporal observations and contextual information within a shared embedding space. To prevent representation collapse, training combines a latent-space predictive objective with covariance and temporal variance regularization. The evaluation was conducted on energy consumption and generation datasets under data-degradation scenarios and compared with a Transformer forecasting baseline. The learned representations remained stable (cosine similarity $\approx 0.98$; effective rank 185-235). JEPA achieved performance comparable to a Transformer on building energy data, higher $R^2$ in 3/5 consumer clusters, and outperformed the baseline on 9/10 unseen PVs ($R^2$=0.73-0.88 vs. <0.45), while showing greater robustness to missing data.

Transfer Learning (TL) is an emerging field in modeling building thermal dynamics. This method reduces the data required for a data-driven model of a target building by leveraging knowledge from a source building. Consequently, it enables the creation of data-efficient models that can be used for advanced control and fault detection & diagnosis. A major limitation of the TL approach is its inconsistent performance across different sources. Although accurate source-building selection for a target is crucial, it remains a persistent challenge. We present GenTL, a general transfer learning model for single-family houses in Central Europe. GenTL can be efficiently fine-tuned to a large variety of target buildings. It is pretrained on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with data from 450 different buildings. The general transfer learning model eliminates the need for source-building selection by serving as a universal source for fine-tuning. Comparative analysis with conventional single-source to single-target TL demonstrates the efficacy and reliability of the general pretraining approach. Testing GenTL on 144 target buildings for fine-tuning reveals an average prediction error (RMSE) reduction of 42.1 % compared to fine-tuning single-source models.

The building energy community lacks a foundational thermal model, i.e., a single pretrained model capable of generalizing across diverse buildings, climates, and control strategies without building-specific calibration. Achieving this vision requires architectural principles that capture universal thermal dynamics rather than memorizing building-specific patterns. We take a step toward this goal by presenting a physics-informed transformer architecture that embeds domain knowledge, e.g., derivative enrichment and Euler-based numerical integration, into a decoder-only framework. We incorporate static building features extracted from simulation models and employ Rotary Position Embedding attention to capture temporal dependencies. Evaluated on the CityLearn dataset spanning 247 residential buildings across three climate zones, our model achieves one-step prediction accuracy (RMSE of 0.30°C in Texas, 0.29°C in Vermont) while outperforming both traditional baselines and fine-tuned Time-Series Foundation Models. We also demonstrate zero-shot transferability: models trained on as few as two buildings generalize to unseen buildings and climate zones without fine-tuning. Despite the limitation of simulated residential buildings, our results establish physics-informed architectural principles as a promising foundation for universal building thermal models.