When does Subgroup Balance Matter? Predicting Performance Sensitivity from Latent Separability

Attributes describing data content and context can induce diverse imbalance patterns that go beyond label imbalance alone. However, existing studies primarily address label imbalance while overlooking data attributes, such as topics and demographics, which can induce meaningful subgroup structure while causing model degradation on underrepresented subgroups. We propose Attribute-Agnostic Imbalance Augmentation (AIA$^{2}$), a framework for improving model robustness under varying subgroup imbalances without explicit subgroup annotations. AIA$^{2}$ automatically discovers varying imbalances via latent semantic distributions, obtains slices with both learning difficulty and subgroup imbalance deficits, and deploys a large language model (LLM) for subgroup-aware imbalance augmentation. We have evaluated AIA$^{2}$ on 5 popular corpora with rich domains and their attribute values, covering social issues and diverse topics. Results show improved performance on the lowest-performing subgroups and consistent gains over competitive baselines. Ablation studies confirm complementary contributions from each component, and additional analyses show that AIA$^{2}$ provides a practical and consistent way to improve worst-group robustness under data subgroup imbalance. Code is available at https://github.com/trust-nlp/AIA2-Subgroup-Robustness.

Foundation models are increasingly adapted for downstream medical imaging tasks, yet the influence of the chosen adaptation strategy on subgroup fairness remains poorly understood. We investigate how three parameter-efficient adaptation techniques, including linear heads on the raw CLS token, an MLP, and an attention-pooling module over multi-layer patch features, affect both pathology classification performance and subgroup disparities when applied to the frozen Rad-DINO chest X-ray encoder. Using MIMIC-CXR, we evaluate eight pathologies across race, sex, and imaging-view subgroups on a prevalence-preserving, demographically balanced test set, and additionally probe how strongly each adapter encodes protected attributes. We find that attention pooling achieves the strongest overall discriminative performance and encodes attributes, particularly race, most strongly, but that improved overall performance does not consistently reduce subgroup disparities. Notably, stronger attribute encoding did not correspond to larger disparities: early network layers encoded race most weakly yet produced the largest subgroup performance gaps. Exploring different attention-pooling layer combinations further revealed no consistent relationship between the layers pooled, attribute encoding strength, and subgroup fairness. Our results indicate that richer, more expressive representations can improve accuracy while leaving fairness implications task-dependent and unpredictable, which must be assessed directly and per-task rather than inferred from encoding strength or overall performance alone.

We study robust generalization under spurious correlations: tasks where a shortcut feature is correlated with the true label in training but anti-correlated in an adversarial held-out split. Varying the spurious ratio $r$ (the fraction of training examples where shortcut = true label) and model capacity, we find a counterintuitive result: data imbalance promotes generalization in sufficiently capable models. On a synthetic task where the true label is sum parity of an integer sequence and the shortcut is the parity of the maximum-valued element, a 2-layer, 2-head transformer generalized (reached $100\%$ adversarial accuracy) in 0% of seeds at $r{=}0.50$ but 77% of seeds at $r{=}0.90$. The effect is absent in 1-layer models, where imbalance instead traps the model on the shortcut. Through mechanistic analysis -- gradient conflict dynamics, circuit evolution, and QK/OV circuit ablations -- we characterize a mechanistic pathway consistent with imbalance promoting generalization.