A Versatile Variational Quantum Kernel Framework for Non-Trivial Classification

Quantum kernel methods have been proposed as a promising approach for leveraging near-term quantum computers for supervised learning, yet rigorous benchmarks against strong classical baselines remain scarce. We present a comprehensive empirical study of quantum kernel support vector machines (QSVMs) across nine binary classification datasets, four quantum feature maps, three classical kernels, and multiple noise models, totalling 970 experiments with strict nested cross-validation. Our analysis spans four phases: (i) statistical significance testing, revealing that none of 29 pairwise quantum-classical comparisons reach significance at $α= 0.05$; (ii) learning curve analysis over six training fractions, showing steeper quantum slopes on six of eight datasets that nonetheless fail to close the gap to the best classical baseline; (iii) hardware validation on IBM ibm_fez (Heron r2), demonstrating kernel fidelity $r \geq 0.976$ across six experiments; and (iv) seed sensitivity analysis confirming reproducibility (mean CV 1.4%). A Kruskal-Wallis factorial analysis reveals that dataset choice dominates performance variance ($\varepsilon^2 = 0.73$), while kernel type accounts for only 9%. Spectral analysis offers a mechanistic explanation: current quantum feature maps produce eigenspectra that are either too flat or too concentrated, missing the intermediate profile of the best classical kernel, the radial basis function (RBF). Quantum kernel training (QKT) via kernel-target alignment yields the single competitive result -- balanced accuracy 0.968 on breast cancer -- but with ~2,000x computational overhead. Our findings provide actionable guidelines for quantum kernel research. The complete benchmark suite is publicly available to facilitate reproduction and extension.

Quantum kernel methods (QKMs) have emerged as a prominent framework for supervised quantum machine learning. Unlike variational quantum algorithms, which rely on gradient-based optimisation and may suffer from issues such as barren plateaus, non-variational QKMs employ fixed quantum feature maps, with model selection performed classically via convex optimisation and cross-validation. This separation of quantum feature embedding from classical training ensures stable optimisation while leveraging quantum circuits to encode data in high-dimensional Hilbert spaces. In this review, we provide a thorough analysis of non-variational supervised QKMs, covering their foundations in classical kernel theory, constructions of fidelity and projected quantum kernels, and methods for their estimation in practice. We examine frameworks for assessing quantum advantage, including generalisation bounds and necessary conditions for separation from classical models, and analyse key challenges such as exponential concentration, dequantisation via tensor-network methods, and the spectral properties of kernel integral operators. We further discuss structured problem classes that may enable advantage, and synthesise insights from comparative and hardware studies. Overall, this review aims to clarify the regimes in which QKMs may offer genuine advantages, and to delineate the conceptual, methodological, and technical obstacles that must be overcome for practical quantum-enhanced learning.

Kernel methods are powerful tools in machine learning but commonly used full-Gram kernels face three key limitations: (1) quadratic scaling with training set size; (2) the use of fixed, non-trainable kernels; and (3) the absence of an intrinsic formulation for multiclass classification. We present McQuack, a trainable quantum kernel method for multiclass problems that achieves linear scaling in the number of training samples. This is accomplished by replacing the full training-set Gram matrix with a trainable sample-to-(class-centroid) fidelity matrix. We evaluate the model in simulation and on 124 qubits of two IBM devices, across more than 150 datasets. In simulation, McQuack outperforms existing "pure" quantum baselines, while results from hardware inference -- obtained without training -- achieve performance similar to an RBF kernel. Finally, we study the trainability of the model and observe no evidence of barren plateaus in our experiments with up to 13 qubits, and highlight the importance of parameter initialization for successful optimization.