The Skeletal Trap: Mapping Spatial Inequality and Ghost Stops in Ankara's Transit Network

New York City implemented the nation's first cordon-based congestion pricing program in January 2025, providing an opportunity to evaluate how system-wide urban mobility responds to large-scale pricing interventions. Because such policies generate spillovers across modes and locations, credible control groups are difficult to construct. We address this challenge using time series foundation models to generate probabilistic counterfactual demand forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. Applying this framework to bus, subway, and aggregate trip volume data, we find that post-policy bus and subway ridership increased significantly relative to expected no-policy demand, while overall travel demand decreased modestly. The effects are spatially heterogeneous: while reductions in overall travel demand are concentrated within the Congestion Relief Zone, transit gains extend beyond Manhattan's core. Socio-demographic analyses further reveal uneven adaptation across neighborhoods, highlighting spatial equity implications. Our framework provides a scalable approach for the uncertainty-aware evaluation of system-wide urban interventions when clean control groups are unavailable.

City-scale autonomous vehicle fleet coordinators are typically optimized for aggregate travel time, yet fleet averages conceal how delay is distributed across trips and regions. We conduct a distributional audit on three real-city road-network and taxi-demand datasets from Manhattan, Chicago, and San Francisco. The audit reveals pervasive trip-length inequity whose direction depends on the city and coordinator. After accounting for trip length, spatial inequity becomes more pronounced as demand grows and is consistently stronger when trips are grouped by origin rather than destination. These findings motivate SPatially Aware RErouting (SPARE), a budgeted online coordination framework that assigns limited replanning capacity to delayed vehicles and redirects them using recently observed waiting pressure. SPARE provides a per-review decision guarantee and explicitly bounds online route updates. Experiments on all three datasets against six representative baselines show that SPARE delivers the strongest joint efficiency-fairness performance while retaining city-scale scalability. The results demonstrate that bounded congestion-responsive rerouting improves performance and equity without full-fleet replanning.

Accurate modeling of human mobility is critical for tackling urban planning and public health challenges. In undeveloped regions, the absence of comprehensive travel surveys necessitates reconstructing mobility networks from publicly available data. Here we develop neuroGravity, a physics-informed deep learning model that reliably reconstructs mobility flows from limited observations and transfers to unobserved cities. Using only urban facility and population distributions, we find that neuroGravity's regional representations strongly correlate with socioeconomic and livability status, offering scalable proxies for costly surveys. Furthermore, we uncover that spatial income segregation plays a key role in model transferability: mobility networks are most reliably reconstructed when target cities share similar segregation levels with the source. We design an index to quantify this segregation and accurately predict transferability. Finally, we generate mobility flow proxies for over 1,200 cities worldwide, highlighting neuroGravity's potential to mitigate critical data shortages in resource-limited, underdeveloped areas.